Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Simple question

Should we talk politics during this election?
no free polls


Animal Spirit said...

No, don't do it. Will ruin the blog for six weeks as political troll after political troll invades.

HouseHuntVictoria said...

How else do I convince you all to vote Bloc then?

omc said...

Today will go down in history.... I can't come up with a witty name for it, but I have never seen so many price corrections. Maybe others can come up with a name for today.

jesse said...

@omc I think sellers are trying to rush to the head of the line to find the greater fools. The April greater fools, if you will.

a simple man said...

I think the greater fool pool is getting more and more shallow.

Leo S said...

Both genetically and depth wise. ;)

a simple man said...

I love the marketing of the house on St Anne that has been for sale since before christmas - it is the tiny one-bed up bungalow that was partially upgraded and flipped for a $300,000 increase in price form a year previous. Some would say optimistic, others gouging, looking for that greater fool to financially cripple.

Anyway, driving buy this morning I see that they are now represented by a new RE agency and there is a shiny new sign saying new listing. I know that it is a new listing for the agency, but the listing is as stale as Gramma's Christmas fruit cake come April fools day.

Note to sellers - you are still asking $200,000 too much - that is why it is not selling!

think said...

I can't believe how quiet my PCS is for sales considering it is the end of the month and spring! I am quite shocked - the trend seems to be that sales are slowing and if the trend continues it is going to shape up to a very interesting next few months!
I have been tracking active listings for Oak Bay/Fairfield over the last few years - on my PCS at the end of March 2010 there were 57 active listings, currently I have 66 now - so more listings compared to last year and incredibly low sales (way below last year) and the trend is SLOWING of sales not picking up - which is very atypical for this time of year! I've been a bit bored for the last year with everything being pretty flat and nothing happening but I smell a change in the air... I think the price drops are about to pick up speed!

a simple man said...

@ think - I am following the same areas and I completely agree. Listings seem to have picked up over the last two weeks somewhat, but sales are low, low.

Sales numbers tomorrow will start to give us a peek into what the future may hold, but this month will be tainted with those who rushed to get in before the rule changes.

April...that will be interesting.

Just Jack said...

Well spring has sprung. And as happens each spring, you will see properties that have been up for sale over the winter start to sell. And some sale's may be actually contrary to most bear's thinking.

Like a waterfront property in East Sooke. This property has been off and on the market since June of 2009. At one time listed at $1.3 million. But for the last year listed for $1,188,000. Now, you would think that after so long on the market, the sale price would be quite a bit lower than the asking. Nope, this week an accepted offer of just $88,000 under list.

Or a well kept basement entry home in Central Saanich listed at $549,900 but sells for over asking by another $10,000.

This is what happens each spring, prospective buyers shake off the winter blues and become motivated like Daffodils to enter the world.
If there is not enough inventory to satiate the buyers, prices should rise in the spring.

Generally, the spring market is the best market for the entire year. The strength and duration of the market is pivotal in how the market will fare for the rest of the year.

It can also be the best time a seller can get the maximum for their property.

omc said...

I will disagree with you there Just Jack, my impression is that the highest prices are in January to early March. There is very little inventory compared to buyers. Prices tend to rise due to the pressure, and if inertia keeps it going prices rise during the spring. I expect the opposite this year.

Just Jack said...

You're right OMC, that's what happened in 2009. Despite the fact that there were more sales in the second quarter versus the first quarter, the median price of homes in the urban core fell a few percentages.

Maybe its not just a matter of quantity but quality as well. Each spring the number of listings rises too. Victoria has a lot of sub standard housing that doesn't fit the typical family. Compare that to Surrey, where there are a lot more middle income homes that meet the typical home buyer and the previous spring market analogy would be more accurate.

So, in Victoria the first quarter has a lot of crap housing available and when a quality home comes on the market, you have a potential bidding war. In the next quarter there are more listings of homes that meet the typical family and prices settle down even with more sales occurring.

hmmmmm, things that make you go hmmmm.

Just Jack said...

Are prices starting to settle down in Fernwood?

Fresh sale today of a home on Belmont Avenue with a suite for $475,000.

Makes some of the previous high sales in the neighborhood on Forbes (515K), Haultain ($581K) and Fernwood road ($675K) look foolish.

So OMC, you're spot on, if these people just waited a month or two they might have saved themselves 10's of thousands. Or, I should say the bank that lent the money could have been more responsible to their shareholders or CMHC to the taxpayer.

omc said...

Prices have tended to trend downward through the selling season, so now is not the time to buy even if we are in a balanced market. The end of the summer usually shows some deals, and dependent on market, November and December could show some deals. If it is a sellers market Nov and Dec have high prices.

omc said...

I see Dave MacMillan is STILL trying to flog his own home for way too much. This guy never gives up! It has been on and off the market for years now. new mls #290916

Just Jack said...

So are people jockeying for position to get a better home in a better location while sales in the outlying districts fall off. Are only the big spenders left at the table in the urban areas spending their bubble bucks to get that "dream home"

They could be.

Like the house on Transit Road, just sold for $1,074,000

But previously sold
in May 2009 for $980,000 and
in August 2005 for $875,000

I am always amazed that people can accumulate so much wealth in their lives, with so little care of how they spend it.

The sellers dodged the bullet on this one. They better check their lottery tickets, this kind of luck comes in threes.

Just Jack said...

I don't know how much of a deal you could get in this market if your looking for a property that most other people are also searching for.

The deals are not going to be happening anytime soon in the urban core unless its a weird property.

But if you want a manufactured home in Shawnigan Lake its yours for $47,000 and $400 a month in pad rental.

But if you want property at a cheap price and don't mind shaving your head and playing the banjo score from "Deliverance" then Port Renfrew has a 259 square foot home on a half acre lot that's yours for $150K. But don't worry if your offer isn't accepted, since it appears that half of the town is up for sale today.

If you want to live in the core, but cheaply then there is always leased land in a First Nation's manufactured home park. For as little as $66,000 and $260 a month pad rental you could be a 10 minute commute to the downtown core.

Want a better address, but don't care about appreciation EVER. Then try a leasehold condominium in James Bay for $159,000 and $200 bucks a month. A 14th floor bachelor unit with 180 degree ocean views. Can be difficult to finance, as the property reverts back to the land owner in 2074. Because the next buyer will not get a 30 year mortgage on the property after the year 2040.

Or you can rent. There's lots of choices in lots of good locations. You could be living in a $700,000 house on St. Charles Street in Rockland starting tomorrow for $1,795 a month.

jesse said...

Here's a blast from the past.

It's always too early to tell until it's already happened, but -- man -- Victoria's market is looking like Vancouver's did the spring of 2008.

So don your Michael Phelps speedos, sit back, and grab a cool one. What you're seeing going on may be nothing, but regardless you have an excuse to drink.

Robert Reynolds - HMR Insurance said...

daily LOL

El Jeffe said...

"I am always amazed that people can accumulate so much wealth in their lives, with so little care of how they spend it."

I'd be amazed if the topic hasn't been discusses ad nauseum already, but at the risk of opening old arguments....

How much of this wealth is actively accumulated and how much of it simply falls into the waiting lap of the next generation in the form of inheritance? A great deal of real estate wealth, (and possibly savings but to a lesser extent i'm sure) gets passed on down the line on a weekly, if not daily, basis here in victoria. Many expensive homes from the core are original $15k+ specials built in the 1940's which now happen to command outrageous prices because they were built on the farmland that eventually became fairfield and oak bay.

I'm certain it would be much easier to squander that money on a ridiculously priced house if it were earned so easily and from much the same source it went back into. Maybe some of the increase around here is simply due to the ongoing accrual of family fortunes.

Just a thougt....

Just Jack said...

"Maybe some of the increase around here is simply due to the ongoing accrual of family fortunes."

Along with easy credit and low interest rates.


Just Jack said...

But I state the obvious. :-)


a simple man said...

marko, marko, marko
Marko, Marko, Marko

The March numbers, please!

The first of the month has always been a symbolic day for me, but now even more so.

Just Jack said...

We took a look at two homes last night and put an offer in on a little fixer upper on Bay street. I can do most of the work myself and should be able to sell it in the fall for a good profit. Waiting by the phone to see if the offer has been accepted.

a simple man said...

JJ - what a coincidence - I bought a condo on Bear Mountain last night hoping to flip it next summer to some Mainland Chinese folks the salesperson said had been looking around there lately - he told me there was only one condo left and he had six appointments to view it after me. Me, being shrewd, quickly snapped it up. Ha - I will have the last laugh!

Marko said...

It was a slow month. I know the inventory is high but SOOOOOO much garbage out there! I have a lot of buyers right now wanting to buy and not much out there.

Friday April 1, 2011 8:15am:

Mar Mar
2011 2010
Net Unconditional Sales: 622 789
New Listings: 1,501 1,719
Active Listings: 4,100 3,712

Please Note

•Left Column: stats for the entire month from this year
•Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year