Subtitle: an emergency 200 comment update from the road.
What to say about August sales? By all counts it's a sales disaster. Never mind that you can still get 2.99% on a 5 year fixed, people just aren't buying anymore, and August sales are the second lowest in a decade. The VREB maintains this is a flat, stable market; which I assume is about as positive as a flat, stable reading on a heart monitor.
Where have prices gone? Nowhere fast, as DavidL points out with a chart of the last eight years of August prices. There is certainly weakness in the past few years, but not a lot of movement yet. These donkeys will need a prod before they move.
The new rules do seem to be having an effect. Anecdotally we've seen more offers fall through due to financing, and our mortgage broker is seeing the same: "The market is turning out to be a quite soft as approving mortgages for clients has become tougher on all fronts… Clients who would have easily been approved under the old rules are now getting turned down under the tighter requirements."
And it's not over yet. OSFI rules are coming into effect and cash back mortgages are becoming endangered.
It's going to be an interesting fall. Just don't expect it to be exciting.