Nov 26, Monday Market Update

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

November 2012 month to date

Net Unconditional Sales: 289 (210, 140, 40)

New Listings: 594 (451, 323, 116)

Active Listings:  4525 (4577, 4648, 4397)

Sales to new listings ratio: 49% (47%, 43%, 34%)

November 2011

Net Unconditional Sales: 482

New Listings: 847

Active Listings: 4329

Sales to new listings ratio: 57%

Sales to active listings ratio: 11% or 9 MOI

Not much to say about that.  Sales are down significantly YoY, while listings are almost on pace.  I'm thinking north of 11 MOI for the month.

The mortgage industry continues to hyperventilate about the rules and cry government interference in a market that only exists because of said interference.  Luckily some cooler heads are out there, including CIBC's Benjamin Tal, and suprisingly, the head of Royal LePage, who said

“I’m being contrary again. I think the impact of mortgage regulation is being blamed far too often these days in what is clearly just a natural cyclical slowdown in the market driven by overpriced homes. We were due for a slowdown. The timing was unfortunate but it’s not a major event. I think chances of it (the regulations) being reversed are close to zero.”

In other news, the Bank of England poached Mark Carney.   I wonder what this means for the Bank of Canada's rate position.. 

Nov 19 Monday Market Update

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

November 2012 month to date

Net Unconditional Sales: 210 (140, 40)

New Listings: 451 (323, 116)

Active Listings:  4577 (4648, 4397)

Sales to new listings ratio: 47% (43%, 34%)

November 2011

Net Unconditional Sales: 482

New Listings: 847

Active Listings: 4329

Sales to new listings ratio: 57%

Sales to active listings ratio: 11% or 9 MOI

Just over halfway through the business days of the month and we're on-track for about 400 sales, or continued sluggishness.

Meanwhile, the wailing and teeth gnashing about the new mortgage rules continues amongst those that stand to lose from them.  Some interesting tidbits from that article:

“…Simulations indicate that on average (based on 2010 real mortgage data), the additional down payment required is about $25,000, 7% of the purchase price.....  If we assume that these households can devote 10% of their pre-tax incomes to enlarging their down payments, on average it will take 3.5 years to re-qualify"

Looks like this time the hit is larger, and those people knocked to the sidelines will take quite a long time to recover.  This is all keeping in mind that this is under best case conditions of continued low interest rates and an optimistic savings rate.  

Nov 13 Weekly Market Update

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

November 2012 month to date

Net Unconditional Sales: 140 (40)

New Listings: 323 (116)

Active Listings:  4648 (4397)

Sales to new listings ratio: 43% (34%)

November 2011

Net Unconditional Sales: 482

New Listings: 847

Active Listings: 4329

Sales to new listings ratio: 57%

Sales to active listings ratio: 11% or 9 MOI

Big jump in active listings from last week.  Not sure how that works exactly, since last week there were 207 new listings added to 4397 active listings which adds up to 4604.  And yet we have 4648?  Some BOMs would add to that number, but what about all the properties that went off market in the last week?

We're on track for 350-420 sales this month depending on how you project.  Another month of sky high MOI for sure.

Monday market update: don't wait till spring to sell

This week's VREB Monday numbers thanks to Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

November 2012 month to date

Net Unconditional Sales: 40 

New Listings: 116 

Active Listings: 4397

Sales to new listings ratio: 34% 

November 2011

Net Unconditional Sales: 482

New Listings: 847

Active Listings: 4329

Sales to new listings ratio: 57%

Sales to active listings ratio: 11% or 9.0 MOI

Canada braces as housing slowdown takes hold (h/t koozdra)

That's about as bold a headline as we've seen in some time. 

These quotes are just gold, especially coming from a local agent:

"Personally I don't see any revitalization of the market in the near future" - investors have left the market

“Sellers will commonly say, ’I’m going to wait until the spring, when the market is better.’ And I warn them that it could be worse... And of course buyers are saying ’It looks like things are bad, I’m going to hold off until the market drops another 10 or 20%.”’

When was the last time you heard an agent use the pronoun another in relation to a significant market drop? 

I know, I know, there's more than a few folks out there telling themselves they don't have to sell so they don't have to accept a lower price. Fair enough.

But remember: it's the homes that sell that set the market value of the homes that don't. 

Victorian's got away with a temporary drop in 2008/09. Me thinks this time it's different. 

October Market - Spooky Scary

Another month, another deterioration in market conditions in Victoria.  It's so boring out there that we were reduced to arguing about Alberta for the week.

From our previous year of inventory, we have advanced even further to 13.1 MOI for the entire region. The only other time in VREB recorded history that we've had higher MOI was in fall of 2008 when everyone was convinced that we were heading into another great depression.  That October our MOI was 14.8 and prices were dropping.

Of course this is for the overall market, and Just Jack quite rightly points out that the MOI varies significantly between regions.  Especially for single family houses in the core, the MOI is still within the range of a balanced market.

Victoria City - 7.2
Oak Bay - 6.0

Esquimalt - 7.2

View Royal - 9.0

Saanich East - 5.9

Saanich West - 5.7

The VREB has placed the blame for the slowdown firmly in the lap of the feds, which is certainly an improvement over blaming the weather.  If true, we should see sales recover around Jan to April as the market adjusts.

Both the VREB and Just Jack show us how even hard facts aren't quite as facty as one would expect.  Reported sales for the month don't seem to line up to actual sales from the 1st to the 31st, and the VREB shows us that the average price for 6 manufactured sales is apparently negative $122,417*.  Another reason never to pay attention to single months numbers.

*Negative result reflects a collapsed sale of $1,545,000 reported as complete in Sept 2012 - VREB