Monday, November 19, 2012

Nov 19 Monday Market Update


MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

November 2012 month to date
Net Unconditional Sales: 210 (140, 40)
New Listings: 451 (323, 116)
Active Listings:  4577 (4648, 4397)
Sales to new listings ratio: 47% (43%, 34%)

November 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 482
New Listings: 847
Active Listings: 4329
Sales to new listings ratio: 57%
Sales to active listings ratio: 11% or 9 MOI

Just over halfway through the business days of the month and we're on-track for about 400 sales, or continued sluggishness.

Meanwhile, the wailing and teeth gnashing about the new mortgage rules continues amongst those that stand to lose from them.  Some interesting tidbits from that article:
“…Simulations indicate that on average (based on 2010 real mortgage data), the additional down payment required is about $25,000, 7% of the purchase price.....  If we assume that these households can devote 10% of their pre-tax incomes to enlarging their down payments, on average it will take 3.5 years to re-qualify"
Looks like this time the hit is larger, and those people knocked to the sidelines will take quite a long time to recover.  This is all keeping in mind that this is under best case conditions of continued low interest rates and an optimistic savings rate.  

225 comments:

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info said...

Interesting post over at Whispersfromtheedge.

Perhaps just as intersting is one of the comments:


As a mortgage professional and a member of CAAMP I am embarrassed by the comment of this organization.

It seems to me that they can not recognize that the underlying fundamentals of the market today have changed.

Instead of admitting that Canadian's debt levels are dangerously high and R/E prices have been driven higher by cheap credit to the point of unaffordable, they choose to lay blame on the Fed.

A true professional in this business would advise a client not to buy and to wait for a correction in spite of loosing a commission today. (as I have done many times).

Unfortunately the R/E business is really starting to lose it's integrity.

BTW I will post this as anonymous as lord knows one can't speak out against ones organization.


dasmo said...

I have stopped reading info's posts...Is it just me, or are they a little spammy?

Introvert said...

Quite spammy.

On another note, we've reached 200 comments, so could Leo or HHV please begin a new thread? Many thanks.

Leo S said...

Looks like a legitimate cross-post from another site with current information to me...

I'll post an update but out for the night. Tomorrow sometime. Generally this site is pretty dead on the weekend anyway :)

Anton said...

I don't mind oil tanks (or untreated sewage into the strait) as much as smoke in the air from all the people heating with wood in my neighbourhood. I come back from a walk and feel I have just smoked a pack of cigarettes. Don't harm the soil or water but do whatever you want to the air we breathe.

dasmo said...

I was just checking to see if he actually read THIS blog...

Johnny-Dollar said...

The rise and fall of Langford home prices as shown through one home re-sale.

Originally constructed in 2006, this Cavalcade home resold several times.

$418,000 in January 2006, 35 days to sell
$479,000 in August 2007, 32 days to sell
$499,900 in November 2009, 11, days to sell
$432,500 in November 2012, 140 days to sell

Introvert said...

$418,000 in January 2006, 35 days to sell
$479,000 in August 2007, 32 days to sell
$499,900 in November 2009, 11, days to sell
$432,500 in November 2012, 140 days to sell


Why do people move so often? My goodness.

The only beneficial transaction was the one that the original owners made (buying at $418k and selling at $479k). But even that profit wasn't amazing when all the fees, taxes, etc., are accounted for.

Moral of the story? Buy a house you really like; live in it for a long time; try your damnedest to sell during a boom.

info said...

The Canadian Bank Bail-out of 2008-2010.

Quoting:


The CCPA’s study,“The Big Banks’ Big Secret: Estimating Government Support for Canadian Banks During the Financial Crisis”, convincingly refutes the belief that Canadian banks did not need or receive a bailout during the crisis. Directly from the report: “Canada’s banks received $114 billion in cash and loan support between September 2008 and August 2010… They were double-dipping in not only two but three separate support pro­grams, one of them American….At its peak in March 2009, support for Canadian banks reached $114 bil­lion.

Clearly, no matter how much the Big Five would like us to believe otherwise, they experienced a severe liquidity crisis in 2008-2010 hence the need to sell performing but illiquid CMHC guaranteed mortgages. To fill this liquidity gap they received emergency funding on the order of size on a per capita basis of that received by the US banks.


info said...

dasmo and Introvert

I post on this blog to provide information. My posts are fully sourced. I have never seen anything from either of you that has countered any of the information I have shared on this blog.

Name-calling and so forth just doesn't cut it.

dasmo said...

Just checking ;-)

dasmo said...

And my apologies.

Introvert said...

Info, your pseudonym is apt.

And your copy and paste skills are second to none.

dasmo said...

I came here for the real stats, frank opinions and the rent vs buy spread sheet. I stayed for the stimulating debate and JJs broadcasts. I just pass over the cntrl C cntrl V...

Marko said...

I just pass over the cntrl C cntrl V...

+1, doesn't contribute much to the blog.

Phil said...

TC's inflation numbers were noteworhty. Victoria inflation rate was a whopping 0.3% over the past year. Canada 1.2% y-o-y. HYPERinflation!! Run for your lives!
I did note that property taxes rose 2.8%.

I get a kick out of all the inflation screamers last few years, as it's keeps falling and falling.

dasmo said...

Depends on what you index...obviously property tax is not on the list.

dasmo said...

I would love it if someone could find what is on our index. "Food" isn't very specific. For instance, to exercise my cntrl c/v skills: "a Statistics Canada review of prices for selected food products shows milk prices have increased 863 per cent from 1961 to 2011. Chicken prices have climbed 733 per cent. And potatoes have gone up 1,265 per cent." These items are probably off the "food" index....

Unknown said...

rent vs buy is a tough choice :)

http://victoria.en.craigslist.ca/apa/3394596738.html

Unknown said...

oops wrong link posted!!

http://victoria.en.craigslist.ca/apa/3377793235.html

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omc said...

That rent vs buy would have me strongly choosing buy. Guess you didn't notice it was only available till the 15 th of January. Who would bother even trying to rent thier place out for a few weeks in the winter. Not exactly a winter destination here.

Marko said...

Monday, November 26, 2012 8:15am

MTD November
2012 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 289 482
New Listings: 594 847
Active Listings: 4,525 4,329

Please Note
Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

dasmo said...

They are trying to rent it because they will bulldoze it come spring....

Anonymous said...

i posted the wrong link the first time

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