Monday, September 24, 2012

Sept 24 - Monday Market Update

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands. 
September 2012 month to date  (previous week in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 321 (208, 97) 
New Listings: 939 (671, 359)
Active Listings:  4768 (4716, 4690)
Sales to new listings ratio: 34% (31%, 27%) 

September 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 458
New Listings: 1303
Active Listings: 4940
Sales to new listings ratio: 35%
Sales to active listings ratio: 9% or 10.8 MOI

Current SFH average is $618k, with a median of $531k, while condo average is at $331k.  Marko says "The SFH MTD Median is subject to quite a bit of variability right now, it could easily swing to 520k with two sales under 515k or up to 538k with two sales above 550k."

It's remarkable how consistent the numbers are this year.  A few less sales and listings as the same month last year.  So the inventory isn't increasing anymore YOY, but the months of inventory are still significantly higher.  We're shortly before the time when many sellers give up and try their luck again in the spring, although at this point I doubt many still seriously believe a bounce is just around the corner.

232 comments:

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SJ said...

lol introvert, not so sure you should be criticizing Edmonton on severe crime when the stats show Victoria is way worse Sep 24 Times Colonist

Victoria also scores high in severe crime incidents. Its Statistics Canada crime severity index rating of 144 in 2011 compared with a national average of 82. Winnipeg had a score of 132 and Edmonton 110.

dasmo said...

I was born in Alberta. There is a reason the wages are twice as high. Enough said.

Johnny-Dollar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
a simple man said...

over 200 by thursday - this blog is now busy!

soperj said...

@dasmo
Wages are twice as high because there is twice the demand for workers. Same as San Fransisco, same as Australia.

@introvert
Even after living here for 15 years, I'll never understand why the people of Victoria and Vancouver are so insecure about their city that they have to resort to putting down other cities to make themselves feel better about their own. Oh and when you live in a dry climate, -30 really isn't that bad. At -25 I'd be out on the outdoor rink playing hockey with a sweater and toque every night.

dasmo said...

And they need to pay them a lot to live there...Snow is fun to play in just not to live in, especially once it turns to muddy icy sludge. I've done my time in it in both Alberta and Ottawa. I would rather live in Ottawa than Edmonton. When the Oilers were in their day I might have been ok with it just for the energy of it all but now, you could not pay me enough.

Introvert said...

Why else would all our youth with dreams are headed there?

Edmonton is my nightmare. All the money in the world couldn't bribe me to live there.

"Edmonton's promotional video" you don't have to envision, here it is

That was a Travel Alberta video, not a promotional video for Edmonton. That video makes me want to re-visit Jasper National Park, not re-visit Edmonton.

And by the way, Jasper National Park is a four-hour drive from Edmonton. If Edmonton ever used Jasper as a reason to live in Edmonton, it would be like Victoria using Mt. Rainier National Park as a reason to live in Victoria.

Johnny-Dollar said...

Ditto on that soperj

And that's why I think the Victoria video had the comments closed. And also that it was overly embellished too.

Or does anyone really think that the beach they show (French Beach) is just 10 minutes away. I would like to meet any person that has ever been able to sail, golf and ski on the same day in Victoria. Especially as the video states it never snows in Victoria.

Victoria is a nice town, just the way it is. You should not have to mislead people or over sell it to get employees to move here. Maybe if employees offered a competitive salary they wouldn't have to make videos like this one.

soperj said...

@dasmo Maybe they need to pay them alot to live in Fort Mac. Why do they pay double to people in San Fran? Australia? Certainly not because of the weather.

@introvert
By the way the closest place to go skiing in Victoria is 3 and a half hours away, Yet they mention it multiple times in that video they posted. So.....

Introvert said...

I was born in Alberta. There is a reason the wages are twice as high. Enough said.

I, too, was born in Alberta.

Did anyone hear or read about the big hail storm that Calgary had back in August? Turns out the Alberta Severe Weather Management Society sent up four planes to pump chemicals into the storm clouds, just before the storm hit, in the hopes of mitigating the unavoidable hail damage. The result was still millions of dollars worth of insurance claims. In fact, my parents-in-law will need to replace their roof, as a result.

Rare? In 2010 there was a hail storm that resulted in $400 million dollars worth of damage.

The good old Calgary storms. I remember them well. Great place to live! And remember: it's a dry cold!

Johnny-Dollar said...

Edmonton's population: 812,000
Victoria's population: 80,000

10 times more Canadian's disagree with Introvert than agree with him.

dasmo said...

Maybe you should move there?

Johnny-Dollar said...

Maybe they don't want you back.

Introvert said...

Edmonton's population: 812,000
Victoria's population: 80,000

10 times more Canadian's disagree with Introvert than agree with him.


Edmonton: infinite land available for city expansion.
Victoria: not.

dasmo said...

Chuckle JJ.

Johnny-Dollar said...

Population increase between 2006 to 2011 (source Census Canada)

Edmonton 11.2% increase
Victoria 2.5% increase

Not only do more people live in Edmonton, but more people are moving there too.

There is nothing wrong about having pride in your city. But you shouldn't have to diss other other great Canadian cities in order to prove a point.

Just enjoy what you have today - because it won't be here 30 years from now.

Introvert said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Introvert said...

Just enjoy what you have today - because it won't be here 30 years from now.

What won't be here 30 years from now?

Wilshire said...

Many of you are looking to buy in Oak Bay. 1017 Monterey just lowered their price by 20K to 529K.

This one is getting ready to leave the dock. Delay and you will miss the boat!

1017 Monterey in South Oak Bay

I have more deals for serious buyers (lowball??)

Introvert said...

Just enjoy what you have today - because it won't be here 30 years from now.

File that one under "Bitter Renter Comments."

Leo S said...

File that one under "Bitter Renter Comments."

Uh oh. It's getting nasty on the second page of comments. I better put up a new post!

Johnny-Dollar said...

It has nothing to do with being a renter or home owner. Cities change. And in North America, our attitude is the bigger the better.

More density and more traffic.

30 years ago, Victoria was known as the City of Gardens. A city of families. Not so today, with water restrictions and new construction aimed at the single urban professional.

Or does anyone know of any plan by any government official to change this trend.

We already have a Vancouver, we don't need another one.

Introvert said...

30 years ago, Victoria was known as the City of Gardens. A city of families. Not so today, with water restrictions...

You're citing water restrictions as a prime example of negative change? Good grief.

Leo S said...

You're citing water restrictions as a prime example of negative change? Good grief.

Last time my parents came down to visit they left again soon. They said 15 years ago Victoria had a calm, small town feel. Now it's busy and lots of traffic all the time.

Face it, the Victoria of 30 years will be nothing like the Victoria of today. I'm sure it'll still be nice, but any vestiges of a "small town" will certainly be gone.

Introvert said...

30 years ago, Victoria was known as the City of Gardens. A city of families. Not so today, with water restrictions and new construction aimed at the single urban professional.

We already have a Vancouver, we don't need another one.


Yes, why don't our local officials create some new land in the core out of thin air and build more SFHs on it?

As we know, Vancouver sure made a big mistake when it didn't create new land out of thin air in Shaughnessy and in Kitsilano.

dasmo said...

Victoria is better than it was thirty years ago. I'm not sure the island is though.

Phil said...

Anyone else watching the daily numbers for Vancouver? This month will likely have less sales than Sept 2008 which was considered a disaster and lead to the mini-crash and government intervention with rates and CMHC backing. Both of which won't be happening this time around.

Interesting times going forward folks.

Animal Spirit said...

I've got one sale on my main PCS in the last four days - SFH <575 core areas + Brentwood. Are others seeing the same in their PCS accounts, or are there higher end sales happening?

LeoM said...

30 Years ago Victoria was indeed different, the small town feel is going down and City of Victoria property taxes are sky-rocketing under our high-paid devout socialists at city hall. The mortgage won't kill you in Victoria, but the out-of-control property taxes under Fortin's leadership certainly will; and not just the taxes you pay today but the infrastructure deficit being incurred by ignoring the underground services by the present group of socialists at Victoria City Hall will be the final straw that sinks Victoria in coming years when the infrastructure collapses.

Johnny-Dollar said...

We might have close to 125 house sales in the core districts this month, compared to 163 for the same month in 2008. There are about 835 active house listings now.

The Western Communities had 77 home sales in September 2008 and should have around 55 this month with an inventory of 635 listings.

The Gulf Island have some 410 listings and are on track to have 25 sales this month.

koozdra said...

Someone turned off the music.

Simon said...

JJ, Thanks, There are stairs going down the craw space. I guess there is no need to cut hole on the exterior wall. Appreciate your information very much.

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