Wednesday, April 3, 2013

March Decline-o-meter

Update on the decline from peak.


Also a new measure I'm playing with..  The number of properties that have gone off market in a given month compared to the inventory at the time.



It seems to me that fewer properties are going off market every year.  In a strong market that might indicate that the places are selling, but since we know they aren't, my theory is that people are losing confidence that the market will recover.  Instead of pulling their properties and waiting for next year, people are hanging on and dropping their prices.

Also low sales and low off market rate == lots of stale listings out there.

208 comments:

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koozdra said...

I think the 78% figure is more Vancouver territory.

patriotz said...

How did the economist get 78% overvalued? That puts my house value at $114k where it rents for $1550????

No, they are saying that house prices in Canada are 78% higher than a reasonable multiple of rents, such as 150.

How does your house come out on that measure?

DavidL said...

My house works out to about 220 x the expected monthly rent ...

Anonymous said...

“How did the economist get 78% overvalued? That puts my house value at $114k where it rents for $1550????”
-----
The investor I know uses 1% as a rule of thumb. They consider a property further only if the monthly rent is greater than 1% of the purchase price. That would put your house @ $155k… much higher than $114k.

One bought recent @ only about 0.7% ..or roughly the same as Patriotz 150 multiple. But he knew it was under rented and could get it above 1%…Calif property.

Dave said...

The place we rent, if you add top and bottom rental fees together and use the latest BC assessment, comes out to 255.
Dave3

dasmo said...

Still, $155 k would put this place back to 90's prices...
By the BC assessment the property is 350. The max rent this place could get is probably 1750? That's still over 300.
Interesting to note that when I bought my first place in 2003, I would estimate it would have rented for $1250. My purchase back then was about 155. Still bought overvalued then. Darn!

None said...

I currently live in a 650K house and only pay $2000 a month to rent. A reasonable assessment of a full cost of home ownership not obscured by home prices increases is about $4000 a month. In my case my rent is 100% under valued.

Thank you land lord.

Alexandrahere said...

All purpose built "duplexes" don't necessarily have separate addresses. The older non-conforming buildings often have only the one address.....or sometimes the address plus "upper" & "lower"....or the address plus A and B.

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