Monday, July 11, 2011

Monday Market Update

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

June 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 140
New Listings: 407
Active Listings: 4,756
Sales to new listings ratio: 34%

June 2010 totals 
Net Unconditional Sales: 527
New Listings: 1119
Active Listings: 4,477
Sales to new listings ratio: 47%

Sales to active listings ratio: 12% or 8.5 MOI

The numbers above include the first 10 days of the month, so our regular weekly round-up of sales volume data is a bit off. Nevertheless, so far in July we're averaging 14 unit sales per day. If we compare that to roughly the same time frame in June 2011 (18.5 sales per day over the first 12 days) we can see sales volumes have dropped almost 25%. It's early, but I'd call that significant. If we maintain this pace, we'll see around 420 sales for the month total. Sales volumes drop into the summer annually, but by 25%? That's sharp. 

Listings volumes have dropped a little too. In the first 12 days of June 2011, we saw almost 50 new units hit the MLS each day. Right now we're averaging almost 41. This is fairly typical for this time of year. 

August and September were very bad sales months in 2010. 2011 is shaping up to be a bad year for the market if we isolate unit sales volumes as our indicator. 2011, after 6 months, is already 25% below 2010 numbers from the same months. Listings are higher as well, albeit only by around 5% or so. Prices should be falling right now, and very likely are, although the convenient law of averages keeps our reported average house prices at near-record levels.  

13 comments:

a simple man said...

So, at 420 sales for the month that would put the MOI at 11.3. High.

Moved yet, HHV?

HouseHuntVictoria said...

Yes, we're safe, sound and happily installed in our new city & home.

a simple man said...

Good for you, HHV. I wish you nothing but the best there.

Alexandrahere said...

Good Monday Morning: Here are my stats for the week of July 4 - July 11.

SFH: Min 2 beds & 2 baths, priced between $375K & 775K in the core municipalities of Victoria, Oak Bay, Esquimalt, Saanich East & Saanich West.

NEW: 47
SOLD: 14
P/C: 43
OM: 20

Avg selling price: $564K
Med selling price: $$548K

36% of the houses sold went for below assessment & 50% of them had reported 2ndary suites. Out of the past 52 weeks, last week had the 10th lowest in sales volume under the above criteria.

Condo's and townhouses: Min 2 beds and 2 baths, priced between $250K & 585K in most areas of Victoria (not downtown)& Saanich East, all areas of Oak Bay and Esquimalt and Gorge, Tillicum & Interurban areas of Saanich West.

NEW: 21
SOLD: 12 condos & 6 townhomes
PC: 30
OM: 5

Avg selling price condo's: 316K
Med selling price condo's: 292K

Avg selling price t/h's: 381K
Med selling price t/h's: 397K

3 of the condo's went for below assessment & 3 out of the five townhouses went for below assessment.

HouseHuntVictoria said...

@a simple man,

Thanks, your goodwill is appreciated. I still find myself fascinated by Victoria's market... even though I could care less about market conditions in our new location.

MC said...

"Reduced price!" posted on Moss and Fairfieldish house. Seems to be more and more common to see these signs.

Animal Spirit said...

Nah, nobody would ever overstate sales or prices in Canada, would they?

NAR and Illinois Realtors doo doo

a simple man said...

@ HHV - how could you not be fascinated with a market like Victoria's? Such high prices with such truly little economy here.

As I watch about the 20th grown man in the last 12 hours filter through my recycling containers for anything worth a nickle and my neighbour stroll past with one of his $5 lattes that he gets every morning.

Feast and famine in Oak Bay.

Just Jack said...

Ditto

Fiduciary said...

Nice post at The Economic Analyst (that and this one are the only two blogs I read these days) that also covers the Victoria market.

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/house-price-and-income-ratios-canadian-cities-part-1

Fiduciary said...

A great quote from that too:

"Victoria is also amazingly overvalued. It should be no shock that its real estate market is currently the weakest of all the big cities. I don't see a rebound in the foreseeable future."

DavidL said...

Anyone have a prediction regarding the pending interest rate announcement by the BOC on July 19th?

A few weeks ago, an adjustment looked very unlikely ... but with recent market volatility and national debt woes (Europe, US, China, etc.) I'm wondering if a rate change may now be more likely as Carney attempts to stave off inflation.

Alexandrahere said...

a simple man: Yes, I would feel extremely guilty if I actually took back a pop or liquor bottle etc for a refund. I find myself anxious to get the empties out so that unfortunate soul can pickup 60 cents or so. The middle class is indeed shrinking.

On another note; some recent sales:

1650 Tampico sold: $525K; assessed at $560K

753 Claremont sold: $737K assessed at $845K

2493 Sinclair sold $708K assessed at $902K

1825 Dunnett sold: $575K assessed at $575K