Marginally better sales than last year but that's nothing to write home about. We're still far off any semblance of a good market.
More graphs coming later, for now, here's an advertisement idea I saw for you, Marko. Maybe hand out some flyers?
251 comments:
1 – 200 of 251 Newer› Newest»Thanks for the advertising tip, but I think I'll be okay.
The next two months will be crucial in terms of setting the pace for the rest of the year.
The League of Gentlemen is an excellent show!
Did VREB blame the weather for relatively low sales?
Vancouver's still hot...
Vancouver home sales up 40 per cent from last February
And then there's Toronto... prices are up 8.6% from last February.
Shortage of new listings fuelling desperation among Toronto home buyers
Bank of Canada holds interest rate steady at 1% again
Benchmark interest rate has stayed at same level since September 2010
@Phil - It's a very different story here.
--------- F.L.A.T ---------
Since last spring, 3 people I know made offers on homes and 'low-balled', buyer refuses offer only to come back later to accept. 1 person I know sold recently and had to settle for 40K below asking, they were very surprised.
Another friend of the family is trying to sell but the agent says they won't list because she will never get what she needs to break even. She's going to rent it out until the market 'bounces back'.
Someone mentioned Garth in the last update here, and I'm now curious about what the consensus is on him in this forum?
(Frist post, btw, I always enjoy everyone's contributions here, thanks.)
Garth does own houses, just their values are under 30% of his total wealth. So he is not saying no to own them, but not to put all your money into them. A smart and shape guy, but reading his posts with a grain of slat would be the best.
WRT rebuild, friends are doing that in fairfield now, raise up and keep the top two floors. So far $150K in already, but basement floor is not poured, no windows, no sidings, so most are paid for labours. They expect $500K+ when it is mostly done (3000+sft including basement), but without landscaping and some details inside.
IMO Garth is a good (and much needed) antidote to the idea that as a rite of adulthood you MUST sink all your net worth into a house and sign on for 25 years of servitude to pay it off.
On the downside his actual predictions haven't been all that bang on and he tends to cut himself a LOT of slack when "evaluating" his predictions.
He also plays down the risk of investing (in equities and fixed income) relative to the risks of owning real estate. I find this a bit self serving given that he's a financial adviser.
That said the actual investment advice and allocations he has offered up on his blog are very sound for an investor with a medium to long time horizon.
"I find this a bit self serving given that he's a financial adviser"
Well, you know what they say... caveat emptor and all that, haha.
Garth is an entertaining writer and seems to be able to read the pulse of the securities market. His ideas about real estate are somewhat jaded, however I agree with his concerns about many people lusting after real estate and not building a solid long term financial plans.
. . . . . . . . . .Total Yearly Sales (Percent Below Peak). . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . Greater Victoria - Single Family Homes. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (VREB). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1989. **********************************************************************
1986. ******************************************
1987. *****************************************************
1988. ********************************************************
1990. ************************************
1991. ***********************************************************
1992. ***************************************************
1993. ************************************
2002. **********************************
2003. ***********************************
2010. *************
2011. ***********
2012. *********
2013. **********
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . -70%. . . -60%. . . -50%. . .-40%. . .-30%. . . -20%. . . -10%. . . .0%
This chart includes the top ten years (of yearly SFH sales totals) for Greater Victoria as well as the last 4 years.
Yearly sales totals have been adjusted for population and compared to the peak year of 1989.
As of January 2014, single family home prices across Greater Victoria were 10.6% below peak (2010), based on MLS home price index data.
AL + TOH
They expect $500K+ when it is mostly done (3000+sft including basement), but without landscaping and some details inside.
Wow. So they've added 1000 square feet (a new main floor) and (?) finished ore refinished the basement, and it will cost $500K, or $250 per foot for the additional 2000 square feet of space (assuming the basement was not finished before).
Could they not have built new for the same money, in which case they'd likely have had a better house, with a higher resale value.
Their old house is valued at about $750K and I think they could buy a nice house with $1.2M or $1.3M. But they like their location and couldn't find anything they like nearby, new or renovated. Plus they (probably the wife) thought that they could get exactly they like with only $300K, until the work started and the labour bills piled up, too late to pull out now, other than reduce the change she wanted inside.
Interesting grqaph Info
That our months of inventory and sales to new listings ratio in the overall market have remained in the balanced areas of 5 to 7 MOI and 40 to 60% SNL% shows that despite an increasing population the "marketplace" for real estate is getting smaller.
As demand evaporates the marketplace becomes more concentrated in specific types of housing and locations. That's why you can find some good deals in real estate outside of the core areas and bidding wars in the city. There are just fewer prospective buyers to bid against you on a home in the country.
For example, you can now buy a house on waterfront up by Sidney for the price you'd pay for a 1960's home in Fernwood or Fairfield.
It's an opportunity for people to sell their high priced city properties and buy into a healthier lifestyle in the country away from inner city schools, prevalent drug use and greater levels of violent and property crimes.
This large disparity between city and country markets happens only in a transitional market.
Van has got TO’s 8.6% y-o-y gain beat.
Van’s average detached is now 1.361 Million! Up 11.4% y-o-y!
So the average house owner in Van this past year made $140K TAX FREE. That’s similar to making a 240K salary.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/vancouver-house-prices-hit-new-high/article17279408/
I have followed this blog for many years and always enjoy the information and comments. However, I have noticed a thread, thin though it might be, of sexist undertones in some of the comments.
Not all women, wives or otherwise, are driving imprudent financial decisions. It is wrong to presume so and offensive to say so.
Phil said...
And then there's Toronto... prices are up 8.6% from last February.
Shortage of new listings fuelling desperation among Toronto home buyers
-----------------
You may want to read Garth Turner's comments tonight regarding the "fudged" TREB numbers from Toronto and Ontario - just saying....
Agreed, Bitterbear. Let's keep it "clean".
Katyusha, Bitterbear:
Hear, hear! It's a tired trope, not helpful, let's move past it.
In other news, what does this group think of 44 Camden in View Royal? Recently had its second price drop I believe, now much closer to BCAssessment at 295k. It's maybe the cheapest SFD in the region, but it's been languishing for months... just not much of a market for cabins these days I guess?
"44 Camden in View Royal" is being sold as a lot. a 500sf nasty "cabin" does not count as a SFD ;-) Looks like it might be a decent lot though? Probably worth a look to see...
Al + TOH - - your friends must be paying premium prices for their basement reno. Here are some common cost estimates for that type of job:
Design $7,000
Permits - very rough guess and includes related work $10,000
House Lift - Nichol Brothers $15,000
Excavation and trucking and dumping $20,000
Foundation - 60cubic metres @ $600per (labour and materials) $36,000
Total Floor slab cost $10,000
Carpenter work by to re-build walls etc 6 weeks at $1000 per day $30,000
Electrical $5,000
Plumbing $5,000
Lumber $12,000
Hardy Plank for exterior $10,000
Doors and Windows $10,000
Insulation $5,000
Drywall $7,500
Carpenters for trim work - 4 days $4,000
Painting $4,000
Kitchen $25,000
Flooring - 1000sq ft at $12 per ft $12,000
Total cost $227,500
"Not all women, wives or otherwise, are driving imprudent financial decisions."
There is in fact some evidence showing that single women are on average better investors than single men of similar demographics.
I concur with LeoM. Something is funny with those numbers. Maybe the owners are making lots of changes? The builder is making lot's of markup I suspect....
@dasmo 9:06
Well I guess it in that case it's a fairly expensive lot. Tough to build on as it's a corner lot and fairly small.
Al + TOH - - However...
Some people hire a general contractor who arranges 100% of every aspect of every task, hires the trades, pays the trades, and then the general contractor doubles every expense. For example, if the general contractor hires a plumber for the job and pays the plumber $5,000 for his labour and materials, he (the general contractor) will then bill the home-owners $10,000 for the plumbing job.
despite an increasing population the "marketplace" for real estate is getting smaller.
Perhaps, but that graph is only for SFHs. That is certainly getting smaller. Is the overall market smaller if you factor in condos?
Someone mentioned Garth in the last update here, and I'm now curious about what the consensus is on him in this forum?
My two minute opinion on Garth -> http://youtu.be/peocfNZJm8k
Regarding the Farfield renovation $500k is nothing crazy if you deviate from normal. There are at least 6-7 different places where you can spend $10,000-$20,000 or more upgrading from the norm.
I am personally building a house right now as in the engineer just stamped my plans and it seems for everything you can spend 4-5x without trying too hard.
For example, you can go Milgard windows or you can go 5x for Pella. No difference in efficiency.
You can spend 3-4k on a custom 75'' ensuite vanity or you can just wait till costco has a sale and get it for half price, great quality too. http://www.costco.ca/vanities.html
etc, etc.
For example, if the general contractor hires a plumber for the job and pays the plumber $5,000 for his labour and materials, he (the general contractor) will then bill the home-owners $10,000 for the plumbing job.
Always get a fixed quote from a contractor whether it is a fixed quote for the entire job or a fixed quote to manage the job.
@ AL + TOH
"They expect $500K+ when it is mostly done (3000+sft including basement)."
$500K is a lot amount of money. Are they using a general contractor?
We have just completed a renovation of a 4 bed house and a 2 bed cottage for about $250,000 - all new electrical, plumbing, windows, 2 x kitchens (one custom), 4 x bathrooms, 3 new decks, sunroom addition, flooring, trim, paint, insulation.
No contractor - we hired our own trades to do most of the work; electrical, plumbing, structural, carpentry. We also arranged the permits and dealt with the building inspectors ourselves, whom we found very helpful. Contrary to what some people think, they are not there to make your life difficult, but to make sure things are being done correctly (by the trades) and to code.
We also did a lot of the easier work, like painting, refinishing of floors and some of the finishing carpentry ourselves - plus design. There is a $100 program you can download, and it’s easy to use. We also ordered the materials – there is a big mark up by the contractor on doing that too.
We did get a quote from a contractor for a small addition to the cottage - it was so expensive, we just shook our heads. Instead, we decided not to add on and redesigned the interior of the cottage to make it work – by moving a staircase.
We had a couple who rented our cottage for 4 months while they were renovating their home with a contractor. A small addition and a new kitchen/bathroom inside an older home. The reno should have taken only the 4 months, but they are still not finished ten months later and have, apparently, gone way over what the contractor originally quoted (by the $100K's). I feel sorry for them, as we both feel they have been taken for a ride.
You have to wonder what kind of mark-up contractors are adding. If you are in a position to hire the trades yourselves, there can be a big savings. We work from home, so it was easier for us. We found that most people we hired were great. There was the odd one who wasn’t so good, but then there are also contractors out there who are great and some that are not so great either – however, they cost a lot more!
Marko said...
My two minute opinion on Garth -> http://youtu.be/peocfNZJm8k
--------
Marko, wow 55 views and you are still upset because he banned you from his blog. Now maybe you will get 65 views....shameless self promotion
My experience with contractors is similar. A bit of a mine field. Lots are good and lots are bad. You either have lots of money to fix stuff or you manage things yourself. We hired a designer to do our bathroom befor the kid arrived. They marked the job up more than 100% and they showed up twice, did one bad sketch and stooped at Home Depot to pickup some tile samples. The plumbers did a good job as did the electrical. The carpenters and tilers might as well have been any joe off the street. Could not even follow the instructions on a tube of caulk... Needless to say I didn't go that route again with the kitchen. Good trades all around and a great deal on countertops saved me at least 15k or more.... And the Reno only cost me 6k including appliances and paint etc... A designer or contractor would just see kitchen Reno and say 15k...
still upset because he banned you from his blog
I guess we can add "thin-skinned" to the evaluation of Garth.
I've posted several times on his blog. Two of my posts pointed out that interest rate predictions he's made haven't exactly panned out. Deleted!
A young man in his nonage.
If Mr. Turner were a member of your organization this might be considered unprofessional conduct. He certainly would lodge a complaint with the board.
Would you do this to anyone at Fair Realty? Would you "out" another agent's credibility if some of their predictions had yet to occur?
It's just not a cool thing to do.
Poor Marko, you sounded so
amateurish...As you said Garth Turner is an icon, he cares about people while you only about your pocket. He is against slavery and that should mean something even to you. I try to have some respect for you when I see some genuine answers but that doesn't last long because you are arrogant most of the time.
"Marko, wow 55 views and you are still upset because he banned you from his blog. Now maybe you will get 65 views....shameless self promotion"
Don't count my view - I watched for about 3 seconds...
As you said Garth Turner is an icon, he cares about people while you only about your pocket.
Yes, of course. I am sure if you call up Garth Turner the financial advisor his services to invest your cash are free?
Want Garth to do a seminar, free too?
And he gives out books for free?
Would you do this to anyone at Fair Realty? Would you "out" another agent's credibility if some of their predictions had yet to occur?
Would anyone at Fair Realty blog about REALTORS® and Real Estate board the same way Mr. Turner does? I don't think so.
Looks like a touched a soft spot with Garth fans. I purely brought up a prediction he made on his blog 5 years ago about the Victoria market. Plain and simple.
I respect the guy as a business person but the predictions leave a bit to be desired.
I believe Marko that if you want to be relied on that at least your comments are backed with some "years" nay "decades" of experience.
I don't believe that any of us really believe that Garth Turner has all the answers but his blog does give options and room to make your own decision.
P.S. - He does give away free books, I have a couple would you like to borrow them?
Of anyone on the blog, Marko's prediction well over a year ago has turned out to be the most accurate.
I don't understand what "I respect the guy as a business person" means?
If Garth Turner does what you say - then shame on him too. Both as a person and as a "business person". I suppose the difference is that you can screw your fellow man from Monday to Friday and be saved as person on Sunday.
As for predictive powers being correct that's best left to the Gods of Mount Olympus who can see the future. Us mere mortals have to live with asymmetric information in a dynamic environment.
I think that if you are going to critic past predictions you should also acknowledge the changes in our politcial, social and economical environment that have occurred in the interim. Otherwise you're just sniping at someone behind the cover of hindsite.
You're a better person than that.
Of anyone on the blog, Marko's prediction well over a year ago has turned out to be the most accurate.
Please provide a list of all predictions and their results....
@Just Jack
Us mere mortals have to live with asymmetric information in a dynamic environment.
That is a wonderful piece of wordsmithing! There has been so much political and financial tinkering over the past few years ... some are thinking that the death of money is nigh.
Please provide a list of all predictions and their results....
This was posted in the comments on Leo's first post of the year. Copied here for your convenience.
Marko's and dasmo's predictions were virtually identical and ended up being the closest i think.
Sales / 6 month Average / BoC Rate / Average MOI for 2013
Leo S 5800 / 565,000 / 1.00 / 10
Dave 5200 / 530,000 / 0.50 / 12
Dasmo 6000 / 580,000 / 1.00 / 9
a simple man 5150 / 535,000 / 1.00 / 11.25
marko 5950 / 580,000 / 1.00 / 9
caveat emptor 5400 / 556,000 /1.00 / 10.5
koozdra 5000 / 500,000 / 3.00 / 12
CMHC SALE
Sometimes a property under a court order to sell does not sell or the offers are unacceptably too low. Then CMHC will pay out the bank and take ownership of the property and sell it. There is no court date and you treat the transaction like a regular offer to purchase.
The theory is that CMHC will get a better price without the stigma of a foreclosure on the property. That prospective buyers will behave nicely and not low ball offers.
But not always...
Canadians are generally nice people. They're not ones to kick someone when they're down. But we HATE institutions. And CMHC is one of our hated foes.
So when I find a property owned by CMHC, I don't give a damn about being "nice". I won't be hurting any person - just a goliath institution that would think nothing of crushing my existence for a few bucks. I have more feelings for telemarketers than CMHC. CMHC is the stuff I wipe off the bottom of my boots after gardening.
And I'm not alone.
An 8 year old home along Blueberry Lane. Purchased from the developer in 2006 for $360,000 plus GST. The property went into foreclosure at $423,500 in July 2012. Did not sale after being listed for 186 days and one price drop to $385,000.
CMHC buys it for $345,000 a year ago and choses to resell the home in December (WTF????) at an asking price of $360,000.
99 days later they squeeze a buyer out of $332,000. $55,000 under assessed value. And this is considered a success by CMHC standards.
All that CMHC is missing is the face make up, a red rubber nose and big floppy feet.
Caveat...
I was actually hoping for a pricing prediction that was meaningful - not 6 month average. I think looking at averages is a waste of time. all the other predictions are just indicators. After all, it's all about price.
...and this blog is peppered with predictions. You cherry-picked one.
@Just Jack
MLS #330833 looks like a pretty good deal for $332K.
@ Just Jack
I didn't realise CMHC did this! How do you find out if a house is being sold by CMHC?
"I was actually hoping for a pricing prediction that was meaningful - not 6 month average."
What would be meaningful - want to know what a specific house will sell for in ten years? That would be meaningful - also impossible
Leo set up the prediction format. I looked back at the prediction thread and gathered all the predictions that conformed to those guidelines. Other folks offered a range of different predictions, often not in a form that was simple to verify. You can look back at the prediction thread if you are interested.
That Marko and dasmo's predictions came closest is a verifiable fact.
Obviously it would be a mistake to conclude based on a sample size of one that Marko and dasmo are brilliant RE forecasters.
I don't think that was really the point of the little guessing game. I treated it as a diversion.
Personally what I look for in forecasts is a forecaster history of being right on more than one occasion, sound reasons underlying the forecast and a statement of uncertainties...
@S-J
Unless the selling realtor divulges it or the buying realtor finds out somehow - it may be hard to find out!
The CHMC does all they can to prevent a potential purchaser from finding out that the the property has been foreclosed upon: CMHC seeking to hide foreclosure information from home buyers
Most are not going to be advertised as a CMHC sale. You are going to need the service of a real estate agent - like Marko to mine through the data.
First clue is that the home is vacant.
I believe CMHC pays the selling agent an above average commission on these deals. But the listing agent has his/her commission reduced.
So right from the begining you've got a disgruntled listing agent who feels he/she is being under paid. But they can't make the deal. The listing agent is reporting back to CMHC who keeps saying they want more money.
Might be in your interest to get the property inspected and estimate any costs for repairs. Then turn that information over to an appraiser to value the home subject to all of those repairs. You might be able to use both the property inspection and the appraisal as evidence to CMHC to get a lower price.
You're dealing with a CMHC bureacrat that knows very little about value in the neighborhood. An overworked and under paid minion who has a hundred of these properties to deal with. They just need an excuse to let it go at that price.
I was actually hoping for a pricing prediction that was meaningful - not 6 month average. I think looking at averages is a waste of time. all the other predictions are just indicators. After all, it's all about price.
So you don't like a prediction based on price, but it is all about price? Makes sense.
So what should we be predicting in your opinion?
Could anyone recommend a firm to conduct a pre-purchase house inspection, please? I am looking for something well-beyond cursory and I understand that may cost a little more.
Lee Ottewell from Crest Building Consultancy, 250-888-9182 a few years ago. He was very thorough - so thorough we ended up not buying the house. Warning: The house looked wonderfully updated to the untrained eye, but by the time he was done the file was so thick that we couldn't get an insurance company to cover the place (despite it having insurance at the time).
But he won't let you spend money on a stinker, that's for sure.
Russ Mccarthy from Barnes & Co. is really good. http://www.inspectionsvictoria.com/
Lee as mentioned above is also good.
I can see in my system whether it is a CMHC sale or not. I am not seeing any deals on foreclosures/CHMC sales whatsoever. If they do sell a bit below market value usually there is a really good reason like the septic system is blown or other various issues.
Last 6 times I've been to court with clients, 5 have been outbid. I would say twice the properties definitely went above market value as bidders did not exercise restraint.
Let me give you a perfect example. 2874 Sooke Road was listed for $349,900. The bank accepted an offer in the $320s. The inspection was poor and the buyers beat the bank down to $308,000. The court date was set and everyone was made aware of the $308,000 offer on the table (first offer is always made public). Multiple people showed up to court and the property sold for above asking price at $351,500.
@ DavidL and Just Jack
It looks like CMHC is positioning itself for a potential disaster in the housing market. If more and more houses fall into foreclosure, and are not selling for enough money to satisfy the banks, then I assume CMHC will be taking over all these properties to sell themselves? I guess they are concerned about getting the best price for each property, so best to hide this information from the public and discourage lowball offers. Ultimately, it is down to us taxpayers to cover any losses – not that we had any choice in the matter.
So, on the bright side, CMHC gets a better price from the new buyer of the foreclosed house. That new buyer could potentially be using CMHC to buy this property, which then puts more money into CMHC’s coffers (thus saving the taxpayer from a loss), and round and round we go!
JJ says that one clue to a listing being a possible foreclosure is they tend to be vacant. Well, it seems to me that there are more and more vacant homes being listed right now. I had never noticed this in past years.
In Quebec, it says that even though it doesn’t have to mention whether a house is a CMHC sale in the listing sheet, it does say “The broker has to give the information once anyone is interested in that property” So, my question to a realtor (Marko?) is: If we are out looking at a vacant property that we would like to make an offer on, are you allowed to say whether or not it is a CMHC sale, or would we have to wait until the offer is made to find out?
To be honest, if I did know it was a CMHC sale, I probably would make a lowball offer!
Could anyone get me the sale price for the place that just sold at 1519 Hillside Ave?
How much, if any, of a discount from market value can you realize on a foreclosure or CMHC sale is dependent on how many potential buyers there are for that particular property.
If the property is in Gordon Head, you'll likely pay full market value. If it is Sooke, you just might be the only bidder on the home. It also depends on the type, style, size and condition of the home. A half duplex in Langford is likely going to wither on the vine while the same home in Fairfield may get multiple bids.
Condition is very important too.
Which leads us back to the home inspector. I don't know of any that will give you written cost to cure the items that are not up to current building codes. Because that just opens them up to a lawsuit. The home inspector says $5,000 - it costs you $8,000. And then you expect the inspector to compensate you for the extra $3,000. A home inspector is not an insurance plan for you to draw on. They are there to point out deficiencies that could lead to costly repairs.
An appraiser has to come up with some reasonable costs to cure for properties. The costs are not to bring the home up to current building codes. They're costs to bring the home up to a condition consistent with other similar properties selling in the marketplace. And they have to be immediate costs that a prospective buyer would have to complete before living in the home. If the septic system has failed - that's an immediate cost. Same with broken windows or non working mechanics. Items that have a remaining life of more than 5 years are not immediate repairs. If the roof is mossed and curling that isn't an immediate repair and not deducted from market value.
If this were a mortgage appaisal that would be the end of the valuation. The owners get the money to fix the home.
However, in a foreclosure the property is to be sold "as is", A term that has to be defined everytime it's used because "as is" can be interpreted several ways.
That usually means the appraiser has to calculate a profit incentive for people to take on the job of repairs and compensation for the inconvience.
For a typical home that would cost $300,000 to build today. The contributory value of the roof may be 4% of the total or roughly $12,000. To this you would have to add in a contingency for cost over runs and profit of say another 50% or $6,000. That makes a total deduction of $18,000 from the hypothetical value of the property as though repaired.
For legal reasons, the appraiser can't state the costs to repair as $18,000. Because the appraiser is not a contractor or tradesman that does this for a living. The appraiser can only state that the appraised value is subject to the costs of repairs not exceeding $18,000 in order to bring the property up to a condition consistent with other properties currently selling in the marketplace.
So why does it seem that properties under foreclosure sell below market value? Mostly because a prospective purchaser for a foreclosure has a much longer list of what they think are immediate repairs. There is no disclosure statement stating that the septic system is in working condition or that the home has never been used as a drug operation, etc. Having a lot more uncertainities in buying a vacant home, most buyers will tend to be conservative in the bidding.
But not always. You can see this at Kilshasw and Lunds auctions. When two people are bidding against each other they do crazy things when caught up in the emotion of buying.
Thanks everyone for the info and suggestion. I think they are using a general contractor who has done major reno work on other houses in their street. They pay him every two weeks ($10K labour + materials), but probably not on a fixed quote, and it seems the contractor charges the labour fee on days when no one is at site. So they are taking for a ride for sure, good thing is that they could afford it.
If the costs get too expensive. They may need to increase their mortgage. An appraiser hired by the bank may conclude that the property is worth less than what they have spent to date. The bank would therefore not be able to advance more funds and the home owners would be left with an unfinished house with building liens.
Spend as much on the house that you want - just don't expect the bank to bail you out.
An independent and unbiased valuation of the home as though all the work has been completed might help these home owners to stay on track with their costs. Because at some point they might have to fire their contractor when they are paying 10K a week and no work is being done.
Every 2 weeks
So what should we be predicting in your opinion?
Teranet, HPI and median are all a head and shoulders better than average...but I thought that was obvious.
Teranet, HPI and median are all a head and shoulders better than average...but I thought that was obvious.
We did predict on Teranet. Not everyone put in a prediction though.
HPI didn't exist last year.
Monthly medians are useless. But that should be obvious. So what median would you use? There is no such thing as a 6 month median because the VREB doesn't publish it.
Let's get back to where this discussion started....Garth and predictions and Marko's "chip on his shoulder" about Garth. Phil tried to back him up on that by citing an instance where Marko had some decent predictions.
All's I is sayin' is that
1)there have been many predictions on this blog over the years and we could likely find as many good ones as bad randomly distributed. Picking one instance is cherry picking.
2)this particular instance didn't even include a valid price measure (6 month average).
Sorry if I hurt your feelings Leo as I guess you initiated this prediction contest but averages suck. You could use smoothed medians if you don't want to use teranet which has been around for years.
How should you pay contractors?
One way is through a series of progress draws with a 10 percent holdback until the work is finished to your satisfaction.
You might advance some of the funds once the foundation is in.
Then again once framing is completed and the exterior protected.
Then after the drywall installed.
And then at completion holding back 10 percent until all the little things that went wrong are fixed.
>> averages suck. You could use smoothed medians
Please demonstrate how the 6 month average is worse (I.e. Less reflective of the market) than a 6 month smoothed median.
All things considered the median is superior to the average by being less influenced by outliers, but the 6 month average is not the same as the average of 6 monthly medians. The 6 month average is the average of 6 months worth of sales, and that will be superior than averaging the monthly means.
>> if you don't want to use teranet which has been around for years.
Again, we did use it
The couple who rented our cottage for their 4 month renovation told us that they were paying the contractor by the hour, instead of a getting a price for the whole job. They also hired an architect to work with the contractor to help the renovation go more smoothly. Neither has worked for them. 10 months later, they are still not finished. There is also uncertainty on the owner’s part as to how many hours they are actually putting in, as they do not visit the site every day.
We also paid our trades by the hour, but we were on site and were able to keep track of the hours they worked.
I think if I was going to choose the route of using a contractor, I would opt for getting a firm price for the whole job - just make sure you don't keep asking for changes. I have a feeling that contractors add on quite a bit when clients change their minds.
However, as Just Jack said, keep a 10% holdback until the work has been done to your satisfaction. It’s easier to get them to come back to fix something if you still owe them money.
They also hired an architect to work with the contractor to help the renovation go more smoothly.
The minute you go architect you are going to spend a ton of $$$.
I just had my home plans design by a very good designer for $0.80 a foot. I had a quote from one architect at $3.00 a foot and one guy said $175/hour during the consultation phase and $120/hour for drafting.
The other problem you get with architects is sometimes they design very expensive features.
Finally, when trades people look at drawings to give you quotes and they see some fancy architect name on the plans trust me it is in the back of their head.
If you’re renting here’s a way to save $300 a month until you can afford a house.
http://www.vicnews.com/business/249027781.html
Hey all,
I'm contemplating buying a vacant acreage and moving a Nickel Bros "recycled house" on to the lot. Anyone have experience with this? Pros and cons?
Thanks!
@Marko
I just had my home plans design by a very good designer for $0.80 a foot.
That's an amazing rate. Can you give the name?
David:
More CMHC boondoggling.... thanks for the link.
That's an amazing rate. Can you give the name?
http://www.mcneildesigns.bc.ca/
It can be a bit more if you make a million revisions and don't know what you want to start.
Re: mcneildesigns.bc.ca/
Thanks, Marko
Re: mcneildesigns.bc.ca/
Thanks, Marko
I'm not sure if their website extrudes "The sign of fine design" as advertised but one can certainly see where they are saving money!
Content and value takes priority over website :)
Could anyone get me the sale price for the place that just sold at 1519 Hillside Ave?
$248,000.
In January of 1991 it went for $142,000. If you factor in the leaky condo remediation and commission costs on the sale pretty much even over 23 years.
Thanks Marko. That is brutal. Not so much for them since I'm sure it was paid off but surprising how much values in that place came down. Nice units but just too much competition with newer fancier builds.
Monday, March 10, 2014 8:30am
MTD March
2014 2013
Net Unconditional Sales: 132 483
New Listings: 361 1,231
Active Listings: 3,826 4,333
Please Note
Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year
I went to Mt. Washington this weekend and holy shit there is a lot of "land for sale"! I saw Sold sings on the one in Langford but that's it.
Hehe. Sold sings is for Introvert...
What happens when prospective purchasers consider that real estate will no longer appreciate?
This happens from time to time in real estate. Events like the leaky condo syndrome in the mid 1990's devastated condo prices in the city. Urea Formaldehyde Insulation in the 80's did the same thing.
And today we have leasehold townhomes and condominiums. Lenders cut back the amortization period of the mortgage depending on the remaining lease term. If there is 30 years left in the land lease then the bank will only amortize the loan for 25 years. Buy one today with 30 years left and try to sell in 10 years and the bank would only finance the next buyer for 15 years.
Not a chance in hell that these leasehold properties will ever appreciate again. They are just like used cars.
And that's what is happening in the Songhees First Nation's lands along Admirals Road. Thousand square foot townhomes for as little as $90,000. Make it a strata titled property or sign a new 65 year lease and up the value goes up to $180,000.
With these townhomes selling at 90 times there monthly rent - so much for the fiction of fundamental value with investors snapping these properties up and creating a price bottom. Half of the value of homes is only there due to the anticipation of appreciation.
I went to Mt. Washington this weekend
Me too. I was struck by the number of places for sale. Had to check MLS when I came home. 75 places for sale (probably more because I saw a couple of signs for private sales) ranging from 105,000 to 1 million plus. In the building I stayed in apparently units are selling for similar to what they sold for new 20 years ago.
But more importantly - great day skiing on Sunday!
>> I was struck by the number of places for sale.
Could be partly due to the miserable season.
"Could be partly due to the miserable season."
There was already plenty for sale last couple of years, but I'd agree that the current season has made it worse. Closed resort is a real blow for someone counting on rental income from their property.
Interestingly the mountain itself is also for sale. The crappy season can't have helped that process either!
I wonder how viable an investment it is for the long term? It won't take a lot of climate warming for most of the precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow.
G&M article -
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/why-the-doomsayers-are-wrong-about-canadas-housing-market/article17446985/
The main argument of the article is that estimated price/rent used to support the case for RE overvaluation is based on invalid rent statistics, yet it does not present one example of price/rent for an actual property.
"yet it does not present one example of price/rent for an actual property."
kind of like this blog - I have yet to hear what the current price:rent ratio in Victoria is, or the price:rent ratio that we are supposed to mean revert to
"Mr. Dunning, who has his own housing research business and is chief economist of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, which represents mortgage brokers."
Bias much?
"Mr. Dunning is at the bullish end of the spectrum. He goes on to suggest that house prices are “justified based on record low levels of interest rates," and might even be under-valued."
Jump in while interest is cheap and housing is under-valued!
Contact a mortgage broker in your area for the best rate, I have a mortgage broker directory on my website you can use. Easy right?
Feature Request: I love this blog but can we upgrade from the 1999 version?
At least allow better formatting. There is only so much we can do with <b>, <i>, <a>
Maybe even some mobile support?
@seth
agree that quoting will dunning does not lend credibility to the article
"yet it does not present one example of price/rent for an actual property."
kind of like this blog
Actually price/rent for individual properties comes up on this blog quite frequently.
I'm not too concerned about statistical price/rent for a whole market, since you are buying a single property not the whole market, and the statistics themselves can be questionable.
Good news! Victoria had an up month on Teranet.
Index Period Feb 2014
Index Level 134.70 ©
% change y/y -3.43%
% change m/m 0.91%
Year to date 0.58%
When was the index last up y/y? In 2011 perhaps?
When was the index last up y/y?
Jan and Feb 2013, two isolated months in late 2011 and nearly all of 2010
Re: Price to rent ratios
I can help here, for condos at least. Last year I lived in a high rise near the market on yates. I rented there for around 6 years when I got a handwritten letter from the nice old lady who owned the place.
She wasn't getting any younger and was looking to cash in on the condo. Because I'd been 'such a good tenant' they wanted to offer me first refusal on it at 350,000$. My rent at the time was 1100/month inclusive of everything except hydro. The condo was assessed for 2012 at 310k ish. Strata fees of 350$ (high rise with 2 elevators and full time building managers), property taxes of 150$ and unconfirmed but I believe there were fees for the parking spot and storage locker.
I wrote back and thanked them for the offer but told them buying wasn't in the cards for me. So it listed, and after consulting with a realtor they put it up for 280k (too bad I didn't snap it up for 70k more). Showings began to happen and I decided to jump the gun and move. After moving the price dropped to 270k then 260k and sold for 255k after being vacant for 2 months. The assessment dropped to 255k this year.
The new place is in a one year old building north end of town. Bought for 320k ish I believe and assessed just under that. Asking rent was 1500$ but dropped to 1350$ shortly before I moved in. 2 bed 2 bath, 700sq ft strata fees 200ish.
Those are the two price to rent rations I know. I'm early 30s, could buy (even a similar unit in this building) but enjoying carefree condo living, and don't mind picking up and moving when I have to or when it suits me.
Here is the Rent vs Buy Spreadsheet posted on Garth's blog yesterday. I've converted it to a Google Sheet and shared it out on Drive.
Rent VS Buy Spreadsheet
Here is one I created for calculating "Your housing budget".
Your housing budget
@Axis - Just like Mrs. Farnickel in this south park clip. Swap out the bank teller for her real estate agent.
"And it's gone".
The Vancouver and Calgary housing markets are on fire...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/vancouver-calgary-home-prices-set-records-in-east-west-canadian-divide/article17450429/
It was only a matter of time before our nearby metros pulled us out of our rut.
axis:
do you mind share the location of where you rent? we are looking for a 2bed 2 bath to rent~~
Those are the two price to rent rations I know.
I am a landlord to a $200,000 place that rents for $1,175 and I am a tenant in a $350,000 place that I rent for $1,350.
On the lower end the ratios are way different than on the higher end.
I have a client renting out a $440,000 home for $2,400 but good luck getting $4,800/month for a $880,000 house.
It was only a matter of time before our nearby metros pulled us out of our rut.
Bwahaha.., because local real estate is dictated by the Vancouver market. Good one. The article stats that Victoria has been heading in the opposite direction for the past 12 months.
From the article
"Price increases are still outpacing income gains by a wide margin in many markets, a situation we deem unsustainable in the longer run," economic analyst Sonny Scarfone of Toronto-Dominion Bank said of the Teranet-National report.
Totally unsustainable. People can't afford the homes they are buying. It's all about cheap credit and keeping up with the joneses.
To me, income gains are galloping ahead. One province is showing earnings were 4.6 per cent higher from a year earlier. Calgary income gains are likely closer to 6%.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/weekly-wages-hit-10-month-high-alberta-leads-growth/article17133611/
I only point Calgary since this island always ends up being a big draw for them. Now that their prices are shooting so much higher than ours, I'm quite certain that will begin to lift our prices again.
@Tren I'm in the Brix on Borden right now. Lived downtown for a while but work on the peninsula and wanted a shorter commute.
When I was searching last summer/fall there were a number of 900sqft 2 bedrooms in those condos south of metrotown, 1300-1500/mth. Problem being I think that your view is a car dealership, McDonalds, or Metrotown.
Some friends live in the condos on West Saanich just north of Quadra and like it there too.
@Seth Perry, that's the bugged version of the spreadsheet. Set your cash on hand to $100K and the monthly payment drops to 0. He fixed the error in v3: http://www.beachboy.ca/greaterfool/
Of course, there's a rent/buy spreadsheet on the front page of this site too. :)
@yogurt - Thanks. I"m pretty sure I had v3 but I"ve reuploaded. Seems there is 1 bug with the conversion but at least the main calculations work. Here is the updated link:
Buy vs Rent v3
March is the investment time and investing money in real estate is a best. Prices are going lower and sales are getting high.
Real Estate Property
Robert Planks said...
March is the investment time and investing money in real estate is a best. Prices are going lower and sales are getting high.
Real Estate Property
--------------------------------
Trolls......
"Trolls......" You mean Bots....
A little off topic, but is anyone hearing anything about this?
http://www.timescolonist.com/news/b-c/radiation-from-japan-found-in-b-c-may-raise-health-concerns-1.894306
Re: TC article on cesium in coastal waters.
More useful information is available here.
The amount of Cs134 anticipated in coastal waters according to the model referred to in the TC article (0.5 Bequerels per cubic meter) is far below the maximum permissible concentrations in drinking water, which for caesium-137, is 10,000 becquerels per cubic metre (Cs134 and Cs137 have similar radiation energies, 0.16 and 0.19 MeV, respectively).
By way of comparison, Tepco has reported groundwater Cs137 concentrations of 93 million Bq per cubic meter.
There is reasonable concern about accumulation of radionuclides in fish and other seafood, but the immediate hazard seems slight. According to a report in Science Mag, even around the coast of Japan, only bottom fish from areas immediately adjacent to Fukushima have more than the permitted concentration of radioactivity (I think 10 Bq per Kg).
@ Phil
"I only point Calgary since this island always ends up being a big draw for them."
Really? Do you have any factual evidence to support this?
Didn't think so.
"Now that their prices are shooting so much higher than ours..."
Interesting. Tell us, how much higher are house prices in Calgary than in Victoria?
"I'm quite certain that will begin to lift our prices again."
Do you have any evidence that supports your claim that rising house prices in Calgary have lifted house prices in Victoria at any time in the past?
Why would anyone from Calgary buy a condo in Victoria, for example, when it is possible to buy quality properties in warm US vacation destinations for a fraction of the cost?
This 2 bed, 2 bath condo in Clearwater, FL is valued at just under $100 K. This spacious unit boasts 1,010 sq. ft. of living space and was built in 2004.
A similar property in Victoria would probably be valued at $400 K or more. Victoria's weather is cold and wet 6 months of the year. Florida has beautiful weather year-round and the waters of the Gulf of Mexico are warm enough to swim in.
Sorry info... You are prone to misinformation yourself. That unit fronts onto a major highway and is nowhere near the ocean. It's in a terrible location. I can't even think of a condo building in a spot as bad as that in Victoria... Even this one is way nicer at 200k... http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=13953459
It's expensive here, yes, but 400k for a similar property is a gross exageration. This unit is obviously a distressed sale too...
... Plus officially Victoria's "cold season" is only three months not 6...
https://weatherspark.com/averages/27840/Victoria-British-Columbia-Canada
Came across this, thought it might interest some of you....
http://www.investingthesis.com/analysis-insights/correlation-of-mortgage-rates-with-real-housing-prices-how-increasing-inflation-could-affect-housing-prices/
It seems Victoria isn't so special after all...
MoneySense Magazine
Thanks @LeoM for the link. Those are some interesting stats.
Looking at the financial rankings,it's not pretty.
We ranked very low for average income @ $59,940. #172 out of #201. Only $33 from the bottom, ouch! (the lowest was $59,906.62 and highest $187,772.82)
We are at the bottom (#201), for Average discretionary income at $24,358.25 (highest was $95,295.63). More money, more problems right?
We ranked #29 for highest average house prices at $475,855 (Lowest was $91,263.00, highest was $1,639,337.00).
We ranked #6 for average years to buy a home at 7.94 (longest was 11.7 shortest was 1.41)
We ranked #84 for average household worth at $349,237.00 (highest was $2,729,123, lowest was $118,638.00).
It sure sounds like we spend a lot of money that we don't have. Perhaps that's why real estate is in a slow reverse here. Everyone is making that $24,358.25 / year stretch like home-made cookie dough.
I'd be interested to know where locals THINK they should be ranked.
I was surprised to see us so low - #76 overall. I was looking for us in the top 10 but we've been beaten by that sly dog St. Albert, Alberta, the REAL "Best Place on Earth".
It's also fair to say that Saanich ranked #14, so we sort of, kinda, almost made the top 10 by association.
Thanks Saanich, way to go bro. (High Fives).
Any guesses on why their average income is so much lower that Statcan's Victoria median of 79,350?
Maybe the albertans are buying up the island again??
Island Board unit sales were up 24% this Feb over last Feb and
Island ave sale price is up 10% from $314K to $345K since last Feb.
http://www.vireb.com/assets/uploads/02feb_14_vireb_stats_package_54531.pdf
Any guesses on why their average income is so much lower that Statcan's Victoria median of 79,350?
Moneysense ranks individual municipalities, while the Statcan figures are for CMA's (metro areas).
Victoria city has a low average household income simply because it has so many single income households.
Which is why the Moneysense rankings are virtually useless. Is the quality of life different on the Victoria side of the street versus the Saanich side?
@ dasmo
"Sorry info... You are prone to misinformation yourself."
A completely false accusation.
"That unit fronts onto a major highway"
There are hundreds of beautiful condos for sale in beautiful areas of Flordia that are available for a fraction of the cost of a Victoria condo.
The condo you found is located on Quadra Street in a high traffic area.
"and is nowhere near the ocean."
It is located within a 10 minute drive to beautiful Clearwater Beach where people can swim in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico 365 days a year.
The Quadra condo is within a 10 minute drive (approx.) to the nearest beach where the water is too cold to swim in, even in summer.
"Plus officially Victoria's "cold season" is only three months not 6..."
It isn't uncommon to see Victorians wearing winter coats, gloves and toques from November to March (5 months). There might be 4 months each year of weather warm enough to wear a T-shirt (all day) in Victoria. And the rain... enough said.
Victoria's weather doesn't compare (at all) to the weather in Florida. Florida has warm weather year-round.
"It's in a terrible location.
I can't even think of a condo building in a spot as bad as that in Victoria..."
There are hundreds of beautiful condos in beautiful areas of Florida that are available for a fraction of the cost of a Victoria condo.
"Even this one is way nicer at 200k..."
You failed to find an example of a comparable condo.
Criteria:
- minimum 1000 sq. ft.
- 5 to 10 years old
- minimum 2 bed, 2 bath
- within a short driving distance to the ocean
"It's expensive here, yes,"
Finally a true statement from you. Victoria's housing market is extremely overvalued.
"but 400k for a similar property is a gross exageration. This unit is obviously a distressed sale too..."
This unit is not a distressed sale. I excluded that from the search criteria.
More wrong information from you.
You forgot to add
Fronts directly on to a 6 lane highway
To your criteria... Can't find find a comparable in Victoria so I won't even try....
As I said, there are hundreds of condos for sale in beautiful areas is Florida that are available for a fraction of the cost of a comparable condo in Victoria.
When I have more time I will provide examples to substantiate this.
Re Info: "As I said, there are hundreds of condos for sale in beautiful areas is Florida that are available for a fraction of the cost of a comparable condo in Victoria.
When I have more time I will provide examples to substantiate this."
Have you been there yourself? If not, anyone can look on-line themselves, why should they listen to or believe you?
You really turned us off when you talked about Swiss housing market a while back. We were right there living in Zurich for 3 months, didn't see and hear anything like what you said. We consider ourselves as short term visitors, so didn't want to comment on something one wouldn't know for sure unless you live there for a few years. How can you make all the comments about far away places without even being there?
So it probably be better to save yourself time and effort (and possible embarrassment sometimes), and put them somewhere you have been and really know.
That would save others' reading time, too. So Thank you.
Buy US (Florida) if you like being taxed to death.
$ 15% capital gains tax
$ non-residents pay higher property taxes
$ if you rent it while not there you must file tax return plus pay 30% withholding tax
$ estate taxes when you die (from being taxed to death…haha)
Try lifting a paintbrush or hammer to fix something and receive hefty fines. Also have fun getting medical & hurricane insurance.
"Which is why the Moneysense rankings are virtually useless."
I'm going to be sceptical too when St Albert takes the gold and refinery row (aka Strathcona County) takes the bronze.
I genuinely liked Edmonton and area for the ten years I lived there, but ranking two suburbs of Edmonton as the best places to live in Canada seems questionable
Buy US (Florida) if you like being taxed to death. 15% capital gains tax
You get a foreign tax credit on this against your Canadian taxes. Canada has a capital gains tax too of course. You would pay just as much net tax on a Canadian property.
non-residents pay higher property taxes
That is true, but like any property tax it's deductible against rental income.
If you rent it while not there you must file tax return plus pay 30% withholding tax
True but so what? Just like your paycheque withholding is not the tax you actually pay.
estate taxes when you die (from being taxed to death…haha)
You (or rather your executor) must file a return but there are exemptions for those with a net worth not in the millions.
I'm not interested in being an absentee US landlord but your financial "reasons" against it are bogus.
That St. Albert made the top ten list might be spotting a new trend for Canadians. Since 2000 people have been leaving the rural areas of the province and moving to the cities.
Maybe the population pendulum is now starting to swing back to the country.
First you had the Beverly Hillbillies moving to the City and now you have the affluent moving to Green Acres.
If you grew up in Vancouver or Victoria you've seen these cities lose their charm. And now you might be at an age where you don't want to push through pan-handlers everyday, smell pot in the parks, have your car and house robbed. Or be constantly nickled and dimed by the city with excessive property taxes, utility fees, penalties and fines.
A couple of acres in the country with a few sheep to mow the lawn sounds pretty good.
Here you go info... Best I could get. It doesn't front directly onto a 6 lane highway though but at least it is somewhat close to a 4 lane....
http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=14109519
Criteria:
Check - minimum 1000 sq. ft.
Check - 5 to 10 years old
Check - minimum 2 bed, 2 bath
Check - within a short driving distance to the ocean
So let's just say the closest "comparable" is $289k. Again, we can't find a more exact one in Victoria because we don't have a 6 lane highway anywhere. Nor has any developer been crazy enough to build a condo ten feet away from such a major highway...
@SJ
You can add high HOA and maintenance fees to your list. Florida is especially prone to flood and termite activity.
@Caveat
I tend to agree. Moneysense must be putting their emphasis on ‘getting ahead in life‘ when they rate Alberta cities so high. It is true however they are in a class of their own when it comes to job creation and wage gains. House prices are set to soar there too.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/alberta-housing-market-set-to-surge-bmo/article17493280/
“Benchmark prices in Calgary are up a strong 9 per cent year-over-year”
MoneySense update:
Several bloggers have questioned the methodology that MoneySense used to determine the best and worst places in Canada to live. At the bottom of the data list is a link to their methodology. Here is the link:
MoneySense Methodology
Inflation or Deflation... or just Disinflation...???
Friday, March 21st - Release of the February 2014 Consumer Price Index numbers.
Consumer Price Index for February
CBC is already reporting that many economists are already predicting a significant percentage decline over last month.
CBC News Article
Interesting new phraseology recently where everyone is afraid of the word 'Deflation' so instead they say 'Disinflation'. I realise that Disinflation is a slowing of price increases — or a drop in the inflation rate; but we all know it's the first phase of deflation, but shhhh.. keep it to yourself...
@ al+toh
"That would save others' reading time, too."
You're quite free to skip past info's posts and save yourself some reading time but don't presume you speak for others.
If you read what I said before the sentence you quoted, I didn't suggest that Info stops posting, but only not to make "expert-like" comments for faraway places that she has never been and knows little about.
But I did stop reading most of her posts if not all, and you could be right that I may be the only one doing so ;-).
@Just Jack
I grew up in St.Albert. It's definitely not the country, it's pure suburbia. Also on the whole, it's going to definitely be better than Edmonton in a ranking like this. The majority of the residents are affluent people who work in Edmonton, and far away from any of the more crime prone spots of Edmonton. It's actually a well laid out city in that residential areas are separate from major through-fares(so you don't have someone backing out of their driveway onto a major street or people parked on the side of a major road blocking a lane). Every street is tree-lined(except the highway), and has sidewalks on both sides of the road, and there is a community outdoor rink 15 minute walk from pretty well any house.
Ha ha - no, you're not the only one. I always skip over Info's posts as well.
Monday, March 17, 2014 8:00am
MTD March
2014 2013
Net Unconditional Sales: 259 483
New Listings: 664 1,231
Active Listings: 3,927 4,333
Please Note
Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year
Thanks Soperj, St. Albert is suburbia. Sorry if you took offense for me suggesting that your home town is
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqWxxmuyCqs&feature=player_detailpage
O/T warning:
There was a question a few days back re radiation from Fukushima.
BC center for Disease control had some fish analyzed and concluded no issue
Health Canada's radiation monitoring - here
Also -
According to a Fukushima report by the IAEA, “…initial levels of concentrations in the sea area have dropped significantly since 2011 and are found near the plant outside the port to be around 1 Bq/L for Cs-137. The levels further off-shore between 2 and 20 kilometers away are now mostly below 0.1 Bq/L, and beyond this region, the levels are almost near those prior to the accident of 0.001–0.003 Bq/L for Cs-137. The decrease of activity concentration in seawater is also reflected in the levels in biota and seafood.” The report can be found here: http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/fukushima/missionreport041213.pdf
@ caveat emptor
Yes, it probably isn't a big a deal as some make it out to be...but I can't help but ask "for an organization that can't get the date right on their report, how accurate are the details in their radiation study be?"...;)
@ dasmo
"Criteria:
Check - minimum 1000 sq. ft.
Check - 5 to 10 years old
Check - minimum 2 bed, 2 bath
Check - within a short driving distance to the ocean
So let's just say the closest "comparable" is $289k. Again, we can't find a more exact one in Victoria because we don't have a 6 lane highway anywhere. Nor has any developer been crazy enough to build a condo ten feet away from such a major highway..."
As I said, there are hundreds of condos for sale in Florida for a fraction of the cost of a comparable Victoria condo.
Again, Victoria's weather cannot be compared to Florida's. It is not uncommon to see Victorians wearing winter jackets, toques and gloves from November to March. Ocean activities are extremely limited in this weather. In summer, the ocean is too cold to swim in.
On the other hand, Florida's weather is warm and sunny year-round. Florida's beaches are world-class and the water is warm, allowing all types of beach/ocean activities to be enjoyed year-round.
The Victoria condo you found has 2 beds, 2 baths, 1039 sq. ft. and was built in 2007. It is listed at $290 K.
This West Palm Beach, Florida condo has 2 beds, 2 baths, 1141 sq. ft. and was built in 2004. It's value is $74 K. It is located in a gated community that includes access to a beautiful pool, gym, playground, volleyball... Beautiful beaches are within a short driving distance. Again, it is possible to enjoy beach/ocean activites year-round in Florida as the ocean water is warm and the weather is sunny and warm.
The Victoria condo you found doesn't have a pool, isn't located in a gated community, etc. and is listed at $290 K. The Florida condo is valued at $74 K. The basic criteria (2 beds, 2 baths, min. 1000 sq. ft. etc.) are covered, but that's where the comparison ends.
Those Calgarians who are looking to buy a condo in another city (to escape the cold weather during the winter months) will, obviously, compare Victoria's weather (Nov. to March) to the year-round warm weather of Florida, California, Arizona, Texas, etc.
In comparison to the year-round warm weather of these US locations, Victoria's (winter) weather isn't an attractive feature.
Many Victorians spend time in Hawaii, Florida, Arizona, etc. during the winter months. It says a lot about Victoria's weather from Nov. to March.
Then there is the price difference. The Victoria condo ($290 K) is about 4 times as expensive as the Florida condo ($74 K).
I could find hundreds of other examples of Florida condos that are available for a fraction of the cost of a bubble-priced, "comparable" Victoria condo.
@ Spunky
"Ha ha - no, you're not the only one. I always skip over Info's posts as well."
You must not like the important, factual information that I present in my posts.
"Again, Victoria's weather cannot be compared to Florida's. It is not uncommon to see Victorians wearing winter jackets, toques and gloves from November to March. Ocean activities are extremely limited in this weather. In summer, the ocean is too cold to swim in."
Do you even live here?
Florida's nickname is the "Sunshine State", but severe weather is a common occurrence in the state. Central Florida is known as the lightning capital of the United States, as it experiences more lightning strikes than anywhere else in the country. [34] Florida has one of the highest average precipitation levels of any state, in large part because afternoon thunderstorms are common in much of the state from late spring until early autumn.
Florida leads the United States in tornadoes per area.
Hurricanes pose a severe threat during hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to November 30, although some storms have been known to form out of season. Florida is the most hurricane-prone state. From 1851 to 2006, Florida has been struck by 114 hurricanes, 37 of them major—category 3 and above.[38] It is rare for a hurricane season to pass without any impact in the state by at least a tropical storm.
In 2004, Florida was hit by a record four hurricanes.
Why haven't the American's figured out that Florida is the place to be?
Rainy Seattle has house prices nearly twice that of sunny Miami.
@ Al+TOH
"You really turned us off when you talked about Swiss housing market a while back. We were right there living in Zurich for 3 months, didn't see and hear anything like what you said."
What exactly did I say about the Swiss housing market?
Victoria's housing market has been in a sustained price downtrend since 2010.
Facts are facts.
There is a lot of denial on this site.
In Victoria, there has been 39 consecutive months of year over year (monthly) single family home index price declines dating back to December 2010 (chart coming soon).
House prices across the rest of Canada have increased since December 2010 in a stimulated environment of sustained emergency level interest rates.
What the heck is wrong with Victoria's housing market?
@ dasmo
As I said, Florida isn't the only state with beautiful weather year-round. California, Arizona, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Utah, Nevada, Louisiana etc.
Victoria's winter weather isn't comparable. Calgarians know this.
@ dasmo
"Again, Victoria's weather cannot be compared to Florida's. It is not uncommon to see Victorians wearing winter jackets, toques and gloves from November to March. Ocean activities are extremely limited in this weather. In summer, the ocean is too cold to swim in.
Do you even live here?"
Many Victorians complain about the cold weather from November to March. As I said, many Victorians vacation in Hawaii, Arizona, California, etc. during the winter months to enjoy warm weather.
The temperature of the ocean water around Victoria is too cold for most people to swim in, even during the summer months. Most Victorians would agree with that.
31 Ways It Really, Truly Sucks To Live In Florida In The Summer
1. No joke. It rains every frigging afternoon.
2. As a rule, you will encounter the very worst tropical downpour on the ONE DAMN DAY you didn’t bring a stupid umbrella.
3. Oh, you know all that rain? Guess who absolutely LOVES rain.
4. You know what else comes with all that rain? Lightning. Yay, we are the LIGHTNING STRIKE CAPITAL OF THE COUNTRY!
5. That little coast-to-coast heat wave everybody was bitching about? Yeah. That’s Florida from May through September. We have to hide until summer ends. We’re basically prisoners down here.
6. Of course, we’ve had air conditioning in Florida for a few years now, and it does help. But then you get the AC bill in August.
7. Every cloud that spins off the coast of Africa in the summer dreams of becoming a MONSTER HURRICANE, and they ALWAYS want to come directly to Florida.
8. So every time a storm is born we never catch a break.
9. That means all summer, you can NEVER really relax. At any time, your home state could be in a CONE OF DOOM.
10. When a storm is born, you become a severe weather junkie, waking up in the middle of the night to check the National Hurricane Center’s 3 a.m. advisory.
11. As the storm nears, weather guys on TV do the most creepy and frightening thing imaginable: They take off their jackets and roll up their sleeves. That means IT’S ON and the SHIT IS GETTING REAL UP IN HERE.
12. Or not. Sometimes we just don’t sleep for five days worrying and calling loved ones to say goodbye only to learn the storm fell apart overnight. And then we feel really happy again.
13. But just because there’s no storm doesn’t mean our Florida TV stations don’t spend all summer scaring the crap out of us anyway: WE LIVE IN PARADISE! PARADISE IS DEADLY!
14. News stations devote TONS of time to weather patterns far, far away. Because, you never know, IT COULD COME HERE ONE DAY REAL SOON AND KILL US ALL!
15. The never-ending fear in the summer makes us all a little crazy. You don’t WANT to be constantly TRACKING THE TROPICS, but you can’t quite stop, either. Because they’re right, we could be KILLED AT ANY TIME.
16. The closer a storm gets, the more a trip to the supermarket looks like this.
17. Because even though this happens every summer, people in Florida NEVER ACTUALLY MAKE THOSE STORM KITS THEY TELL US TO MAKE.
18. And by the way, when we call family up north in the middle of stormpocalypse preps, WHY DO YOU GUYS NEVER SEEM TO KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT THIS?
19. When there’s no storm, there’s just mind-bending heat and soul-crushing humidity. And rain. But at least the weather people smile when they tell us. There’s that.
20. But then, when the rain finally stops, we get this.
21. Whoever invented Florida summers clearly hated human beings. It makes us very sad.
22. People are always telling Floridians to “stay hydrated!” We know. But then when we DO make sure to drink water, you guys all BUST on us. WHY?
23. You’d think anyone who had to work a full-time job in Florida in summer would be allowed to go to work wearing this.
24. But no. We have to dress like we live in OHIO OR SOMETHING. And EVERY DAMN DAY we end up looking like this.
25. Of course, we’d much rather you think of the sun, not the fact that it’s so humid you want to kill yourself a lot.
26. Or, you know, that you could DIE AT ANY TIME.
27. When we moved here, we were only thinking about the winters. But then summer came.
28. Honestly? Humans were NEVER MEANT TO LIVE IN FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER. Even visiting for a week isn’t smart.
29. But we’re stuck here. We suffer. We sweat. We rage.
30. And we wait for winter. When the tables turn and suddenly living in Florida doesn’t seem so stupid.
31. And when you tell us about your record-breaking cold and your “blizzard,” we pretend not to know anything about it.
Why haven't the American's figured out that Florida is the place to be?
They have. Florida has been one of the fastest growing states for decades.
Rainy Seattle has house prices nearly twice that of sunny Miami.
Despite having slower population growth. Sort of like Victoria.
When you're concentrated on only one factor that influences value such as location (geographical) then you'll continue to be dumbstruck that Miami's prices are lower than Victoria and Victoria is lower than Fort McMurry.
Location is like gravity in physics. It's the force all of us easily recognize. But it isn't the only force nor the strongest of the forces.
The economy of a city is usually the best driver of prices. Vancouver being an exception where political policies, such as immigration, have been the strong force creating high prices in select neighborhoods.
Vancouver being the gateway to the Pacific has had segments of its real estate become an international reserve currency backed by luxury condominiums that are kept vacant and mortgage free. Being intentionally kept vacant means that these condominiums do nothing to alleviate the tight rental market. And while property taxes are paid on these empty suites. A suite occupied brings in more revenue to a city and its economy than a vacant one. The solution to Vancouver's problem is an annual investor tax on vacant condominiums.
High prices have also been sustained in select neighborhoods of Victoria not by immigration but by investor herding.
How much of Victoria's condo market is intentionally kept vacant is important information for the city council to know before allowing anymore new condo towers. Information that can be gotten from BC Hydro based on electrical usage.
When you're concentrated on only one factor that influences value such as location (geographical) then you'll continue to be dumbstruck that Miami's prices are lower than Victoria and Victoria is lower than Fort McMurry.
Exactly. Saying that Victoria shouldn't have higher prices than Podunk, Florida because Podunk has nicer weather ignores a host of other factors. Even weather comparisons are fraught because not everyone has the same preferences. I love our summers here, but some people think they are a cold, windy pathetic excuse for a season.
Despite having slower population growth. Sort of like Victoria.
How strongly does population growth even correlate with prices? I can see a strong correlation at the extremes of fast growth that overtakes ability to add to housing stock (Fort McMurray) or zero/negative growth (many small Prairie towns, Newfoundland outports, BC one industry towns etc.)
Florida is a nice place to vacation in the summer....see my post above
Victoria's sustained high SFH prices despite years of decline in turnover must be due in part to the increasing number of young adults living at home. Over 50% of Victoria's 20 - 29-year-olds are still at home, which means that many middle- to late middle-aged parents lack the freedom to retire to the country, move to sunny Florida or downsize to a condo.
So a strong economic recovery, unlikely though that is to occur, would allow many aging baby boomers to finally cash their RE chips, setting off Info's long-hoped for RE crash.
The monthly 'Deflation' numbers won't be released until Friday morning, but Poloz is already in panic mode trying to defuse the shock on investors and others with a pre-announcement.
CBC News Article
There are some nice luxury condominiums for sale these days and you'll be able to pick most of them up on the used market for less than 2006 prices.
Like on Sayward Hill in Saanich. Quality builder in a prestigious neighborhood with "millon dollar" views. At 1,774 finished square feet - this condo has a separate family room!
Constructed in 2001 this steel and concrete high rise was bought from the developer in 2001 at $300,000. Flipped in 2003 at $403,000. Flipped again in 2006 at $645,000.
And now after being marketed on and off for the last two years has sold at $550,000 or $310 per finished square foot.
@ Dasmo
I'll asume you are not trolling. Florida summer is not November to March when Canadians head south.
Nor do many go to *central* Florida. Florida Keys, DisneyWorld, etc aren't central. Really, that is what you came up with ?
You've set up a straw man - easy to knock down but not really relevant.
I'm typing this poolside @ 19C, peak 24C today.
Here : http://www.city-data.com/city/Aliso-Viejo-California.html
House prices 2014 up about 21%. Better buy last year :-) But still prices around Victoria median and the household income is more I think ?
"Estimated median household income in 2011: $94,558 (it was $76,409 in 2000)"
I saw that ferry sailings were cancelled due to stormy weather - not looking forward to that when I return :-(
I meant the winter...
In March 2010, the University of Florida published the results of a study done by Stanley Smith and Scott Cody titled “An Analysis of Annual Migration Flows in Florida, 1980-2008″. The study only counted people that moved from another state in the U.S. to Florida, or from Florida to another U.S. state, who’s movement could be verified through government records. Florida’s population did grow in every one of the years. The surprising thing was seeing how many people MOVE OUT of Florida to live in another state every year. Hundreds of thousands move out every year, and many millions have left “paradise” to move back to places such as New York, Pennsylvania and Iowa. More people have moved OUT of Florida over the last few decades, than the total population of MOST U.S. states today.
I'm a halibut, not a troll. Still ugly so I understand the confusion...
More people have moved OUT of Florida over the last few decades, than the total population of MOST U.S. states today.
The majority of US states have less than 5 million people. Florida is the 4th most populous state with almost 20 million.
5 million people over say 25 years is 200,000 people / year or 1% of Florida's population per year.
Over 50,000 people left BC in 2012, which is also about 1%. About 60,000 left Alberta, which is about 1.5%.
How much of Victoria's condo market is intentionally kept vacant is important information for the city council to know before allowing anymore new condo towers. Information that can be gotten from BC Hydro based on electrical usage.
Not many units, relatively speaking, are intentionally kept vacant in Victoria. I see a lot of Form Bs that disclose how many units are rented and some of the percentages are massive. For example, some newer buildings downtown are over 60% rented and many are over 50%. Then you have owner occupiers and then there are the ridiculously rich that keep a unit because they can even though they spend most of their time elsewhere. I wouldn't say their intention is to keep the units vacant they just can.
If it was a problem which it isn't in Victoria I think the correct solution would be taxes, not by punishing developers and the construction industry. Adding more red tape to development doesn't benefit many.
@ dasmo
As I said, it isn't uncommon for Victorians to wear winter jackets, toques and gloves from November to March.
Many Victorians vacation in Hawaii, California, Arizona, Florida, etc. during the winter months to escape the cold, wet Victoria winters.
Victoria, BC weather (temperatures in degrees Celsius)
Source: Environment Canada
December 2013:
Date___High___Low
3______ 3.9___ -0.9
4______ 2.8___ -5.4
5_____ -0.2___ -5.8
6_____ -1.3___ -4.7
7_____ -0.9___ -8.8
8_____ -0.4___ -8.1
9______ 1.3___ -2.3
10_____ 2.6___ -0.6
11_____ 4.3___ -0.6
12_____ 4.2___ -1.3
19_____ 2.9___ -1.6
20_____ 2.4____0.3
23_____ 6.1___ -0.9
24_____ 5.6___ -0.2
28_____ 6.5___ -0.8
29_____ 7.3___ -0.5
January 2014:
Date___High___Low
3_____ 8.1____ -0.7
4_____ 5.4____ -3.3
5_____ 5.3____ -1.8
6_____ 3.8____ -1.0
February 2014:
Date___High___Low
1_____ 4.9___ -0.8
2_____ 5.0___ -1.3
3_____ 3.7___ -0.4
4_____ 0.3___ -3.0
5____ -0.8___ -3.8
6____ -0.5___ -4.6
7_____ 0.8___ -5.8
8_____ 2.4___ -6.7
9_____ 2.6___ -2.5
21____ 6.3___ -0.5
22____ 2.6____ -1.0
23____ 1.4____ 0.1
24____ 1.0____ -0.3
25____ 6.1____ 0.0
Calgarians know that Victoria's winter weather is much colder than Florida's.
A Calgarian could buy this bubble-priced Victoria condo for $290 K and freeze on this Victoria beach from November to March.
or
The same Calgarian could buy this West Palm Beach, Florida condo for $74 K and have fun in the warm sun on this beautiful Florida beach from November to March.
There is absolutely no comparison and Calgarians know this. Calgarians will not be boosting Victoria house prices. Period.
This is the first year in my personal business that I've actually had a lot of people from Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario buying in Victoria. In the last 60 days alone I've had three out of province buyers buy condos in Victoria. Two permanently relocating to retire and one for a place to crash a few months of the year.
The winter out east definitely swayed one guy into buying out here sooner than he thought he would.
6-7 years of flat in Victoria while other markets have appreciated doesn't hurt either.
I talked to a person yesterday who has rented his Calgary home for 5 years while being a tenant here. Finally is pulling the trigger and selling in Calgary to buy here. Figures it is a good time to take advantage of the Calgary market.
Is it going to boost the market? Probably not, but certainly helps to keep things stable.
My numbers show March being better YOY as well in terms of sales.
Those are some nice beach pics info. The one you linked to is Gonzo. Have you even set foot on this beach? It's a nice place to stroll on a sunny January...
@info
Calgarians know that Victoria's winter weather is much colder than Florida's.
I don't understand your incessant need to cherry pick your data sets. Using the same data source as you, here are the missing "warmer" days from December that you neglected to include:
December 2013:
Date___High___Low
1______12.6___ 5.3
2______ 6.3___ 0.4
13_____ 7.3___ 3.8
14_____ 8.1___ 5.8
15_____11.4___ 5.3
16_____ 8.6___ 0.2
17_____ 7.3___ 0.0
18_____ 7.7___ 0.3
21_____ 4.5___ 1.7
22_____ 6.9___ 3.7
25_____ 5.9___-0.8
26_____ 7.6___-1.2
27_____11.6___-1.0
30_____ 7.5___ 4.6
31_____ 8.7___ 5.2
It paints quite a different picture ... As for Calgary, on December 7th while we shivered through -8.6 C temperatures at night - Calgarians were enjoying lows of -30.1 C.
Info, the latest place you link to in Florida is not a short drive to the ocean. It is however close to a 6 lane highway...
Well Flaherty is gone. Now some poor smuck is going to be tapped on the shoulder to lead Canada into its worst financial disaster as Finance Minister. The kiss of death that will end a political career and will forever have her or his portrait pasted to this debacle. Time for some minion to step up and take one for the team.
Harper is flipping through his MP cards looking for another Kim Campbell to take the fall.
Who will it be?
Joe Oliver, come on DOWN!!!
"It paints quite a different picture ... As for Calgary, on December 7th while we shivered through -8.6 C temperatures at night - Calgarians were enjoying lows of -30.1 C."
As someone who grew up in Alberta, I'd rather have -30 in Alberta than -10 here any day of the week. Maybe because dry air, maybe because the houses were built for winter, but -10 here sucks, and -30 in Alberta is fine.
When is it minus 10 here?
When it's raining just above the freezing level and windy - that is worse than both.
Just Jack said: "...be tapped on the shoulder to lead Canada into its worst financial disaster as Finance Minister....."
-------------------------------
Sad but true. The guy is 73 and has no leadership aspirations so what does he care. All that education behind him hew will now get his 15 minutes of fame flying the flaming economy straight into the side of a debt mountain.....so to speak.
Yearns back to the days in the U.S. of when Greenspan left Bernanke with about the same mess. Housing will fall but by how much is the unpredictable piece in this puzzle or disaster.
Calgary
Over the course of a year, the temperature typically varies from -13°C to 23°C and is rarely below -25°C or above 28°C.
The cold season lasts from November 19 to March 16 with an average daily high temperature below 2°C. The coldest day of the year is January 21, with an average low of -13°C and high of -3°C.
Victoria
Over the course of a year, the temperature typically varies from 2°C to 20°C and is rarely below -3°C or above 24°C.
The cold season lasts from November 22 to February 20 with an average daily high temperature below 8°C. The coldest day of the year is December 13, with an average low of 2°C and high of 5°C.
When is it minus 10 here?
According to Environment Canada an average of 0.4 times per year at the Airport versus an average of 71 days per year in Calgary. Calgary gets 4 days per year that drop below -30 (actual temp not windchill)
Calgary fails to rise above zero more than 60 days per year. That happens here twice. Calgary is also 50% windier than here. We get less precipitation than them in the months of May-Sept.
On the plus side Calgary averages nearly 15% more sunshine hours and gets a LOT less precipitation in the winter.
@Marko
When is it minus 10 here?
Ha, ha. There was that one time in February 1989 ...
I wonder what advance information shocked retiring Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz so much?
Poloz put out a pre-announcement before Friday's official release of the months 'deflation' numbers and Flaherty abruptly quits as Finance Minister.
The dollar is crumbling in an attempt to spur-on some inflation, but all it seems to have done, based on Poloz's pre-emptive announcement, was to add fuel to the deflation numbers.
Friday might be a very interesting day for politicians, economists, and Poloz. For everyone else, life will go on as usual because the economy is like a fully loaded oil tanker ship travelling at 30 knots, it takes a long time to slow down due to the momentum.
Victoria
Over the course of a year, the temperature typically varies from 2°C to 20°C and is rarely below -3°C or above 24°C.
The cold season lasts from November 22 to February 20 with an average daily high temperature below 8°C. The coldest day of the year is December 13, with an average low of 2°C and high of 5°C.
..almost Mediterranean-like...
;-)
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