"I'll bet rates stay at 1% for another year." - me two weeks ago.
Well I'm not getting any more accurate, but at least I'm wrong more quickly.
Time to lay it out for 2015. We're in the middle of some pretty momentous changes with oil (and oil related investments) dropping through the floor. Now the Bank of Canada has surprised everyone with a rate cut. Will the rate cut stimulate the local housing market with lower mortgage rates? Or is it a sign of a slower economy that will drag on the market?
How are those numbers doing anyway?
Current prices and HPI. Median down a bit in recent months.
Months of inventory
Annual rolling averages. Months of inventory still going down at a good clip. Prince increases flattening out lately.
Sales to new listings. Still trending positive.
Relative to peak prices.
Affordability bigger picture stuff. Income gains and interest rates drops causing affordability to steadily increase.
The 5 year lending rate recently cracked an all time low at 3.98%. Looks like the journey down isn't quite done yet.
This year I'm guess we will see the Bank of Canada battle outright deflation. If oil stays low for a while longer things won't look so pretty, and it might cost the conservatives the government in the fall.
In Victoria, I'm guessing a small improvement over last year's numbers but more or less more of the same, with the month over month increases petering out by springtime. Prices will remain the same pulled down a bit by more first timers entering the market.
Total sales: 7200
2015 Average SFH price: $610,000
BoC Interest rate: 0.75%
Teranet June 2015: 138
Teranet Dec 2015: 140