MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.
March 2011 (percent change from 2010 in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 622 (-21%)
New Listings: 1,501 (-13%)
Active Listings: 4,100 (+9.5%)
Sales to new listings ratio: 41%
Sales to active listings ratio: 15% or 6.6 MOI
March 2010 totals
Net Unconditional Sales: 789
New Listings: 1,719
Active Listings: 3,712
Sales to new listings ratio: 46%
Sales to active listings ratio: 21% or 4.7 MOI
Prepare for revised BCREA sales volumes forecasts soon. I have no idea how they think that sales volumes will increase from 2010 when the first three months of 2011 have shown a 20% declining trend.
If the mortgage rule changes indeed brought buyers forward (and it looks likethey may have slightly given the front-loaded sales volume in March) it didn't bring many. Are buyers exhausted, priced out or have Victorians finally figured out that paying $400K for a 2-bedroom crack shack on Burnside isn't a prudent financial decision?
How does March 2011 stack up against the previous decade?
So why aren't prices falling yet? The trend is towards an over hang of inventory and a lack of sales volume. We're not into the trend long enough to see price pressure yet.