Thursday, February 22, 2007

Thursday play with numbers

This is by no means truly scientific. Think of it more as a snap shot into a first-time home buyer's look at an outrageously priced market. Or, you can feel free to think of it as a political poll in the middle of a majority government's term: hardly proof of anything at all. Now that the disclaimer is out of the way:

I analysed the listings we've been watching since January 31. I don't know what I'm doing so pick my analysis apart, or ask questions for info you think is missing and pertinent.

Total houses: 48 [criteria is suited, or suite potential, under $425K in SW, SE, Vic, Langford, ESQ]
Number sold: 17
Sold above asking price: 10
Sold below asking price: 7
Average days on the market: 11

Total condos: 67 [criteria is 2 beds, at least 1 bath, under $250K in SW, SE, Vic, Langford, ESQ]
Number sold: 19
Sold above asking price: 7
Sold below asking price: 12
Average days on the market: 23

[I should clarify that I counted sold at asking price as above... I figure if someone is agreeable to paying full asking price then they haven't made a deal worth calling anything other than duped]

What I am taking away from this analysis: condo market doesn't seem to be as hot as the pros are saying, certainly not in the least-expensive category anyway.

Houses: how can anyone afford to buy one? I read in the TC today that in order to get in at the average price of 520K a family has to have an average income of $135K. Who's making this kind of money these days in this town? I'm guessing not many. I'm hoping that this is the last of the people who bought $100K condos doubling their money and stretching into the housing market.

I'm still at a loss to either explain or understand what is going on. I'm guessing we can call this bear-caught-in-the-bull-syndrome.

Your thoughts?

4 comments:

Osiris_Vic said...

My only concern with the prices shown is we never know what concessions were made.
"Replace the roof and we''ll give full price"
"Include stainless appliance and granite countertops"
or as was happening in the states
"lets call it sold for asking and you give me 15k cash to do the renos I want"

That said I think these numbers are pretty good but it would be interesting to see if people are offering hidden incentives to move their listing.

HHV said...

The info I have can't possibly answer those questions; but you raise interesting points... I'll start asking the realtor about stuff like this.

Village said...

I wonder who is buying, trying to decipher Statscan page for the 2001 census. It looks like the average full time worker made $38k, so a household would theoretically be making $76k. After taxes etc, probably puts them clear at $4k/mo. All very rough math.

My bank was willing to lend 5x my earnings, assuming others are. You end up at around a $400k to spend. If you have no car payment, no unexpected expenses and live house poor. You could stretch and make it work. Of course, get fired/laid off, need to repair the roof and you start getting quickly buried.

I can't think that way. I have some perverse desire to make sure I can pay rent, heat & eat if we are both fired and end up working minimum wage jobs at 7-11.

Celia said...

These articles are fantastic; the information you show us is interesting for everybody and is really good written. It’s just great!! Do you want to know something more? Read it...:Great investment opportunity at best western jaco beach, best western jaco beach resort ,beach front hotel jaco puntarenas. Visit us for more info at: http://www.jaco-bay.com/