| April 2013 | April 2012 | ||||
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Uncond. Sales | 116 |
258
|
586
| ||
| New Listings | 345 | 662 |
1470
| ||
| Active Listings | 4323 | 4417 |
4638
| ||
| Sales to New Listings |
34%
| 39% |
40%
| ||
| Sales Projection | 510 | 567 | |||
| Months of Inventory |
7.9
| ||||
Relatively strong week for sales. This is the first sign of life in the spring market, we are now pretty much bang on the sales pace of last year (265 at this point in the month). As the year progresses we will see fewer big YoY declines in sales because we are hitting months that were already starting to slow last year.
When the mortgage restrictions were introduced last July, some lenders predicted that they would take 8-9 months to work through the market, so some of the increase in sales might be due to some of the effects of the mortgage restrictions wearing off. Too early to tell.
238 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 238 of 238You hear the term tear-down quite a lot on this blog. But what really is a tear-down? Just because a home looks like a dump, does't necessary make it a tear-down.
The house on Roseberry that Marko called a tear-down was spruced up slightly and now they are trying to rent it for $1,600 a month. That's not a tear-down as it earns income.
The obvious answer is that if you can't rent the home then there is no remaining economic life and the home is a tear-down.
Many homes in Victoria rent for less than $1,600 a month and they would therefore not be considered tear-downs either.
Because if looks were the determining factor then most of the older areas of Victoria would be under the bulldozer's blade.
And if that was occuring, I would admit that there is a strong demand for new housing in Victoria.
I did not look at the home on Newton when they had the open house. I think it could be updated and be quite livable for some time.
$442K is a new low for SFH in OB for this year, as far as I know. And that is a decent-sized lot for OB.
Did you see that place Jack? The layout made no sense, the kitchen and bathroom looked 70s or 80s at best, and the hardwood had a stain in one of the bedrooms. I stopped paying close attention about two seconds after I walked through the front door.
I wouldn't rent it personally. My guess as to what it's worth renting for is maybe $1000. Certainly nowhere close to $1600.
Tear-down / gut / major renovation - take your pick. I'd be quite surprised if I saw someone move in prior to any of those three things happening.
Dave3
Yes, for OB that Newton property is a low price.
OB is awesome. Newton is a nice street and I like Carnaran park and Tomlee's market.
Carnarvan - damn u no editing function.
Did you see the pictures of the home on Craigslist? Or when the home was up for sale?
The rental listing does not appear on Craigslist anymore and it was only up for a week.
Sales definitely going gangbusters this week....
The house on Roseberry that Marko called a tear-down was spruced up slightly and now they are trying to rent it for $1,600 a month. That's not a tear-down as it earns income.
I would say most tear downs can earn income. In fact, a lot of developers/builders rent out tear downs until they are ready to build.
Sales definitely going gangbusters this week....
Judging by the amount of accepted offers next week will be strong as well, plus we have a Monday/Tuesday at the end of the month which are also strong sales days.
Marko: Not a bad property it would seem at 1180 Craigflower. Huge lot allowing for a new build strata duplex with secondary suite(s)? Sold for $340K. What do you think?
Tough area to sell new product. Just look at the townhomes on Craigflower....nice product but on the market for almost two years and selling slowly.
Do you really think that people buying condos today are thinking they are taking a risk? I highly doubt it.
I don't think you give the current buyer enough credit. Most buyers, me included, realize that there is a large amount of risk. I tell all my buyers straight up, "If you have to sell in the next 5 years you will loose money." For the most part, people are aware but they buy for various other reasons. The market has been flat give or take for 6 years now - few are banking on making money.
However, there are risks in stocks and other investments as well, such as gold :)
"If you have to sell in the next 5 years you will loose money."
5 years? How do you get that number?
I don't tell anyone that they will make money in 10 years; however, I am confident that odds of making money on real estate in the next 5 are slim (after expenses such as commission). If you do improvements and/or development on the purchased property maybe you can make something.
If you buy something today for 600k and sell it for 620k in 5 years I consider that a loss; however, it doesn't mean for someone looking to buy that it is worth waiting 5 years.
Marko's ten year real estate theory states that no matter the time you buy you will make money when you sell as long as you hold the property for ten years.
If we apply this theory to the US situation which began in 2006, then the full recovery is scheduled for 2016. This means that the prices have to not only achieve the bubble prices of 2005/2006 but surpass them.
Let me just remind you that the bubble burst in the US was so bad that it brought down major banks that needed to be bailed out by the government. This was a full blown speculative mania that triggered a huge financial crisis.
Does it really seem like in 3 years we'll see another bubble of such magnificent proportions?
I forgot to mention that we would have to be talking in real dollars.
Ten years of inflation!
Looking at assessments when looking at house prices isn't accurate, they were done last summer.
"Looking at assessments when looking at house prices isn't accurate, they were done last summer."
It certainly was on the way up.
>> Judging by the amount of accepted offers next week
Offers are a countable quantity, so that would be "number of accepted offers".
Introvert is laying down on the job, so I had to step in.
If we apply this theory to the US situation which began in 2006, then the full recovery is scheduled for 2016. This means that the prices have to not only achieve the bubble prices of 2005/2006 but surpass them.
I wouldn't be surprised if they did (nominal dollars). With the current rate of appreciation in many US cities (Chicago exempted), 2016 might well bring some back to peak levels if rates stay low. Places that saw massive overbuilding may take a bit longer.
For example, The "affordable" (30% of income) house price in Seattle is already back to almost peak valuations at these interest rates.
"I wouldn't be surprised if they did (nominal dollars)."
This would require that the same banks that were bailed out during the financial crisis would have to be able to lend out just as much money as they did before the crisis occurred.
Also why are interest rates low in the states? Do you really think they will QE for three more years?
Offers are a countable quantity, so that would be "number of accepted offers".
Introvert is laying down on the job, so I had to step in.
Very good, Leo. However, I believe it should be "lying" rather than "laying."
The lie/lay rules are ridiculously hard to remember. Even Grammar Nazis have trouble with them on occasion :)
ESL here....I'll take my English grammar mistakes in exchange for speaking a few different languages.
Marko's ten year real estate theory states that no matter the time you buy you will make money when you sell as long as you hold the property for ten years.
What? I said, "I don't tell anyone that they will make money in 10 years."
ESL here....I'll take my English grammar mistakes in exchange for speaking a few different languages.
I'm always impressed by polyglots--and envious!
I wouldn't be surprised if they did (nominal dollars). With the current rate of appreciation in many US cities (Chicago exempted), 2016 might well bring some back to peak levels if rates stay low.
I suppose anything's possible. Phoenix has the steepest ascent again (Albertans let loose). I don't think there's any examples in history of a housing bubble being so closely followed by another bubble. I would imagine the present rise in real rates (slowing inflation) will stop it well before lift off this time. The reports I've read in the past couple weeks are pointing to a slowing in the price ascent (US leading indicators dropping too). However I'll admit, it would be exciting to witness a repeat.
BC's inflation rate came out today at 0.5% y-o-y. I can't recall a period in my lifetime of such incredibly low inflation.
>> ESL here...
Me too. No excuses!
>> should be "lying" rather than "laying."
Damnit! Wasn't aware of the rule for laying/lying.
ESL here
Me three. Russian is my mother tongue.
This would require that the same banks that were bailed out during the financial crisis would have to be able to lend out just as much money as they did before the crisis occurred.
That is exactly it. Who is going to lend the money for someone to buy at 2006 prices knowing the disaster that followed?
Federally guaranteed loans in the US are capped at prices well below the 2006 peak. And the private sector in the US won't lend at high ratio even at today's prices.
For example, The "affordable" (30% of income) house price in Seattle is already back to almost peak valuations at these interest rates.
What that graph means is that a $470K house is as affordable today as a $314K house was in 2007, due to lower interest rates. In other words, someone with the median income could have bought a $314K house in 2007, or a $470K house today.
As you can see from the same graph and from other statistics, nominal house prices in Seattle are currently down around 25% from peak. With lower interest rates that means the same house is about twice as affordable today as in 2007.
SFH in City of Seattle total monthly cost $756
The point being that based on affordability Seattle is undervalued significantly compared to historical norms (pre-bubble), and assuming continued income gains that affordable level will be well past their peak prices by 2016.
Report: Student Debtors Under 30 Are Shying Away From Buying Homes, Cars
Like buying your home if your under 30 and still have a student loan was ever a good idea. Shoot I didn't buy a car again after university for a few years and lived with a roommate for almost another ten.. In fact I just retired that car after driving it for almost 20 years. Like the article says, life isn't a sitcom. You can't be a freelance writer and own a walk in closet full of thousand dollar shoes and own a spacious apartment in Manhattan. Too much television rots the brain....
"Like buying your home if your under 30 and still have a student loan was ever a good idea."
Not only is this happening, it's common. We can thank the banks for giving these people loans. Well again these people are five percenters so really we should be thanking the CMHC. Actually Dasmo, we should be thanking you. It's your tax dollars at work here.
But why stop at a house? Along with my mortgage my bank gave me a line of credit. We're starting a family so we NEED a new car. Don't worry about it because we can finance the car over seven years. LOW MONTHLY PAYMENTS.
We are a culture of debt. We are going to get very cranky when that debt suddenly dries up.
I bought a home when I was 30 while I not only had a student loan, I was still in school.
Best financial decision I ever made.
Part of that was the market - although it seemed high at the time - it went higher. The other part was the rental income.
Today, I would still do this with the right home and the right mortgage term.
Student loan interest is tax deductible......I could have paid mine off 5 years ago but I used the money to buy a stock which has doubled and has a book dividend of 12% now. If you are financially discplined and literate paying off student loans may not be the best way to go; however, if your prone to spending money on various garbage maybe paying off student loans is smarter.
Exactly. All debt is not equal.
Well Totoro was 30 and Marko had a technical payoff if he was able to accumulate a positive bottom line... so you still both passed my judgement ;-)
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