Saturday, April 20, 2013

Gangbusters

It's not only the comments that are piling up, it's also the sales these days.  I've got 27 SFH sales under $550k and 35 from $550 to $900k, which is the most I've seen since I've started tracking 2-3 years ago.

No sooner do I write an update about the low sales do they turn around.  Will be interesting to see the final numbers for April.  Last year around the third monday we had 417 sales.

Edit: Sales would have to be accelerate significantly and be sustained for several months to catch up to last year though.   So far we're 268 sales behind 2012.


37 comments:

Renter said...

Interesting that you're seeing a lot of sales.

In houses (East and West Saanich, Central Saanich) up to $550,000, I see 19 pending out of 171.

In acreages (East, West, Central, and North Saanich, plus East and West Highlands) up to a million, I see 8 pending out of 78.

Many of them have been pending since February, so they're not all recent.

I guess it really is all about location, location, location, since I'm missing Oak Bay, all the parts of Victoria, and Esquimalt in my matrix - and I assume there hasn't been a sudden surge in View Royal, Langford, and Sooke.

DavidL said...

Uptick in sales = bear trap?

DavidL said...

My impression is that the lower end of the market is still slumping. There have been many midlevel quality homes coming on the market as pensioners, etc. are downsizing. These are being purchased by Victorians "moving up" the real estate ladder, and by people moving to Victoria from more expensive markets (Vancouver, Toronto, etc.). These sales are driving up the median and averages. Property valuations continue to decrease.

koozdra said...

People are using their recency bias to judge the current decrease in prices as really good deals.

Leo S said...

Declines do tend to be bumpy

Mayfair Man said...

Interesting month in sales. Instead of raising interest rates, what are the odds of the government raising the CMHC minimum down payment to 7.5% or 10%? If debt levels don't start going down.

koozdra said...

"Reduced! Out Of Town Seller wants it Sold!"

These poor people continue to drop the price to sell this house. Where is the bottom of the market for these houses?

Listed: 362
Assessed: 420

It's right on the money for 85% of assessed. Will it sell now?

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12161979&PidKey=1703965305

a simple man said...

I remember when those houses in Langford were first built - they actually seemed like an ok deal. And then they built that massive condo in their backyard. Ouch. Talk about a loss in value.

Marko said...

Interesting month in sales. Instead of raising interest rates, what are the odds of the government raising the CMHC minimum down payment to 7.5% or 10%? If debt levels don't start going down.

Minimum really needs to be 10% down to encourage some discipline.

koozdra said...

Listed: 499
Assessed: 611

82% of assessed.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=13076999&PidKey=436027377

Ernie Fallows said...

Wow you mean assessments done last year don't reflect current market value? Who knew?

koozdra said...

"Wow you mean assessments done last year don't reflect current market value? Who knew?"

Ernie, what are you? Looking to buy? Looking to sell?

Leo S said...

Instead of raising interest rates, what are the odds of the government raising the CMHC minimum down payment to 7.5% or 10%?

Well, they have done it before (raise to 10% from 5%). However at this point I think it would be untenable. It would essentially remove first time buyers from the market for a year or two and crash prices. It's too late for moves like this, and I don't think there is any political appetite for changes that drastic.

CS said...

Are rising sales the result of more realistic pricing? if so, HHV's recommendation to make offers in the vicinity of 20% off the peak price makes sense.

In which connection, 3480 Upper Terrace just went for 85% of assessment.

koozdra said...

"Wow you mean assessments done last year don't reflect current market value? Who knew?"

Also, Ernie, you should contact some local realtors and let them know that saying "priced below assessed value" is a useless metric. They keep doing it for some reason.

Bitterbear said...

3480 Upper Terrace...what was assessment?

Re Bourne property. Just out there this am looking at a place in the area and the noise from the highway is really loud.

Anton said...

"Re Bourne property. Just out there this am looking at a place in the area and the noise from the highway is really loud."

On the Saanich Peninsula sometimes view properties have a drawback, namely an unobstructed path for noise from the Pat Bay Highway. From this property you could possibly harness the wind from passing semis.

dasmo said...

RE: 643 Treanor Ave. Yep that's that lovely Langford urban planning that CS likes to espouse...Brutal devaluation For the houses that the apartment block stares down on. This can work with the right planning and layout. That isn't it. This reminds me of the little subdivision island in the middle of millstream... I guess they can walk to get a coffee. They probably drive anyway since it's safer than walking through all those parking lots....

patriotz said...

Also, Ernie, you should contact some local realtors and let them know that saying "priced below assessed value" is a useless metric. They keep doing it for some reason.

The reason is that a lot of people think assessed value means current market value, not a guess of last July 1st's market value. Thus giving the impression that the property is a "deal" at the asking price.

Al + TOH said...

"3480 Upper Terrace just went for 85% of assessment"

Must have been brought in by the busy "Young Life House Tour" activities last weekend. One of ten houses in the tour was at 3535 Upper Terrace, nice renovated one on the other (quieter) side of the street, with great ocean view.

CS said...

3480 Upper Terrace...what was assessment?
Assessed 1,354,000, sold 1.150,000.

lovely Langford urban planning that CS likes to espouse

Not sure what you're referring to. I didn't know Langford had a plan?

But they apparently have no desire to prohibit construction of the tallest condo building on the Island, which should provide business for some nearby coffee shops, barbers' shops, etc.

In Oak Bay, on the other hand, more people or any kind of business development beyond the odd coffee shop or care home seems to be prohibited.

What we need is an Oak Bay industrial park and some rezoning along the avenue to accommodate several thousand new residents a year.

Without such an approach, Saanich and the West shore will increasingly become the focus of economic development, while the core, excluding Saanich, will become a declining backwater.

Ernie Fallows said...

The reason is that a lot of people think assessed value means current market value, not a guess of last July 1st's market value. Thus giving the impression that the property is a "deal" at the asking price.


This.

dasmo said...

That's exactly why it will cost you 600k for a 50's bungalow in Oak Bay, because they won't do that.

dasmo said...

If this is the model of economic development, I'll take backwater....

Jack and Cate said...

koozdra said...

Listed: 499
Assessed: 611

82% of assessed.
___________________________

Could it be "Boomer trigger time"...?

CS said...

But the image of Langford that you have linked to is, aesthetically, far superior to this.

You forget the ugliness close to home because you are familiar with the more appealing vistas to be found on streets of single-family homes, and in parks and waterfront areas.

But when you think of the West shore, which is so much less familiar, you think mainly the ugly strip between the iron bridge and RRU, and by that you judge the entire community, which is, in fact, leafier and altogether more salubrious than much of the core.

Victoria's great mistake was to end the construction of high-rises in James Bay. Had construction continued, the core would now have tens of thousands of additional residents, and fewer poverty stricken government clerks and stenographers would have been forced to find shelter in a decaying shack in the wilds of the western communities, clogging the roads by their daily commute, thus forcing the GVA to contemplate ruinously expensive transit solutions for which a need might have been avoided.

koozdra said...

How much of Victoria's work force lives outside of the core? A serious housing decline in the boonies will affect the people you depend on to run the local economy.

dasmo said...

I grew up in Langford and my parents lived there until they passed away. I know Langford very well. Mr Mikes was my favourite restaurant as a kid. One of my favourite memories is driving an abandoned VW bug along the railway tracks behind Willway elementary with a bunch of older kids. I used to love mountain biking there until they built Bear Mountain on those lovely trails... The West Shore is the epitome of "Paved paradise put up a parking lot". That stretch of Douglas is an eyesore and definitely not the best welcome mat to the city. The difference is it's only ugly because it's old weathered and utilitarian. It's an area that is full of hope still. The monstrosity in my link is a freshly minted Frankenstein of urban "planning"....

dasmo said...

Victoria's biggest mistake was high-rises in James bay. That's why they stopped it. Not only is it a major traffic choke getting out of JB it destroys the sight lines behind the parliament buildings. That area along Douglas you highlighted in your link is where the high-rises should go. I suspect they will as they have already begun with the Hudson. IMO that stretch, all the way to Up Town, should have the height lifted to allow it to happen. There is no heritage there to preserve and no freshly minted homes with yards to destroy. It also won't add to the crawl....

koozdra said...

The 70% won't be happy about this.

"In the meantime, one can argue that slightly higher mortgage rates aren’t a big sacrifice if it means keeping the Canadian housing market sound and stable. The question is whether the remote risks being targeted by Ottawa truly justify yet another new cost to mortgage consumers."

How an obscure budget change could raise mortgage rates


DavidL said...

Very interesting article. Thanks, Koozdra.

backinVictoria said...

Lol @ CS and his/her butthurt over the core. While I appreciate your passion for the West Shore, statements like these are just as silly as the raw raw raw pro-core comments you hate on so much.

CS said
"In Oak Bay, on the other hand, more people or any kind of business development beyond the odd coffee shop or care home seems to be prohibited.

What we need is an Oak Bay industrial park and some rezoning along the avenue to accommodate several thousand new residents a year.

Without such an approach, Saanich and the West shore will increasingly become the focus of economic development, while the core, excluding Saanich, will become a declining backwater."

Do you really think that eventually Victoria is going to take a back seat to the western communities? ...That one day there will be some mysterious reversal of the colwood crawl and suddenly we will all be driving out there for the good jobs? Keep dreaming.

Marko said...

Monday, April 22, 2013 8:00am

MTD April
2013 2012
Net Unconditional Sales: 410 586
New Listings: 983 1,470
Active Listings: 4,488 4,638

Please Note
Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

Marko said...

SFH Average MTD = 644k
SFH Median MTD = 544k

Looks like we will clear 600 sales for the month.

koozdra said...

Marko, interesting news about Zoocasa. Their site is quite a bit better than MLS.

a simple man said...

ahh - the classic bull trap has arrived! Meaning the big drop should soon follow.

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