My guesses are:
1. VREB sales of 6200 (up slightly from 2013).
2. Greater Victoria 6 month SFH average in Dec 2014: $580,000 (currently $593,000)
3. BoC overnight rate in Dec 2014: 1%
4. Teranet June 2014: 128 (currently 133)
5. Teranet Dec 2014: 124
As for macro events, the larger economy will be sluggish and boring, with Canada not making any headway on unemployment in 2014. We will be teetering on the edge of deflation, and if the Bank of Canada is going anywhere it is more likely to be to cut rates than to raise them. The US will slowly dial back stimulus but in baby steps. Fixed mortgage rates within a narrow range of current values.
We are off the recent peak of months of inventory as the last mortgage changes worked their way through the market, but as the rest of the country goes gangbusters, I suspect there will be more tweaking of the CMHC this year. Something less headline grabbing than a reduction in the amortizations, perhaps a tweak to the maximum TDS ratios.
Edit: And the monthly numbers from Marko
|Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4|
|Sales to New Listings|
|Months of Inventory|
The linear sales projection is meaningless in a month like January where sales increase strongly from the first weeks. We'll be well over 300.