Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Debt, savings, fearmongering

Just some reposted links (thanks koozdra) to get rid of that dreaded "newer" link.

Transition from low interest rates will be painful.    Nice to see they're at least aware of the problem, but it remains to be seen whether their actions to reduce risk will do so, or tip the market into the ditch even faster.

1/3 of Canadians living paycheque to paycheque.   Not much detail there, but apparently the people that aren't saving are of various income levels, so it ain't just those scummy renting ne'er do wells.

Mortgage brokers suddenly concerned about rental rates.  Won't someone think of the renters!

Zoocasa.com has launched in Canada with MLS listings.   Only Toronto so far, but apparently Victoria is in the next group of cities that will get the MLS upgrade.  Finally some competition in this space and the CREA are going to have to aggressively move to modernize their site to stay competitive.    Zoocasa seems to have quite an odd business model based on collecting money from agents for referrals, and then giving some of it back to the buyer.   I wonder how that will integrate with the business model of discount reduced commission realtors?

So far Zoocasa only has about half of the listings that are on realtor.ca


98 comments:

Just Jack said...

Just looking over this week's sales activity and half of those buying in the core districts of Victoria are paying less than the assessed value and half are paying more than assessed.

In the Western Communities more people pay less than assessed value for their homes with only a few paying slightly more than assessed. On average about 6 percent less that assessed value.

Overall sales are tracking close to last years. It took about 40 days to reach 500 house sales this year about the same as last year.

And the median house price for all types of houses in all areas of Greater Victoria using a sample of the last 500 sales is down 3% over last year.

Of course your type of home and your location may differ because that's a pretty broad sweep through the house market.

As one blogger likes to point out "not very crashy". And unless the number of listins rises substantially it won't be a crash.

This is still a demand-driven downturn. Maybe by the time you can count at least 4 homes for sale on your street it might be a bit more "crashy"

And that ends our Spring market.

Seth Perry said...

Another link to add to the list

Canadian home building to plunge 30% by 2015, costing the economy 150,000 jobs, mortgage industry warns

Canada’s housing market is slowing dramatically in terms of both sales and construction, dragging down economic growth and putting some 150,000 jobs at risk in coming years, a mortgage industry association warns in its spring report.

The Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals stops short of calling the ongoing slide that began about nine months ago a crash, but chief executive Jim Murphy says policy-makers should stop trying to tighten lending rules further and start thinking about helping for first-time purchasers.

"Some people thought the market would come back(this spring). Well it hasn't come back. It is a definite trend." - chief executive Jim Murphy of The Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals

Murphy said he has asked Ottawa to consider indexing the RRSP homebuyers plans, or giving more flexibility to qualifying first-time buyers in terms of amortization periods to lower monthly payments.

and now the good news..

Keep in mind that the following data comes from an online survey (not sure how accurate the data is).

* most Canadian homeowners are having little difficulty meeting mortgage payments and are in fact paying off their debts faster than required.

* seven in 10 homeowners have fixed mortgages and are paying a lower interest rate from the previous year.

* most mortgage holders said they expect to repay their loan 3.4 years earlier than the 25 year amortization period.

koozdra said...

Overheard at the gym...

Person 1: My house has been on the market for a while, I wonder what's going on?

Person 2: Oh don't worry, this should blow over in a couple of months...

Marko said...

Zoocasa is basically doing cash back for buyers by collecting a referral fee and then giving a portion of it to the buyer....I've been doing it for three years now.

At least Zoocasa can put some advertising muscle behind it. Should make things interesting.

Chris vanresident said...

Hmmm . . . I just checked out the Zoocasa site. It has some very interesting data that you don't have on the MLS site. For instance, it gives you the demographic information for the neighbourhood of your target property including ethnic makeup, total population, age ranges, income and average home value. Some of the figures are surprising. I plugged in a listing in Gordon Head and discovered that the average household income there is about the same as for South Oak Bay ($85,000) and it has a very high Chinese population - 27% which looks like the highest in the city.

Chris vanresident said...

Hmmm . . . I just checked out the Zoocasa site. It has some very interesting data that you don't have on the MLS site. For instance, it gives you the demographic information for the neighbourhood of your target property including ethnic makeup, total population, age ranges, income and average home value. Some of the figures are surprising. I plugged in a listing in Gordon Head and discovered that the average household income there is about the same as for South Oak Bay ($85,000) and it has a very high Chinese population - 27% which looks like the highest in the city.

Leo S said...

Where does the referral money come from though? Our of the selling realtors commission? I assume zoocasa is not acting as a realtor and collecting the buyers agent commission?

a simple man said...

wow - zoocasa will certainly weed out the weak realtors. This may be a game-changer.

dasmo said...

Where are the demographics?

koozdra said...

"Where are the demographics?"

http://www.zoocasa.com/en/victoria-bc-real-estate/2161651-1673-warren-gdns-victoria-bc-v8s1s9-323254

Scroll down to the map. Select "neighborhood" tab on the left. It will display "Average household income".

Introvert said...

Some of the figures are surprising. I plugged in a listing in Gordon Head and discovered that the average household income there is about the same as for South Oak Bay ($85,000) and it has a very high Chinese population - 27% which looks like the highest in the city.

Yes, Chinese people seem to favour Gordon Head. That has been noted on this blog before. That GH's incomes are on par with South Oak Bay's might be a little surprising. But it might not.

Just Jack said...

I don't recall anyone at anytime ever mentioning someone's race or the racial mix of any neighborhood on this blog.

While not racist in itself, personally, I think it's the thin edge of the wedge and not necessary for Zoocasa to report. And I think it's a bad decision by the owner of the company to include that information.

I hope that my decision to buy or not to buy into a neighborhood will never hinge on the number of Chinese that may live there.

Reporting that kind of data just feels creepy to me. It just isn't necessary - so why do it.

dasmo said...

I agree JJ. One of the things that makes Victoria unique is it really is a melting pot. We don't have segregated neighbourhoods here(except for maybe China town). If ethnic density is used a selling tool then it will encourage ethnic zones over time.

Introvert said...

I don't recall anyone at anytime ever mentioning someone's race or the racial mix of any neighborhood on this blog.

Just Jack, here's what your wife mentioned on the blog two years ago:

I've heard that Gordon Head is popular with Asians because of the house sizes. Not sure how true this is. Maybe the Feng Shui in Gordon Head is good?

S2

April 18, 2011 at 10:41 PM

caveat emptor said...

The data on ethnic makeup of neighbourhoods is available elsewhere.

That said it does seem a little creepy making it available on a real estate site.

"Nice neighbourhood - but look the data shows that there are too many of 'those people' and not enough of 'our kind'"

caveat emptor said...

I don't find it too surprising that South Oak Bay incomes and Gordon Head incomes are similar. South Oak Bay is thick with retirees, likely living on modest incomes plus savings. Gordon Head on the other hand is likely to be a magnet for dual income families - generally appropriate housing style, close enough to be convenient but far enough to be affordable

Justrenter said...

Horrible place!

http://www.zoocasa.com/en/victoria-bc-real-estate/2192189-3890-braefoot-rd-victoria-bc-v8p3t2-323621

koozdra said...

I like that zoocasa has a view count for each listing. If only we could get a comments section.

Justrenter said...

Homeowners: Don’t be caught flat-footed when interest rates rise

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/homeowners-dont-be-caught-flat-footed-when-interest-rates-rise/article12076749/

koozdra said...

"Interest rates are at an all time low, but what happens when they return to normal levels?
A 2% rise in rates could translate to a monthly payment increase of $300-$500!"


What? I thought interest rates are going to remain low for the foreseeable future.


"Still not convinced, how about a FREE Gift?"
..
"We are so excited about this strategy, we’ll give you a $10 Starbucks Gift Card just for checking it out!"

Oh, "free" coffee. I guess I'll check it out.

Payment Shock Protection (PSP)

caveat emptor said...

Was thinking about the previous discussion on wood frame house longevity. I don't claim any particular expertise in this area. But it is of more than passing interest since I live in a 100 year old frame house.

My somewhat informed opinion would be that lifetime of the wood is not the real issue, rather it is how well the wood is protected from the weather. Any house, old or modern, where the wood frame is regularly getting and staying wet will probably have a lifetime in years not decades. Conversely the wood frame could last a very long time if it is kept dry by regular maintenance of siding and roofing.

Old houses had a couple of advantages in the protecting the wood department (1) Often they were built with bigger roof overhangs (2) Their notorious lack of airtightness does at least have the virtue that any wood that gets wet can dry quickly.

Looking in my area of houses that were all built almost exactly 100 years ago - of 12 houses (neighbours plus us): 2 have been demolished and rebuilt, 2 have been VERY heavily renovated such that they are essentially new houses with a few 100 yr old bits. The remaining 8 are more or less original, though in general with lots of add-ons, additions, renovations etc. Of the houses (4/12) that no longer exist in their original form 1/12 was so poorly maintained that it became a clear tear-down. The other 3/12 didn't "fail" so much as fall victim to changes in taste and modern desires for larger houses, more luxuries and different layouts

JJ asked the question which I'll paraphrase as "do you expect your 80 yr old house to last another 80?". So could the remaining 8/12 houses in the area last another 60 years (to add up to JJ's 160)?

I see no reason why not. There are no obvious teardowns among the remaining 8. Foundations have probably done most of their settling already. Siding and roofs are being maintained. So my prediction would be that barring large scale disaster several will still stand in 2073.

koozdra said...

"If you've owned your home for a few years, chances are you've been building up some nice equity."

In most markets, yes, not Victoria, but go on.

"And with mortgage rates hovering around historic lows, this is a great time to look at rolling the cost of your renovation into your mortgage."

Exactly. What's the point of keeping all that equity in your house? Borrow against the equity because that the value of your home will never go down. Again, not in Victoria.

This is the best time to go into debt and everybody is doing it. Low interest rates mean you can have the things that you want now.

Renovation Financing

Just Jack said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Just Jack said...

Inspection Checklist
Finding the Weak Links
Foundation

Are there any signs of settlement or movement?cracks. sloped floors, leaning walls?
With brick or stone foundations, is the mortar loose or missing? On a concrete foundation. is it deteriorated, spalling, etc.?
Is there any sign of deteriorating wood, termites, or water damage?
Do the downspouts dump water near the foundation or does the ground slope toward the foundation, allowing water to "pond" next to the building and accelerate deterioration of the foundation or cause settlement?

Walls & Columns

Are columns, particularly in the basement, rotted, undersized, or poorly attached to the basement floor or the wood beams they support?
Is there a "soft" story?weak, undersized, unbraced walls or columns such as a garage or an open basement supporting a heavy, solid portion of the house?
Are there any "cripple" walls (i.e., wood studs without structural sheathing or plywood) supporting floors or walls above?
Is there any cracking in the brick walls (i.e., cracks through the individual bricks or substantial movement), particularly above, below, or between windows or doors?
Are there any masonry parapets or gables?
Are bricks cracked, loose, spalled, or missing?
On multiple wythe masonry walls (multiple layers of brick), are header bricks (narrow end facing out) absent?
Are there large openings in the exterior walls, or openings which were added or enlarged?
Are any additions to the house not securely attached to the house or pulling away due to settlement or a poor foundation?
Are porch columns angled, shifting, unsecured to porch deck or roof, or "punching through" the porch deck?

Floors & Ceilings

Is the bridging between the joists poorly secured, absent, or spaced more than 8 ft. apart?
Are the floor joists simply resting on the foundation, in joist pockets, or only toe-nailed to walls?
Have any joists been substantially cut away, particularly where plumbing, wiring, or ductwork was installed?
Are any joists split, twisted. or rotted?

Roof

Are there rafters or trusses that are not attached with fasteners to the load bearing (usually exterior) walls?
Is the roof decking only boards with gaps between (skip sheathing) instead of continuous plywood?
Are there heavy roofing materials such as tile or slate?
Are masonry chimneys, parapets, or gables unbraced, unreinforced or not secured to roof or ceiling structure?
Is the mortar on the chimney deteriorated?

Historic & Interior Features

Is the plaster cracked (more than hairline or seasonal cracking)?
Are there tall furnishings unsecured to walls?
Could hanging or tall light fixtures swing into walls or fall if they swing?
Is the water heater freestanding, not secured to the building structure? Is the gas supplied through a rigid pipe?
Do cabinet doors swing free (i.e., not secured with latches)?
Are valuable objects, knickknacks, or equipment (computers, etc.) unsecured or on open shelves?

Site & Building History

Are there parts of neighboring buildings or site features (e.g., chimneys or retaining walls) which could damage your house if they collapsed?
Has the house been damaged by previous earthquakes or ground settlement?
Has there been heavy, repeated shaking of the ground by heavy equipment?
Has the house been poorly maintained over time?

koozdra said...

Have you been a diligent saver?

Has mom and dad convinced you that saving for your retirement is a good thing?

I have a deal for you. Take all that money and use it to buy your first home. Since no crash is coming your money is safe inside that new house you just bought.

You can even take 15 years to pay it back.

Have to skip a couple payments to yourself? No problem, that amount will just be added to your income for that year. Plus some minor fees here and there, whatever, nothing to worry about.

Hopefully no crash is coming.

Just Jack said...

I hit enter to soon on the above.

If you have concerns about your wood frame home - this is a general check list to show the weak points in your home when it comes to an earthquake.

I think most of you can see how this relates to the construction standards and aging issues of these homes.

Just Jack said...

d

caveat emptor said...

Definitely newer build should hold up WAY better in an earthquake than anything from the first half of last century. Victoria hasn't been hit with a strong and close earthquake yet to test all those old buildings.

Old houses in general have some real structural deficiencies that "don't matter" a lot of the time but would be a problem in an earthquake.

A number of things can be done to mitigate the hazard, some are easy and cheap, others very expensive.

Whether you choose to rent or buy the CRD's earthquake hazard maps are worth a look. Fairfield has two big areas where hazards may be magnified.

Renter said...

Wow. Zoocasa can tell you what ethnicity your neighbours would be, but doesn't see fit to share the lot size.

Or am I just missing it?

dasmo said...

"In framed structures, lath and plaster (stucco) assemblies can contribute significantly to the shear value of the building design. Studies completed from university engineering departments in California and British Columbia have demonstrated that properly applied lath and portland cement plaster have contributed more to the lateral shear value than previously thought."

dasmo said...

"Gypsum plaster possesses the unique characteristic and ability to recalcine. Simply stated, when the gypsum plaster is exposed to heat, the chemically combined water is released as steam to the outer surface. This released steam helps in fire resistance as it aids in slowing the passage of heat through the gypsum plaster membrane. Much like a fire extinguisher on call around the clock, this is known as a passive fire protection system."

dasmo said...

"So why is old growth lumber better than new growth. Once a tree reaches 60 plus years old it has survived draughts, excessive rain, heat waves and cold spells and becomes much hardier. Most people know that the rings in a tree stump can tell you how old a tree is. The more rings per inch the older the tree. Old growth wood is stronger and more rot resistant than new growth. I can't tell you how many historic houses I've pulled the 1950's aluminum siding off to find the original old growth siding and trim. After repair and a good paint job this wood will last another 100 years and can yet again be restored."

caveat emptor said...

dasmo - definitely some of the wood you find in old houses is amazing. After seasoning in your attic for 100 years that old growth doug fir is like granite.

Even in my not overly long life I've noticed a real decline in the quality of wood that is commonly available without paying premium prices

david hain said...

Generally I don't listen to any post regarding mortgage brokers and rates on blogs,This write has compelled me to take a look at it and read it.Your writing style has been inspired me. Thank you, very great article.

david hain said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ernie Fallows said...

When I demoed our bathroom about 6 years ago the fir behind our bathtub and shower was indeed hard as a rock. The framing in the attic is also in mint shape.


What's strange to me though, is when we had the fir flooring stripped and refinished. Lots of the boards had that green tinge, like fresh wood, and the stuff has been here since the 40s.

a simple man said...

Indeed, if wood is protected from moisture it can season and mature over the years. It is when it is exposed to moisture and the elements that is degrades quickly. The coastal environment in Victoria is such that wood, if not protected, can degrade quickly. Some take care of their homes, other people do not, so a lot depends on how the previous owners of your old home kept up with maintenance.

Certainly, the wood from 60 years ago is a completely different animal than now. I remember disassembling a turn of the century farmhouse on the prairies. The density and strength of the wood was unbelievable. I am well over 200 pounds and could easily walk across a 2x4 laid on its long edge across 7 foot spans with barely any deflection in the span. A new 2x4 and I would be part of the floor beneath.

dasmo said...

Yep, This is why a roof with good overhangs is so important. Also, don't plant stuff against the house! Location helps as well. A House is the shady wet bush (he he) built in the 70's from lower grade lumber will not fair as well as an arts and crafts house built with far better materials in sunny Fairfeild....

koozdra said...

"Win up to $20,000 Call or email for details."

If you buy the house you have the chance to lube up and wrestle the current owner. If you are able to pin him, he's older so it shouldn't be a problem, you get twenty thousand dollars.

12756417

Ernie Fallows said...

An area that worries me is the band joist/rim joist sill plate area. Some folks are getting foam insulation sprayed in this area all the way down the foundation wall. The problem I see is that it can lock in moisture and cause rot. Also, you can no longer view for termites.

Just Jack said...

It does seem that the correction in prices that started in the outlying areas of Greater Victoria has now arrived in the more sought after core areas and house styles.

If you consider character style homes in James Bay desirable that is.

Back in June 2008 such a property sold along Government street for $620,000. The current vendors have done some tastefull remodelling and updates and have just been able to sell the home for $570,000 after 260 days on the market.

The price of starter homes in the core is now hovering slightly above $300,000. Or you can get a two-bedroom condo in the Tillicum area for $132,000 (asking price)

That has to be putting more pressure on the rental market in the core as the option of owning becomes more desirable over renting.

An what happened to all of the Investors that used to be snapping up these properties - where have they gone?

I guess they don't want to catch a falling knife.

DavidL said...

@koozdra
If you buy the house you have the chance to lube up and wrestle the current owner.

Ughh! You can't be serious ...

dasmo said...

Don't hold it back! Let's see the place JJ.

Just Jack said...

There's a starter home in the core that seems to be worth a look.

That's 1286 Derby listed for $409,900. Its a small house with an unfinished basement on a big lot. Put your nickle downpayment on the home any your living in a home for $2,000 a month. Don't forget to water your children - because they can now have roots!

And for all you millionaires, I think there are some cool homes listed. Let's take a look at million dollar homes that will cost you under $5,000 a month after your 20 percent down.

4955 Cordova Bay. Waterfront along Cordova Bay for $849,000. Waterfront in the core and you can bike to work. And a 2900 square foot home thrown in!

How about a 3,000 square foot house in Ten Mile Point with views of the ocean. $5,000 a month and you are in a fantastic neighborhood. Rumours are that the people who live there have never seen a homeless person in their entire lives!

And how about a mansion of star quality. 244 King George Terrace. View of the strait, lots of landscaping. All you need is Charlize Theron suntanning in the back yard to make it better. A mere $1,175,000 or $5,000 a month after your down payment. And I tell ya, the owner is taking a loss on this one. His loss - your gain. Charlize not included.

caveat emptor said...

If you are buying a million dollar home right now with 20% down you could conceivably have monthly payments of "only" around 3000 if you took the longest available amort (35 yr for non CMHC) and got an interest rate in the 2.8% ball park.

Crazy!

dasmo said...

Some editorial corrections:

4955 Cordova Bay - not waterfront...

244 King George Terrace require a gutting due to severe bad taste...OR if you want to attract Ass-Nuts.

Just Jack said...

A 35 year amortization makes the waterfront Cadboro Bay property and the King George water view property seem like even a better deal.

There are 153 million dollar and more homes for sale just in the core districts. That's more than a years supply on the market. That's a lot of selection and that's where you're likely to find some good deals.

With that much inventory, the agents are going to have a tough time pricing properties and they are going to be unsure of the property's worth as many of these homes have been owned a very long time. That may present an opportunity for the more savy prospective purchasers, like us, on this blogg.

-I mean some of us.

Leo S said...

Some corrections to your corrections:

>> 4955 Cordova Bay - not waterfront...

Looks waterfronty to me

dasmo said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
dasmo said...

I stand corrected....

subprime11 said...

I agree with JJ re: million dollar homes. With 12 months supply there is no rush to make any offers. Prices reductions to follow shortly. Wait till after August. Sellers will be easier to negotiate with after the spring market.

koozdra said...

"Drastic reduction, Now priced for immediate sale at $80,000 below assessed value. Possibly the best value offered in Fairfield By The Sea in years."

Ok guys, it's only half a million dollars now.

It'll sell for sure now.

13123987

dasmo said...

My guess is it will sell for between 450k to 480k.

Chris said...

For the high flyers, a lowball offer of 25M on Bear mtn? With dwindling lumber, land and labour costs, you might be able to turn a profit… if you can only sell them for roughly 1/2 peak.

http://www.timescolonist.com/bear-mountain-goes-up-for-sale-1.230687
What HSBC might expect to get for the property, which includes the golf courses, development land and the hotel, is expected to be well short of the $250 million it was owed when it took over the project.
There have been rumours of offers as low as $35 million and $50 million over the last few years, but Cowan would neither confirm those nor speculate on the price HSBC was hoping to get for it.

Marko said...

For the high flyers, a lowball offer of 25M on Bear mtn? With dwindling lumber, land and labour costs, you might be able to turn a profit… if you can only sell them for roughly 1/2 peak.

Hmmmm....last time I checked construction lumber is up 20% year over year.

dasmo said...

Langford should buy it and turn half into park land to pay us all back for their roll in this mess...

a simple man said...

Pretty big drops in lumber prices recently.

http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pages/249

dasmo said...

Just in time for my custom build!

Marko said...

Pretty big drops in lumber prices recently.

http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pages/249


Despite the one month drop the current average is much higher than the 10 year average. 2008 to beginning of 2012 lumber was significantly below the 10 year average. At the end of day, monthly commodity volatility aside, if you are building a home lumber will cost you more than it did 2008-2012.

Lumber would have to drop more than 30% to get back to early 2012 levels....probably not going to happen with the recovery in the US taking place.

There is a reason you see very few spec homes other there being built. New homes prices have dropped a bit; however, building lots haven't dropped the same amount and construction costs haven't drop to a great extent. Something things are cheaper, but some things are more expensive such as the new building code.

Chris said...

“Despite the one month drop the current average is much higher than the 10 year average.”

Two months, but who’s counting ;) Lumber is much lower than the peaks of the nineties.
Lumber has traded in the same channel for 20 years. It’s about to decline 50+%, same as the last 4 times. Unless, it’s different this time ;) I’m betting lumber sees 100 before it sees 400 again.

Translation of the -25+% decline in past 2 months: The US housing recovery has stalled.

Marko said...

It’s about to decline 50+%, same as the last 4 times. Unless, it’s different this time ;) I’m betting lumber sees 100 before it sees 400 again.

Well, since it is about to decline more than 50% maybe you should short it? A couple of moves like that and you'll be a multi-millionaire in no time, or perhaps you already are.

Marko said...

What happened to all those HHV contributors we had that were certain gold price had nowhere to go but up? Haven't heard from any of them in a while....interesting..

kabloona said...

Dave Hain, thanks for the link to the article by the Mortgage Brokers. The shape of things to come...?

Leo S said...

>> What happened to all those HHV contributors we had that were certain gold price had nowhere to go but up?

People always like to talk about their investments when they're going up. Marko included :)

Marko said...

It is just the bold predictions that people seem to make with 100% confidence that are annoying.

dasmo said...

The spotted prawn festival at the round house today really shows that a market there would be great! Wise of them to get moving on that end of the development. It will help sell the condos if the "village" and "community" is real and not just fantasy. Way too much fantasy going around these days with large developments....

dasmo said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
dasmo said...

Speaking of investing, Big mistake not investing in Netflix at the beginning of the year. Can't do it now, just can't....

Chris said...

I have another bold and confident prediction ;) Gold will fall 66.6% like it did in the eighties. Say, can anyone think of something else cherished and treasured about to fall like it did in the eighties? I know deep down you enjoy my predictions Marko ;)

Seth Perry said...

A couple of signs I noticed today. These two were across the street from each other near VGH.

No Money Down!

Reduced. Price Slahsed $70,000

Seth Perry said...

Reduced. Price "Slashed" $70,000 - (Spelling)

Jack and Cate said...

Oh those pesky realtors, having a tough time making a go of it with discount fees.....

http://tinyurl.com/p6nxv38

dasmo said...

This just in! An estate agent did something unethical to make a sale! Good grief, you are gobbling this drivel up. There is areason the profession has a bad reputation, because this type of thing goes on all the time. (Sorry Marko). This is milking the mood, not news....

Leo S said...

It's fraud and it is news. If it happens rarely it is news, and if it happens all the time then it really is news. You don't think that rampant fraud (I don't actually think it happens very often) amongst a group billing themselves to be professionals is newsworthy?

Marko said...

Monday, May 27, 2013 8:00am

MTD May
2013 2012
Net Unconditional Sales: 520 659
New Listings: 1,173 1,740
Active Listings: 4,745 5,015

Please Note
Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

Marko said...

Monday, May 27, 2013 8:00am

MTD May
2013 2012
Net Unconditional Sales: 520 659
New Listings: 1,173 1,740
Active Listings: 4,745 5,015

Please Note
Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

dasmo said...

Ian Thow is news. This is drivel and is digging deep to find anything to milk the mood. Only so many burning house covers until you reach saturation. Now it will be Realtors with devil horns. Ask most people on this blog and I bet they will have a story. In fact I have one that was never news that tops this. My father was looking at an office building downtown for a private sale at a good price. His Realtor bought it and offered to sell it to him at an inflated price.... Anyone else have any juicy gossip on how unethical retors are? Strawman note, I didn't say it happens all the time, I infered that this type of thing happens. Is it news that the Bar tender pockets the cash from an odd pour, or the cash clerk gives you the wrong change and pockets the rest, or the contractor subs your job to inexperienced people but bills you just the same? All of thes things happen, they are fraud, so how come they are not reported in the paper? Because no one cares!

Leo S said...

Dasmo: Strawman note, I didn't say it happens all the time

Dasmo 1 hour earlier: this type of thing goes on all the time.

Yep, that's a good strawman I've concocted there.

dasmo said...

This Just in! Man sells vacuum to frail old woman who didn't really need it!

dasmo said...

"this type of thing"

LeoM said...

I went to an open house this past weekend and got into a brief discussion with the realtor who tried to convince me that the market is very hot in the core areas of Victoria; in fact he said it’s hotter than it’s been in over 5 years and activity statistics are higher than at any time since 2007. He told me that he has access to statistics that only realtors have access to and these statistics are not available to the general public for two months. When I questioned his statement, he repeated that realtors have access to the market statistics a full two months earlier than the general public and that during the past two months the statistics show the slump is over, prices are increasing, and buyers are snapping up good properties as fast as they are listed.
Is this total BS or do realtors really have a monopoly on some early information and sales activity? I watch Marko’s weekly statistics and they don’t seem delayed for 8 weeks and I have not heard of any secret trend data that only realtors can access. Anyone know the truth?

Leo S said...

Yep, bartender scamming someone out of 95 cents and a realtor forging signatures to commit fraud is the same thing. I am absolutely mystified why they're not given equal media coverage.

Leo S said...

@LeoM.
Realtors see the accepted offers before conditions are removed, so yes they see a bit ahead of time, but more like 2 weeks, not 2 months.

koozdra said...

"Is this total BS"

Yes.

dasmo said...

More Strawman.... You are on a roll Leo!

dasmo said...

since y'all find it so riveting, more in our ongoing series of professional misconduct that goes unreported in the mainstream media....

"Mr. Gregoire was the named Executor in the will of a client who named his brother as his beneficiary with the alternate beneficiaries being the surviving siblings, nieces and nephews. Mr. Gregoire was also the named Executor in the brother’s will, who named his brother as his beneficiary with the alternate beneficiaries being the surviving siblings, nieces and nephews. One brother died November 6, 2009 and the other brother died November 13, 2009. Under the wills in question, the provisions for alternate beneficiaries were triggered as the brothers died seven days apart.
Mr. Gregoire began providing services as Executor for each Estate and also provided legal
services to each Estate. While providing such services for the Estates, on twelve occasions during a period of approximately five months, Mr. Gregoire transferred trust funds totalling $42,000.00 from his pooled trust account to his general account for the recovery of his fees, without obtaining the consent of the beneficiaries of the Estates or the approval of the Court. Of that amount and while acting as lawyer for the Estates, on four occasions during a six week period, Mr. Gregoire transferred a total sum of $9,500.00 on account of legal fees from his pooled trust account to his general account without first rendering statements of account. "

Leo S said...

Did your cornflakes have a yellow tint this morning?

Just Jack said...

LeoM, given the little information that you passed on, the agent that you spoke with is probably correct.

It may be better to think of the marketplace as not being homogeneous but rather a collection of smaller markets distinquished by location and house style.

As the market contracts, their are fewer sales but they tend to concentrate in neighborhoods and building styles. And it only takes two people to start duking it out over a Fernwood war shack with a suite to create a hot spot of activity. But that doesn't mean the market is returning to what it was years ago. This is just a temporary shortage. A snowstorm hits a small town and the price of bread skyrockets for a couple of days. Then it drops back down when the road is cleared and more bread arrives.

From the sound of it the location and style of home you're looking to buy is one of those hot ones.

Too bad for you. But if you want to follow the crowd - then you'll have to pay the price. And when that location or style of home is out of vougue, then that property will drop in value where it is once again in balance with other neighborhoods and properties.

Just Jack said...

Yeah I know there are spelling errors. My mouse is acting up and I can't get my cursor to stop jerking all over the place - have to reboot.

Marko said...

Realtors see the accepted offers before conditions are removed, so yes they see a bit ahead of time, but more like 2 weeks, not 2 months.

Actually we don't see accepted offers. I only find out about accepted offers if I go book a showing and the other REALTOR® calls me back to let me know there is an accepted offer.

The market in the core is certainly not hot, not even close.

Just Jack said...

Of the 285 (474)house sales so far this month 152 (239) have been in the core. The number of sales for the same month in 2007 are shown in brackets

29 in Victoria (46)
19 in Oak Bay (32)
8 in Esquimalt (13)
7 in View Royal (12)
89 in Saanich (136)

You see we have a long way to go before we could reach what was happening in sales during 2007.

The agent is just working for his client in order to make a sale. If you want unbiased information - then you'll have to hire someone.

a simple man said...

Or, come here - thanks for the stats, JJ. Always appreciated.

dasmo said...

Now that you mention it, the milk did have a yellow tint to it....

Leo S said...

>> Actually we don't see accepted offers.

I stand corrected.

SilverSurfer said...

Marko said:"What happened to all those HHV contributors we had that were certain gold price had nowhere to go but up? Haven't heard from any of them in a while....interesting.."

Sorry, I've been too busy amassing a small fortune in bitcoins ;-)

PS. My gold is still up, but then again I bought in early 2008.

Marko said...

Leo are we getting an update today? A lot my sellers look forward to your updated box every Monday.

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axeman said...

like I said before and was slammed, nothing will change until interest rates spike. 3% over a year is hardly a crash. Houses are still selling, because money is cheap. Ecomomys are picking up, not down, no recession in the cards in the next few years. Which means the bond market will erode, and fixed mortgages go up.