Monday, July 18, 2011

Monday market update

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

July 2011 (last week's numbers)
Net Unconditional Sales: 270 (140)
New Listings: 763 (407)
Active Listings: 4,856 (4,756)
Sales to new listings ratio: (35%) 34%

July 2010 totals 
Net Unconditional Sales: 527
New Listings: 1119
Active Listings: 4,477
Sales to new listings ratio: 47%

Sales to active listings ratio: 12% or 8.5 MOI


Sales volume is up ever so slightly from about 14 units per day to 15 units per day. If the trend holds, we will see around 465 sales in July. Any way you look at it, spin it, or close your eyes and ignore it, that's a dreadful number. It's in the range of the two worst sales volume surprise months in recent memory: August and September 2010. 

100 comments:

jesse said...

Ouchie...

Unknown said...

I would like to keep track of the Shawnigan Lake/Mill Bay area. Any suggestions on where I can find data on housing trends in that area? Thanks!

Alexandrahere said...

Morning all, here are my stats for July 11-17.

SFH: Min 2 beds & 2 baths, priced between 375K & 775K in the core municipalities of Victoria, Oak Bay, Esquimalt, Saanich East & Saanich West.

NEW: 43
SOLD: 16
P/C: 44
OM: 13

Avg selling price: $594K
Med selling price: $578K

Out of the 16 homes that sold, 7 or 44% went for below BC assessment. 35% had advertised 2ndary suites. Under the above criteria, the avg selling price this week was the 5th highest in the past year. This would be because the previous first time
home buyers are no longer (able) to sell their lower end homes and buy up thus the quality of homes that are now selling for $594K were selling for much more one year ago.

Condo's and townhomes: Priced between $250K & $585K with a minimum of 2 beds & 2 baths, in most parts of Victoria (not downtown)and Saanich East, all areas of Esquimalt & Oak Bay and Gorge, Tillicum & Interurban areas of Saanich West.

New: 26
Sold: 5 condo's & 3 townhouses
P/C: 12
OM: 3

Avg selling price condo: $341K
Med selling price condo: $319K

Avg selling price t/h: $415K
Med selling price t/h: $405K

Four out of the 5 condo's & all three of the townhomes sold for below BC assessment.

Just Jack said...

For Shawnigan and Mill Bay there are 147 homes for sale and 8 sold in the last 30 days. Averages and medians are inaccurate at this low sale volume. Two re-sales in the last month indicate that current prices are some 10 percent higher than five years ago (June of 2006).

You can't turn over 18 months of inventory around. Prices have to continue to decline until the inventory back log is substantially reduced.

Good time to start looking at lakefront properties, like a little "love shack" on the lake just sold for $417,000. Which had at one time been listed at $669,000.

DavidL said...

In the previous topic, Animal Spirit wrote: My wife has a need (i.e. she grew up on a small farm) to get her hands dirty, to plant a garden, to do outdoor work. We have a need to have our daughter run around free. I have a need to call a place home. Since we've been renting for a long time, it would be good to have this.

With the right landlord and location, you can grow your own garden, paint your own walls and have space for your children to run around. Two family members rent in the Highlands on acreage, have their own productive gardens, etc. with space for the kids to run around. Previously, one of them rented an older house in Gordon Head, and was able to grow veggies, etc. and let their daughter run around on a 1/4 acre lot. At various Saanich locations that I rented in the 80's and 90's - I could usually convince the landlord to let me dig around in the garden, plant flowers (and shrubs) and grow some veggies. Some landlords balk at the idea of a tenant modifying anything in the garden. Others are happy when part of the lawn can be turned into productive garden. It is just a matter of finding the right landlord. Interestingly, I found that landlords of European decent are much more happy with tenants gardening rather than those who are Canadian-born.

Frannie said...

Animal Spirit, re, last post, don't throw in the towel! If you really think prices are going to come down, and don't want to find yourself lamenting that you paid significantly more than you would have if you'd waited, keep looking at rentals. I know from experience how frustrating it can be, but I also know how awful it is to buy in an inflated market. Believe me, being patient and finding the right rental property pays off in so many ways.

As my husband says to me, the housing market is just so much bigger than we are, and so out of our control. Yes, it's true, many of us feel ripped off because our life plans are put on hold while we wait, and wait, for this market to correct, but it is quite possible to find rentals that meet the needs you speak of. I'm in one right now. We have acreage, are near major transportation arteries, have a garden, can paint it however we like, and it feels like a HOME. We have a good relationship with our landlord, who is even allowing us to renovate a room according to our needs. No question it takes patience in Victoria to find the right place, but let's face it, most of our housing stock here is not in great shape. Whether buying or renting, we make sacrifices to live here. If it isn't the right time for you to buy (and I honestly don't see how this can be a good time for anybody, bar multimillionaires, to buy), don't give in. You can find a good rental.

Marko said...

144-1335 Bear Mountain Pkwy sold in February of 2010 for $262,000...and it sold yesterday for $220,000.

That one hurts.

Animal Spirit said...

16% haircut in 1.5 years... how much did it sell from assessed?

Renter said...

I'm renting right now by Brentwood Bay on a 2 acre lot with a great deal of the back yard turned into veggie garden. My next door neighbour is also renting with a huge veggie garden.

We're comparing strategies to keep the deer away. He decided to spend money on a fence; I'm going for other (cheaper) deterrents - scents they don't like such as blood meal, mothballs, garlic, etc.

happy renter said...

Darn:

Bank of Canada keeps key interest rate at 1%

happy renter said...

But...

Mark Carney signals rate hike coming

Marko said...

Animal....Assessment: $229,100

Just Janice said...

...or not darn - keeping the rate that low signals significant economic weakness/risk....also bad for housing....

Renter said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
happy renter said...

Good point, Just Janice.

DavidL said...

Although published 6 days ago, it makes an interesting read ...

A case for Mark Carney to start raising rates immediately

Nancy said...

How come everytime I speak with a small business owner they say business is bad.

So the economy is just humming along?

DavidL said...

@Nancy wrote: How come everytime I speak with a small business owner they say business is bad.

[1] Over the past few years, the high CDN $ has meant declining US tourists for Victoria.
[2] The unemployment rate is stuck at 6.2%.
[3] Most importantly, people have less disposable income.

With the high rate of home ownership (AKA massive debt to the bank) and corresponding significant mortgage payments - people have less money for hair cuts, meals out, entertainment and for hiring trades people and consultants. This trend has been slowly building over the past five years. Also, as debt has grown incomes have stagnated. In May 2011, the real inflation rate was 3.7% ... In fact, some studies suggest that when food and energy are included, the inflation rate is closer to 7%. Has your income kept pace with inflation over the past ten years?

No wonder small businesses are hurting ...

patriotz said...

The next stage in this trend is of course when interest rates inevitably go up.

At least the Americans have a degree of insulation as a large part of their mortgages are fixed rate over the entire amortization.

Phil said...

DavidL,

I think the 3.7% rate for May includes food and energy. Without the rate was 1.8% and rising quickly. Gasoline (oil) typically peaks in May thus inflation too. Carney will still raise the overnight this Fall as their statement clearly indicated. Confirmed by the flight of the loonie lasst couple days.

EatMe said...

A bit off the topic of real estate…

I’m not surprised small businesses on the Island are having a hard time. It’s obvious when you walk into some of these places that their struggling – minimal stock and dejected staff. In no other city have I come across such defeatist attitudes in retail and such an sense of entitlement to business. i.e. My perception of Island business is they want the customer’s money but don’t want to have to deal with the customers. Everyone here seems to want the easy money – minimal for the customer with maximum for the merchant. With this performance I think its great their struggling! Look forward to the Wal Marts etc. of the world crushing them because that’s what they deserve.

EatMe said...

Further to my last comment - I don't think these small business owners are representative of the economy. More likely they are just suffering the transfer of business to the Wal Marts etc.

DavidL said...

@EatMe

You and I must be visiting different small retailers...

Your WalMart "argument" doesn't affect other small businesses (restaurants, entertainment, trades people and consultants) who have experienced declines in sales.

DavidL said...

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated monthly by Statistics Canada:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/cpi-ipc/cpi-ipc-eng.htm

The Bank of Canada publishes historical CPI values at:
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/price-indexes/cpi/

Variable mortgage interest rates remain below the inflation rate, as are most typical increases to salaries/wages. Increase interest rates and throw in a little real estate deflation - and it makes for very interesting financial times.

Victoria said...

Nancy:

I agree with you, small business on the Island is struggling. I am a small businessperson (B2B) and I can easily back up your statement with daily evidence. It's tough and I believe it is about to get a lot tougher. Real Estate is going to be a very soft market for a good while. The spin off from that alone makes the current and future business environment tougher and tougher.

Marko said...

Lack of high-end sales is keep the SFH average depressed this month...sitting at 586k.

EagerBuyer(Not) said...

Marko ^^^

If the average price drops for July and sales tank the TC and local media will start talking about a downturn.

Snowball might start rolling down the hill in a few weeks

Just Jack said...

This sale looks a bit odd, even I find it hard to believe but...

A townhouse on Salt Spring Island that was bought in August of 2006 for $475,000. The property is assessed at $471,000 and has been listed for 165 days starting at $535,000 has just sold this week for...

$297,500.

Why buy a townhouse on Salt Spring Island when there are 220 houses for sale with only 9 selling last month?

Could we actually be looking at this kind of a market correction - actually I'd call that sale a crash.

Too far out you say, Victoria is different, never happen here. You could be right in the detached home market, but:

a house in the Hillside area on Oakland Avenue that sold in September 2008 for $391,000 and has just re-sold for $383,000.

So at $383,000 for a house in Victoria - will people stop looking to buy townhouse here too.

Marko said...

"Marko ^^^

If the average price drops for July and sales tank the TC and local media will start talking about a downturn.

Snowball might start rolling down the hill in a few weeks"

Similar event happened last summer where price average went from 649k in June to 586k in August and it was the worst August in 20 years, and so was September....and nothing really happened.

Interest rates are low so most sellers can afford to simply hold on, rent or etc.

I don't think we'll see a "snowball" because the TC writes an article - who reads it anyway?

I've been showing a lot of homes lately and there is soooo much garbage out there. I think inventory is a little misleading....

Marko said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFKZruBoMkg

Craig said...

"I've been showing a lot of homes lately and there is soooo much garbage out there. "

Yep.

Rhino said...

Just watched the Shamus video...I wish I could have the last 2 minutes of my life back.

DavidL said...

@Marco

I'm unsure if you linked to Shamus Baier's video because you are supportive or critical of his analysis.

However, his argument that: "with inventory in Victoria reaching over 5000 listings, why haven't we seen a sharp decline in prices? In part, thanks to the high rents that Victorians have always been able to charge with the large student population and relatively low vacancy rate." ... is completely invalid.

First - the vacancy rate. A quick check of the Major Canadian City Monthly Rental Rate and Vacancy Summary April 2011 shows that Victoria had a vacancy rate of 2.7% in April 2011. (This is about double the historical norm.) Other university towns such as Kingston, Guelph, Waterloo, Ottawa, Winnipeg and Regina all have much lower vacancy rates and lower real estate prices - thus disproving two out of the three premises.

As for Victoria having higher rents than average - according the the CHMC in June 2011: "the highest average monthly rents for two-bedroom apartments in new and existing structures in Canada’s major centres were in Vancouver ($1,181), Toronto ($1,124); Ottawa – Gatineau, Ontario part ($1,056), Calgary ($1,040), Edmonton ($1,029) and Victoria ($1,024)". These are also the most expensive real estate markets in the country - so it makes sense that higher rents are charged to cover higher mortgages.

However, suggesting that higher rental rates can somehow prevent real estate values from falling is completely illogical.

Unfortunately, Shamus is just cobbling together various ideas to support his arguments without looking at the facts.

happy renter said...

A Home is a Lousy Investment

backinVictoria said...

@Marko, that video made for a good laugh before bed - I trust that was your intent for posting the link.

I appreciate all of your input on this blog...have a good night.

Leo S said...

These are also the most expensive real estate markets in the country - so it makes sense that higher rents are charged to cover higher mortgages.

While the expensive markets will likely have above average rents due to desirability, rents have no connection in general to the size of peoples' mortgages. For example: Vancouver rents have remained on their leisurely course with no correlation to house prices.

From this page.

EatMe said...

The value of average rents in the charts reflects purpose built rental stock. Most of the rentals over the past several years have come from individual condos. The average rent therefore is very understated. Check rents between purpose built buildings and newer condos - big difference but it's not being captured anywhere.

EatMe said...

Show me a link to a newer condo at a rental rate anywhere near these numbers! 2 bed unit in Vancouver for $1200 a month? Let's go to east hastings to live! Useless numbers...

two-bedroom apartments in new and existing structures in Canada’s major centres were in Vancouver ($1,181), Toronto ($1,124); Ottawa – Gatineau, Ontario part ($1,056), Calgary ($1,040), Edmonton ($1,029) and Victoria ($1,024)"

Nancy said...

I still think one of the biggest problems in this city for rentals in NO PETS. We are looking to rent a 4 to 5 bedroom house (we still have not sold our house though) and the few houses for rent always say NO PETS. Most people that rent larger homes are families and often have animales. I speak to many people in my day to day errand running (I am a stay at home mom) and this is a huge problem. The pound is full of animals that people have had to give up.

My husband said he would sell if I could show him one suitable rental and sadly I can't.

I remember in the 70s in Winnipeg there used to be signs NO CHILDREN. Now that I can understand :-)

Leo S said...

Most of the rentals over the past several years have come from individual condos.

Source?

The average rent therefore is very understated. Check rents between purpose built buildings and newer condos - big difference but it's not being captured anywhere.

Sure, newer buildings will be more expensive, but the point is that house prices have no direct influence on rents. Rents are what they are because of supply and demand. They have nothing to do with what someone needs to get to cover their inflated mortgage.

EatMe said...

Agreed rents do not get set on "over inflated mortgages". I was only pointing out how useless the chart with house prices vs rents is. Look up the average unit value of purpose built rentals and us that in the chart. I'm sure someone here with endless time on their hands can look up the details about how many purpose built rental building have been built in the past 10 years. (It's next to nothing because it's not economical at the rents they are achieving. If you're a developer you build condos and sell them to make the big money)

Fiduciary said...

EatMe, do your comments on the lack of rentals at those prices only apply to Vancouver or Victoria as well? I'm renting a 2 bdrm 2003 condo right now for $1100/mo. It's a little on the small side (~700 sq. ft.), but it's a nice building and a great location for us.

EatMe said...

two second search...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/article1674936.ece

As everyone who’s studied the Canadian housing market knows, rental-apartment construction boomed in the 1960s and 1970s. But it slowed to a trickle after the federal government changed tax laws and incentive programs at the same time that condo ownership was given a legal framework. Developers quickly moved to building condos for quicker and easier returns.

EatMe said...

Fid - your rate is about $1.57 a square foot so you have a good deal. Downtown Vancouver is more like $2.20 - $2.40 a foot.

a simple man said...

and I pay $1.11 a sq ft for my home in Oak Bay.

EatMe - would you consider at least changing your picture if not your name and picture - I find both offensive.

a simple man said...

from cbc.ca

Resale housing markets in Canada are headed for a "significant slowing" over the next year, the Royal Bank said Thursday.

Next year, British Columbia will be the only province where prices will drop, the bank forecast.

EatMe said...

EatMe - would you consider at least changing your picture if not your name and picture - I find both offensive.

Really? You're too sensitive...

a simple man said...

I guess you may be right on that one.

Leo S said...

I was only pointing out how useless the chart with house prices vs rents is.

I don't think it's useless at all. Yes, it's a good point that the data is incomplete, but that doesn't invalidate the data there is. Condo rents will be higher than that of the older rental appartments, but I don't see any evidence that they behave any differently year over year, or that they will track the housing market. They will almost certainly track inflation fairly steadily same as the other rents.

Despite rent controls in BC, rents aren't even increasing at the maximum rate, so that's not the cause for slow increases.

Chris said...

As everyone who's studied the Canadian housing market knows, rental-apartment construction boomed in the 1960s and 1970s.

Bingo! As the 'pig moved through the global python', apartments boomed, then starter homes, and then recently mcmansions. Now, the leading edge of 9 million (in Canada alone) have started retiring. Soon they will either downsize, rent, sell some of their multiple homes, and/or begin to pass on. It's all been studied extensively. Boomers will do what every other demographic before them has done. Some Boomers may think they're different, healthier and/or special, but they're not. The next 40 years will look nothing like the last 40 years with regards to real estate.

EatMe said...

Chris - you're making a 40 year prediction? Valuable...

That same group you refer to (boomers) are also working much longer and are healthier than the generations before them so that may change things a bit too.

Just Jack said...

The boomers aren't healthier and living longer than the generation before.

Anecdotal that it may be, I have been doing my family tree and since about 1820, nearly all of my relatives were living into their 80's. But now, more born after 1950 have been dying in their 50's and early 60's.

And I think its going to get worse. A lot more teenagers and people in their twenties have sugar guts and muffin tops. Canadians are fat people living in a fat country.

While you may not be, most Canadians are over weight and its killing us sooner.

Zidane said...

test

Zidane said...

Ok, i am finally going to weigh in on the eatme issue.
Eatme, tell us all exactly how someone is being sensitive when they are offended by a moniker that is inviting them to perform fellatio (or perhaps cunnilingus) on you, and your photo is suggesting that they go do the same thing on themselves.
We've asked nicely, please change your name and/or photo. Or stop posting.

Mindset said...

Caught part of an ad on the radio while driving today saying that if you were over 10K in debt on your visa, you could qualify for 'rescue' funding to wipe out some of the balance. I didn't catch the name of the organization backing it, but the language sounded like federal funding (although that may have been a ploy to rope people into refinancing).

Anyone know anything about this? Is there federal hardship funding out there to help people out of their bad choices? I hope my tax dollars aren't going into subsidizing peoples big screen TV's and party nights.

Nancy said...

Also cancer is on the rise and it is hitting younger and younger people all the time and there has been very little in-roads in curing this disease since the 50s except for children's cancers.

Rhino said...

http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_dyn_le00_in&idim=country:CAN&dl=en&hl=en&q=canadian+life+expectancy+graph

Just Jack said...

Oh yeah, I see the life expectancy charts do show that Canadians are living longer. I suppose that's the problem with anecdotal comments. I look back in old family albums and no-one was over weight, not a chubby one to be found. Must have been the cigarettes and cheap booze.

Leo S said...

@Zidane Please change your moniker as well. As a German, I am scared that you might headbutt me unconscious.

In any case, it's vacation time. When I return in 2 weeks the market better have crashed!

Nancy said...

From what I have read they are living longer and are refusing to die.

This is another subject but that is going to be the problem in the future of health care. People wanting every cure and trick out there even if it doesn't work or only prolonges your life for a few months.

A friend of mine who is a doctor is seeing it in the hospital all the time. Baby boomer kids wanting open heart surgery for their 90 year old parents.

Chris said...

In case anyone wants some understanding why the next the 40 years will be very different regarding real estate. It has nothing to do with life expectancy, everything to do with ownership expectancy.

2 papers off the top of my head, simply Google:

Ageing and Asset Prices (Aug 2010 Bank of International Settlements) and go to Graph 3 about page 17 for the pdf.

another Foresight and Mitigation of an epic transition or something like that (2008) this time see Figure 3 several pages in. I believe that one's a university study.

If you understand those 2 graphs for starters, then you understand the changes we're about to see. Both data sets are recent. In other words, the same fat people as today and their buying and selling behavior.

Anton said...

Not everyone who gets old wants to sell their house and move into “Sunset Manor”. I for one will go kicking and screaming into a retirement home. I know of a few people who have moved out of retirement homes (independent living) because it’s too regimented and to quote one nonagenarian the place was “full of old people”. These homes are bloody expensive too. Cheaper to stay in your own place and get the neighbor kid to cut the grass, get groceries delivered and treat the house like it had no upstairs or basement.

Introvert said...

Yeah, I'm not convinced that it's a sure bet that most of today's boomers will downsize in the future. However, if they do, the Canadian housing market isn't going to fall off a cliff: Canada has the highest per capita net immigration rate in the world, and the world's population keeps increasing rapidly. In the long term, there will always be buyers.

Jason said...

I'm ok with Eat Me's handle - this is the internet after all. You can't get far in space if some mild improprietry is going to chase you away. The comments are tempered antagonism that include thought and good points. They are for the most part woefully incorrect of course, but it would be pretty boring if everyone agreed. I like your posts too, Simple Man.

Less than 20% of my parents friends and extended family (statistical anecdote?) did not change houses once the kids were gone. Most downsized in size only - they moved up or at least horizontally in value. Nicer locations, newer houses etc. Does the predicted downsizing only take into account sq footage? How does relative value play into this?

a simple man said...

I, too, enjoy EatMe's contributions. I just find that his picture and his username distract and antagonize.

But, I am sensitive as well as simple.

Just Jack said...

As for Eatme,

It could be worse.

a simple man said...

I agree, JJ. You look good in purple.

Frannie said...

It may be the internet, but this is a housing blog, not a porn site, and my 10-year-old walked up behind me a couple of nights ago while I was reading the comments, and saw the picture/moniker in question. He immediately asked me why I was looking at a site with that on it, and I had to explain that some people have no respect for other people, and enjoy displaying that lack of respect. There isn't a lot we can do about narcissistic individuals who consider themselves superior to the rest of us, but I think it is perfectly OK to tell them that they are, in fact, offensive to others. They may not care, but if enough people have the guts to speak out, perhaps the blog owner will decide that boundaries are needed. Too bad that anybody has to suggest that, one would like to think that people would be respectful in public forums, but that's it. Often, they're not.

Just Jack said...

Okay

Fiduciary said...

Just Jack, whether or not I agree with everything you say that picture is apropos and hilarious.

Here's my stance on "offensive" material: if it doesn't demean a specific minority of people and/or incite violence, it's acceptable. This applies regardless of whether children are expected to view it. As a society I feel we expect life to be too sanitized.

In this specific case, I don't even think EatMe's moniker is a sexual reference at all, just cynical.

a simple man said...

Do you think EatMe would not incite violence if he gave you the finger to your face and told you to "Eat me" in real life?

Fiduciary said...

A Simple Man - let me clarify then. My standard is when speech incites violence against others, eg. "we need to purify the gene pool" is obviously a terrible thing to say and should be disallowed. If he did that in real life that's called being a jerk, and as much as I hate jerks, I don't think they should be censored unless they are a) specifically targeting a minority (could be a majority, but saying "a group defined by a characteristic" is too wordy) or b) inciting violence against others, as per above.

I think a good test of our standards is if you're comfortable applying them to protect people you disagree with. Someone telling you to "eat me" in real life I would disagree with, but I don't think it should be censored.

I also don't concede the point that having a screen name equates to telling someone that in real life.

EatMe said...

Frannie - glad I could provide such a valuable educational lesson for your sheltered child. No need for further thanks!

Fiduciary said...

Also, obviously this is HHV's call, but I enjoy having civil discussion and "point-counterpoint" about issues like this, so long as it stays logical and civil, which it has so far. So much discussion on the internet becomes low brow quickly, and one thing I value about this board is that it stays intellectual.

That said, I don't blame him if he locked this thread and tried to get the discussion back to real estate. :)

EatMe said...

a simple man - Do you think EatMe would not incite violence if he gave you the finger to your face and told you to "Eat me" in real life?

Wow, you are an aggressive one if that would incite you to violence! I would simply dismiss the person and move on...

EatMe said...

and by the way I have always discussed real estate here objectively. The subject of screen names and pictures was not brought up by me!

a simple man said...

Crickets - that is all I hear for sales in Oak Bay. Also three houses around me have been for rent for a long, long time. Sitting vacant.

Alexandrahere said...

I agree with Fiduciary, I think Eatme thought of using this name as as an expression or answer to what some people think they should be getting for their piece of junk on say Hampshire in Oak Bay. Also, I think guys (versus women) find these kinds of expressions more acceptable when used in this context. Don't think too many 8 yr olds are reading this blog.

Fiduciary said...

I wonder - does anyone have rental stats per area, similar to the sales stats? Specifically vacancy rates, average rent costs etc. I've heard the anecdotes in the comments here about good deals renting (price per square foot), and pondering if they're evidence of trends or outliers.

I imagine this data would be much harder to gather, however.

DavidL said...

Gee ... and I thought that EatMe was just showing his sore finger after following his own advice and trying to eat part of himself. ;-)

EatMe: I think that your screen name and photo detract from the issues that you raise. In other words - people are less likely to take you seriously. I don't agree with some of the points you make, but I do think that a range of viewpoints makes for a much more interesting discussion. If we all agreed, there wouldn't be much to discuss ...

Just Jack said...

The re-sale market for downtown condos seems to be taking a beating.

A third floor condo bought in April 2006 for $266,000 has just re-sold for $273,000. A $7,000 gain over 5 years.

Back in 2006, this 2 year old condo took only 2 days to sell. This time around the suite was listed for 41 days.

But with only 19 downtown condo sales in the last month and 169 currently for sale making nearly nine months of inventory, chances are that this may have been the only offer presented.

Since April 2006, over 1,500 condominiums have sold just in the downtown area of Victoria. That's 1,500 condominiums where prices have remained nearly flat or have come down in value. That's 1,500 home owners who might be better off financially today, if they had never bought. That's 1,500 households who realize that real estate in Victoria is not like the brochure they were lead to believe it was.

Just Janice said...

I think most landlords put no pets out of convenience. I've owned a dog for nearly 6 years, I rent and finding a rental has never been a problem with the dog. I think it depends on the animal, its references, your willingness to put a pet deposit down, and of course your own personal suitability. Generally speaking properties that are privately owned are more willing to allow pets than those through property management companies.

My strategy - let the landlord meet you and like you and then drop the fact that you have a pet, but are responsible and willing to pay a pet deposit.

If I were a landlord and I had a choice between a family with a dog and a bunch of students, I know who I'd choose.

Just Jack said...

With only 29 sales for the last 30 days in Oak Bay and prices ranging from a low of $550,000 to a high of $2,140,000 can anyone make sense of this micro-market called Oak Bay?

The median price is about $790,000 with a higher average price of $892,500. Which has not changed much over the last 6 months of sales with the median at $753,500 and the average at $891,500.

If there was a typical home for Oak Bay it would be a basement entry home built in 1935 with a total finished floor area of 2,300 square feet on a lot size of 7,500 square feet. No views at that price, but every purchaser receives a humane rat trap in every welcome wagon basket.

Okay, okay, I actually do like Oak Bay. Yes I make fun of it a lot. But I also make fun of people who wear Oak Bay Marina golf shirts and have facial tattoos. But then I like wearing my RCMP T-shirt at beer gardens. Never a problem getting a table, lots of elbow room.

"hey boy, is that dope I'm smelling on you?"

Introvert said...

Apparently this blog has become so boring that EatMe is the main topic of conversation.

Just Jack said...

Real estate is more exciting when prices are going up.

Right now, real estate is like watching ice melt.

Maybe we need a new focus as we have had in the past, like tips on making an offer - what should I include or exclude - closing dates. Can the bank really get things together in 24 hours? Or are they just saying that to get my business.

How about the art of mortgage fraud? Who is the villain? And who is being taken in the scam?

Thinking of buying a foreclosure, an estate sale or a marital break up?

To vulch or not to vulch?

Should I tip my realtor?

Every agent has a hand book of answers for every question you have. But do you know the right questions to ask?

Home inspections - what good are they?

Is Just Jack really that good looking? Of course he is.

Buying a condo - what should you look for?

Re-sale market? What's that?

Just Jack said...

Or what adds value and what detracts from value?

What should I be looking for, when I walk through the home. And what are some basic questions?

How do I compare one home to another? Is a single garage worth more than a double carport. How much of a discount should I give a home on a busy street.

The home needs repairs. What repairs can I discount from the price immediately and what should I budget over the next decade.

A roof is a roof is a roof -until it leaks then its a big bill. What should I look for in a roofer. Tall muscular and blonde or short and excessively hairy?

patriotz said...

"In the long term, there will always be buyers."

No fooling. That hasn't stopped the current bust in the US (which also gets a lot of immigrants) and past busts in BC and Toronto.

What matters is how much those buyers are able and willing to pay. Which as economics and history tells us, can't exceed rental value in the long run.

happy renter said...

"That's 1,500 households who realize that real estate in Victoria is not like the brochure they were lead to believe it was."

That's exactly what happened to me (bought a downtown condo in 2007 and sold in 2010 for about $4000 more than I paid). I tell people that when they ask if I'll get back into the condo market soon, and the reality of the situation just doesn't seem to register for them. There are few people in this city who are ready to accept the real estate reality that is coming/already here.

a simple man said...

We went to the Woodburn open house today. Priced well below assessed and the agent claimed over 100 people at the open house last week. Nice home, fantastic yard - has stood out from a lot of other open houses I have seen in the past year - I could see myself living there.

But, it is obviously not selling. A lot of traffic and no sale means there is something amiss. What is wrong with it? Is it over that magic price where the market thins ($675?)? Is it too much for too far from the ocean and other amenities?

I would but it, but for $650K. Not $868K.

a simple man said...

my PCS makes it hard to search for sales in a particular week, but a quick manual scan shows no sales on Oak Bay in the past week for homes under $1M.

Alexandrahere said...

a simple man: 3322 Henderson sold for $631K and was assessed at $632K.

Alexandrahere said...

a simple man: Sorry, also a 3336 sq. ft 5 bedroom 3 bath home with suite at 2313 Cranmore sold for $740K.

a simple man said...

right you are - don't know how I missed the Henderson one.

thanks.

omc said...

That house on Cranmore is on a busy intersection.

What I am seeing is an unseasonal amount of homes in very desirable locations. There is a new one on Transit, one on Locarno and one on Houlihan place just this week. That one on Woodburn is pretty good too, but kind of isolated for my tastes.

a simple man said...

omc - I agree about Woodburn. It is a great house on a terrific lot but it is just that little bit too isolated from the places I love (Uplands Park, Cattle Point, Willows Beach, Estevan Village, Oak Bay Village).

Looking forward to the numbers this morning.

BTW - some really great articles on Canadian housing at http://theeconomicanalyst.com/ lately.

Marko said...

Monday, July 25, 2011 8:00am:

MTD July
2011 2010
Net Unconditional Sales: 380 527
New Listings: 1,062 1,119
Active Listings: 4,902 4,477

Please Note

•Left Column: stats so far this month
•Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

a simple man said...

110 sales last week for 44.5 weeks of inventory. Active listing have gone up since last week.

The market is staggering under its own weight.

Just Jack said...

Yet, the months of inventory is not the same through out the Greater Victoria area. Depending on where you live or what you own, the real estate market sucks or is doing just fine.

The months of inventory for detached homes broken down by broad areas is

5.4 for Victoria Core cities
12.3 for the Western Communities
6.0 for the Saanich Peninsula


And if you are into strata properties like condos and town homes the numbers are

6.6 for Victoria core districts
13.2 for the Western Communities
8.6 for the Peninsula


And for all of those American investors who bought cheap properties on Salt Spring Island in order to escape George Bush. 3 house sales in the last 30 days and 221 properties listed for sale. That's 6 YEARS of inventory! Of course that is ridiculous, evened out over the last year its more like 2 years of inventory. But the point is the same. You may own a million dollar property on Salt Spring. - you just can't sell it in a reasonable time, unless you discount the property heavily. And that's about to happen as the properties fall into foreclosure and the banks get power of sale, and want their money in 90 days.

And here is the weakness of CMHC insurance - the banks don't give a crap, the mortgage is insured. Unlike the good old days when they had an interest in getting the best price for the property.

Live by the sword - die by the sword.

Fiduciary said...

A Simple Man - I agree, I'm loving the analysis over at the economic analyst. I've seen HHV poke his head in over there as well. I like getting a view of the overall Canadian market there and the local picture here, they compliment each other nicely.

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