Monday market update: back to the stats

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Month-to-date June 2011 (last week's numbers in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 511  (368)
New Listings: 1209 (912)
Active Listings: 4,845 (4,803)
Sales to new listings ratio: 42% (40%)

June 2010 totals 
Net Unconditional Sales: 625
New Listings: 1,503
Active Listings: 4,730
Sales to new listings ratio: 41.5%
Sales to active listings ratio: 13% or 7.5 MOI


It's unlikely June 2011 sales volume numbers will match June 2010. That said, it looks like the early volume bleeding of 2011 has diminished, although that's not to say the days of low sales and high volumes are over, because they're not. There's no price pressure up right now, and the market is proving very resilient against the substantial downward pressure that exists right now. Status quo remains the norm in Victoria. Patience may well be tested for the remainder of 2011 if you're itching to buy this fall and believe desire prices will be attractively lower in a few short months.

The HST

I apologize for getting political on you. If you don't want to read or discuss this, simply skip down to the previous post.

BC faces a critical decision. It's important you're in the know before casting your vote in the upcoming mail-in referendum on the HST. Here's some links:

http://www.hstinbc.ca/

http://fighthst.com/

And the two most important things you can watch when it comes to this critical economic decision for BC:





We've been discussing prudent economic choice here at HHV since day 1. That's why I'm advocating that you choose to keep the HST. It's the right economic choice at this time. Please take some time to watch the videos above, unfortunately it's close to 30 minutes in total, but I remind you that financial matters are rarely quick decisions...

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Month-to-date June 2011 (last week's numbers in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 368 (225)
New Listings: 912 (590)
Active Listings: 4,803 (4,742)
Sales to new listings ratio: 40% (38%)

June 2010 totals 
Net Unconditional Sales: 625
New Listings: 1,503
Active Listings: 4,730
Sales to new listings ratio: 41.5%
Sales to active listings ratio: 13% or 7.5 MOI 

Sales activity rose slightly from the previous week. This isn't out of the ordinary as mid-month sales volume has been busier than early month sales activity all year. This is the month for sales activity in the VREB area, sales volume typically declines as spring turns into summer then fall. Here's what it looked like last year:

Listings have likely peaked as well. Given the relatively crummy weather we've had, we may even see a listings pick-up over the coming weeks prior to the annual reduction of 1200-1500 listings we see every year as the spring/summer market ends.

Average reported prices are likely going to post gains month-over-month. This isn't because market values are rising; this is purely a case of more Honda's selling than Kia's.  

Household debt overwhelms

Many people think the US housing bust was triggered by NINJA loans and sub-prime lending. While those products definitely contributed to the hyper-inflation of US household debt from 2002-2006, they were hardly the trigger to the housing collapse. Once the ball started rolling downhill though, sub-prime so-called asset-backed securities had an underlying issue: zero equity.

Looks like Canada has the makings of it's own homegrown household debt issue. Apparently, we're in "dire straights".



From the article:

• TD Economics warned that "following five years of excessive debt accumulation, Canadian households are finally tapped out."
• Fifty-seven per cent of indebted respondents said daily living expenses are the main cause for their increasing debt; 
• The debt-to-income ratio in households reached a record high of 146.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2011, compared to 144 per cent in late 2009.
• More Canadians are carrying debt into retirement, with one-third of retired households carrying an average debt of $60,000 and 17 per cent carrying $100,000 or more. 

In case you are wondering what happens when a nation becomes indebted, suffers a financial crisis and then tries to grow itself out of the recession using more debt, we can learn from the US, which, as they say, is, well, F&%$!

We did it here too. CMHC = SUB-PRIME. Falling house prices will quickly lead to zero-equity for those who used the low-down, extended amortization schemes pushed hard by mortgage lenders, even today.

Monday market update

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Month-to-date June 2011 (last week's numbers in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 225 (93)
New Listings: 590 (263)
Active Listings: 4,742 (4,651)
Sales to new listings ratio: 38% (35%)

June 2010 totals
Net Unconditional Sales: 625
New Listings: 1,503
Active Listings: 4,730
Sales to new listings ratio: 41.5%
Sales to active listings ratio: 13% or 7.5 MOI 

Sales volume remains low, though activity picked up week over week. This is of course, relative; 2011 looks to be trending towards the volume lows of 2008, why reported average prices haven't dropped yet is determined by product sales and is bouyed by higher volume activity above the median rather than below. The median average price is more indicative of the true state of the market values of Victoria homes, and it's declining.

Monday market update

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Month-to-date June 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 93
New Listings: 263
Active Listings: 4,651
Sales to new listings ratio: 35%

June 2010 totals
Net Unconditional Sales: 625
New Listings: 1,503
Active Listings: 4,730
Sales to new listings ratio: 41.5%
Sales to active listings ratio: 13% or 7.5 MOI

May 2011: sales flat, listings jump significantly

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Month-to-date May 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 572
New Listings: 1,524
Active Listings: 4,857
Sales to new listings ratio: 37.5%
Sales to active listings ratio: 11.7%

May 2010 totals
Net Unconditional Sales: 695
New Listings: 1,621
Active Listings: 4,521
Sales to new listings ratio: 42.8%
Sales to active listings ratio: 15% or 6.5 MOI

It's a funny market right now. All signs point to declining prices, but average prices are being forced flat, or up, by more sales volume of higher priced listings (from VREB):

The average price for single-family homes sold in Greater Victoria last month was $628,462, up from $615,533 in April. The median price, however, declined slightly to $553,000 while the six-month average also declined slightly to $620,488. There were 26 single family home sales of over $1 million in May including one on the Gulf Islands. There were three sales in Oak Bay and one sale in Saanich West of over $2 million. The overall average price for condominiums last month was $328,345, down from $353,858 in April. The average for the last six months declined to $327,757. The median price for condominiums in May declined to $294,000. The average price of all townhomes sold last month declined to $466,845 from $480,621 in April. The median price also declined to $432,332 while the six month average rose to $447,581.

I suspect the winds of change to blow stronger as the year progresses from here on in and we'll start to see a slight shift towards declining prices as June rolls into July, August and September. By the end of the summer, the total active listings will likely start a steady decline until next spring, perhaps slowing the negative price momentum that may build in the next quarter.

As an aside, it seems odd to me that a city with over 4800 homes for sale has so few quality listings. There really are a lot of crappy product offerings these days. Sign of the times? Or do people just not give up on good homes?