MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.
Month to date April 2011 (last week's numbers in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 299 (167)
New Listings: 846 (514)
Active Listings: 4,211 (4,103)
Current sales to new listings ratio: 35% (32%)
April 2010 totals
Net Unconditional Sales: 756
New Listings: 1,783
Active Listings: 4,229
Sales to new listings ratio: 42%
Sales to active listings ratio: 18% or 5.6 MOI
Buyers and sellers are both on strike. Inventory is still high, but it's not growing at a rate fast enough to create significant price pressure. Keep up the discussion!
Month to date April 2011 (last week's numbers in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 299 (167)
New Listings: 846 (514)
Active Listings: 4,211 (4,103)
Current sales to new listings ratio: 35% (32%)
April 2010 totals
Net Unconditional Sales: 756
New Listings: 1,783
Active Listings: 4,229
Sales to new listings ratio: 42%
Sales to active listings ratio: 18% or 5.6 MOI
Buyers and sellers are both on strike. Inventory is still high, but it's not growing at a rate fast enough to create significant price pressure. Keep up the discussion!
169 comments:
General strike... now now Dix's chair isn't even warmed up yet!
Those fractional ownership condominiums on Bare Mountain are not doing too well.
A current listing at $69,000 entitles you to the use of the suite one week a month or you can put the suite into the rental pool. But half the time the suite will be empty through out the year.
Then there are the expenses, which are massive for things like management and cleaning fees, so by the end of the year while you may gross $8,000, you only net between a thousand to two thousand as a rental property.
That's a return that really blows chunks as an investment property.
You would have to get the property for under $40,000 in order to make a reasonable return. Which is a lot less than the original buyer who bought for double that price. This is also one type of property that BC Assessment can't get even close in valuation. So the assessments are useless.
I could understand buying one, if they weren't quarter ownership units. Because, I can see the allure of living in a Hotel for six consecutive months - but not for a week once a month.
I think its a system that works great for the Hotel chain, but it has a very very limited appeal to individual buyers.
Maybe, advertise them as "Divorce" units. That way you can rotate the spouse out of the home once a month and keep the kids in the same home. That may be a lucrative angle. The "No-Tell Ho-tel" for divorcees. For $69,000 it could save a marriage - or not.
Finally, some good reporting!:
Vancouver Up, Victoria Down
So, why is Vancouver still going strong and our market reversing itself? Our incomes are about the same, so is the interest rates and mortgage terms.
Could it all come down to the media attention on the Hot Asian Market? As Richmond and the West Side supposedly explode in sales to the mainland Chinese.
Victoria tried to have our form of HAM.
Hot American Market,
Hot Albertan Market,
Hot Ontario Market (HOM),
Hot Retiree Market (HRM),
Hot Swedish Stewardess Market (HSSM) but none really took hold.
Pity, I was really rooting for the last one.
Just Jack
LOL. Too funny!
Victoria, like Vancouver, was beating out real estate performance in the rest of the province until just recently. (I've mentioned here before that things have been *very* slow in the interior for about a year now). So the interior market slows down, the Victoria market slows down, and then Vancouver? Is it just a matter of population size that fuels demand? I'd say that even Vancouver is getting close to running out of Hot Swedish Stewardesses to prop up its market...
Anyone been through 568 Toronto St.? It seems like a good deal for James Bay (listed at $48,000 below assessment right off the bat).
Here in Vancouver/LML the interior is slowing too. Just some select areas and property types that are on fire in Richmond and Vancouver West.
Speaking of West Van/Richmond- I am seeing a decent portion of homes in Gordon Head (primarily renovated) going to out of town buyers (primarily Asia).
I wonder what specifically in Gordon Head would appeal to someone from China or Taiwan for example. Certainly no amenities like Richmond. Maybe because of Uvic?
I have a client coming from Taiwan in August and specifically wants to buy only in GH.
Marko, although I know little about China I have been told by someone in banking that many Chinese are buying in Vancouver to get their money out of China as there is a loophole that allows them to get money out of the country (as Communist Government restricts this) as long as it is invested into real estate that aligns with a family member going to school in a foreign country. There are big concerns amongst the rich with recent changes in China that their money may not be safe at home, so they want to get a bunch out and buying real estate in Vancouver is the perfect solution. Canada welcomes foreign students, our schools are good, we have a large Chinese population in Vancouver and houses are expensive. Yes the more expensive the better as this allows them to move out a lot of money which is their primary objective. It is a back up plan to ensure they have money out of China.
I am not sure if all of this is true, but it may explain some of the behaviour and irrational pricing in specific parts of Vancouver. Why Gordon Head? I cannot answer.
At this point their money is probably safer in China than in Vancouver real estate!
I wonder what specifically in Gordon Head would appeal to someone from China or Taiwan
Why don't you ask them?
I have and the answer is always "area is nice" or similar, but so is Oak Bay and Fairfield, etc.
Speaking of Gordon Head, I was driving over to my parents' house on Sunday and noticed MLS#290183 had an open house. Lots of cars there for a couple of hours.
I was telling my wife how depressing it is to see the BMW's and Mercs at an open house in GH since imho they don't 'belong' there. Another sign of the rising cost of ownership. Most people in that neighbourhood don't drive beemers.
I took a look at the listing since I recalled that house having been sold last year. The inside photos don't look good! Would have thought it was a flip, but the only thing I can recall having seen is a little old lady having swept out the carport. Did they literally just clean up the yard and relist? Photos on the listing seem to back that up.
Don't know what it sold for last year but they want $700k for it according to the listing.
Dave3
Reid
I think you're on the right track. China has a $50,000 limit on the amount of money you can take out of the country and I have wondered at the loopholes that allowed for the real estate purchases here. One of the reasons they may not feel their money is safe is much of it is stolen. Vancouver is well known as a haven for money stolen by bureaucrats and other corrupt officials, partly because of lax to no enforcement on this end to the fact that we don't repatriate criminals to China. Fat Lai's continued presence here speaks very loudly over there.
I know someone who owns a Porsche bought on his HELOC. I know someone else who could only buy his new vehicle on his HELOC. He couldn't make the payments for a 5 year loan but could over 25 years.
There are so many 'luxury' cars driving around now I would assume that some of them were also bought this way.
Just because someone owns a BMW or a Merc doesn't mean they have lots of cash. They may have a highly leveraged house though.
S2
I haven't heard the theory about finding a loophole to get money out of China, but even if it is true the question in my mind is why choose Richmond over California, Florida, etc.
I love Victoria and I think BC will probably always have a price premium over the rest of the country, but in my mind there are other spots I would buy if I were HAM.
California; large asian population, gorgeous weather, low taxes, lower home prices, truly world class cities (sorry folks Vancouver is not world class)
My belief is that the effect of HAM is wildly overblown by realtors and MSM to explain this bubble. Any HAM that does exist (and there is some) are clueless speculators who are piling into the bubble at the worst possible time. Think Nortel and Yahoo late 1999.
Dave - if it's any consolation, there was nothing but crickets chirping at this Gordon Haad open house on the weekend:
$629,900
MLS® 288340
3 Beds, 3 Baths
1939 Sierra Pl, Victoria
RE/MAX Camosun
Not a car to be seen.
In a mad rush to get this house to the market, they built a fence in the back that has already fallen down (posts pounded in dirt only), sprinkled bark mulch everywhere("immaculate landscaping" my a$$) and laminated the upstairs with the cheapest laminate possible (the kind you can see the pixels in the faux woodgrain)covering over all the furnace ductwork vents and cold air return. Oh and that tennis court next door (I stress right next door) comes alive on weekends at 6 am along with people shouting "it's out", "no, it's in" coupled with the popping sounds of tennis balls bouncing of the rackets and court. Not a "must be seen!".
And since the HELOC's in Canada end today, there will be fewer nice cars and other goodies going forward.
(Unless the banks want to take all the risk which isn't going to happen!)
Richmond is a lot closer than Florida, and the Asian population is much larger than California's as a % of population. But again, lax enforcement here is important.
While hard data is scarce it is widely believed among the Chinese that the majority of its millionaires are govt officials. And the safest place for their money when the wind changes is a foreign country with a track record of providing shelter to proven criminals.
Fat Lai, for example, didn't fall afoul of the govt because he broke the law. It was because he lost the protection of his patrons in the Politburo. The bureaucrats and politicians stashing their money in Vancouver real estate have learned this lesson.
@Phil the HELOC changes only affect high ratio loans. It will be a prolonged effect over the next few quarters, especially in dropping markets like OK. For now low ratio locs are business as usual... mostly.
Jesse, I might be confused but the rule as stated on the CMHC site seems pretty clear - no more HELOC's will be insured period. Note the last FAQ...CMHC
@ Marko
According to my better half who teaches ESL in public schools (Victoria, Saanich, Sidney, etc), the "area is nice" translated = there are other Asian's in the neighbourhood and there are the right resources in the schools for the children to learn English.
Anecdotally (sample size = 1), going to high school back in the 1980's, all my Asian friends lived in Gordon Head (I had friends @ Oak Bay, Spectrum, etc, but GH & Mt. Doug seemed to be the Asian place). Maybe it still is ?
A little reassurance (ammunition?) for the rent and wait proponents:
Globe and Mail: Why Renting Is Beginning to Look Like a Great Deal
http://tinyurl.com/3gff6ah
The news articles in the past few days have been interesting - it seems they're finally starting to change their tune in spite of the real estate industry's attempts to claim it's 'all good'.
I've heard that Gordon Head is popular with Asians because of the house sizes. Not sure how true this is. Maybe the Feng Shui in Gordon Head is good?
S2
Being of Chinese descent, I can tell you that the they are drawn to GH due to the housing type and age of house. Big box houses are practical when there's a possibility of three generations living under one roof. With lots of rooms in a logical layout, each kid can have their own space to study into the wee hours of the night. GH boxes are also easily suited as we have seen near UVic and Camosun.
When it comes to age, Asians generally don't like old homes. In China, it's common to see 20yr old buildings torn down to make space for bigger and newer dwellings. This happened a lot in the 70's to 90's in Vancouver. Bungalows made way for 2000+ sq ft Vancouver Specials.
So when we look at Oak Bay and Fairfield, the houses typically don't fit the wants of an Chinese family. The room layout comes across as awkward. Three bedrooms are often not enough. Not many Chinese are knowledgable in the trades so renovations and the creation of suites can be costly.
SuperBob, HAM (Previously Bob Leftcoaster)
Xtranormal cartoon on what would happen if the Canadian housing market took a down turn. Warning risque' cartoon clothing in video. Hit play, but look away.
Man, I've tried a dozen times to write something on this thread and every time I've deleted it, because of a fear of being tainted as a racist.
I think I'll do what most Canadians do - and just nod and smile, nod and smile.
2280 Estevan Ave on a 7100 sq ft lot - $450K. Now we are getting somewhere in the right direction.
Sellers and real estate agents were thrilled to see this in the Business section of the TC.
Click here for screenshot
You can read the article by clicking here
I can hear the squeal and the smell of burning rubber as a dozen BMW's descend on that property on Estevan.
A cheap price for that location. That listing will draw a lot of attention and I'm guessing multiple offers.
Meanwhile, the home owner's along the street, likely got a lump in their shorts when they heard the asking price.
This type of selling tactic of using a low price to build excitement and getting offers presented wasn't necessary a few years back. That it still generates multiple offers, shows that their are still some prospective buyers who can't read newspapers.
JJ: It's not racist if you insult all ethnic groups within a single post! Agreed, it is tough to generalize when talking about races and ethnic groups. My comments only address one subgroup within the Canadian-Asian community and not all within that group may agree with my views.
"JJ: It's not racist if you insult all ethnic groups within a single post!"
---------
I thought that was just being British.
I'm thinking the Times Colonist could make more money if it offered not to print bad news about the real estate market.
VREB and the realtors would pay the Colonist not to write articles. It would be a lot more cost efficient for the newspaper - no more reporters needed - no more ink. It would be 52 pages of blank paper. The Colonist would probably win awards for best journalism in Canada! After all, the bar ain't that high in Canada.
@ Just Jack
I thought that was just being British.
LOL
In the 70's and 80's, Mt.Doug and Oak Bay were considered the "best" (or most academic) high schools in Victoria. I had friends who bussed across town to attend either of these "senior secondary" high schools.
Not only do the proximity of UVic and Camosun (Landsdowne campus) add to the appeal of living in Gordon Head, but does the perceived quality of the schools.
* * * * * * * * *
Interestingly, I've lived about half my life in various East Saanich neighbourhoods (Ten Mile Point, Gordon Head, North Quadra, Cedar Hill, Maplewood) and the other half in West Saanich (Royal Oak, Glanford, Marigold, Tillicum).
A house in West Saanich of similar quality, age and neighbourhood costs at least $100K less than it's counterpart in East Saanich. Is the proximity to certain schools and ocean glimpses worth 100K?
Here's fun video proof that the draw to Victoria and Vancouver started long ago...everyone has wanted to move here since.
http://tinyurl.com/44lt8hv
(note around the 7:15 mark about the fabulous housing in Vancouver... a city at the time of only 350,000!)
Estevan is pretty much lot value and as it's on the corner of Cadboro Bay it isn't that great.
Thanks DavidL,
I don't know if prospective buyers think of it being a $100,000 more or less to live in an area. The question would be - are you willing to pay another $400 to $500 a month in a mortgage payment to live in Gordon Head versus Burnside or Tillicum?
The nice thing about Gordon Head is that it is just far enough away from the downtown core to keep street people away. But close enough that you can drive downtown in under 15 minutes. The houses and lots are a good size and although built in the 1970's with only a few different floor plans, the homes are well kept and not suffering from too much dry rot.
The bad thing about Gordon Head is that you need a car to get anywhere. That means your running a personal taxi service 24-7.
Oakland's school seems to be the one at the top of parent's want list today. The school may be one of the reasons why so many desperate people are swarming the neighborhood for real estate signs. I suppose when Mr. Crisp retires the school board will have to shut down Oaklands. And gawd help us all if he transfers to a Langford school!
The street people are pushing their shopping carts farther north and rumor has it that one or two have been seen near the Jubilee during blue box days. But the cities policy of leaving enormous pot holes in the street to thwart their advance into new neighborhoods appears to be working fine
Since the last lot to sell in Oak Bay was for $547,000, that would make Estevan worth less than lot value.
But I understand what you mean at such a cheap price the building can't be worth very much. Yet someone will buy it and live there for the next 25 years.
Because, few people know what lot value is in Oak Bay.
Because you could argue that a quarter of the Oak Bay homes are just lot value. Then why aren't they being ripped down. Surely the builders would know this and the diesel fumes from bulldozers would be thick over the city. But nope, the builders can't demolish, build and sell for a profit at these prices, so the homes are not at lot value.
What they are is an enigma. Too small of a house size for a middle income family and too expensive for a first time home buyer. You might call it a holding lot - which has been holding for 30 years.
A tough sell for any realtor, unless you can get some interest going, start a panic by keeping them hot and don't accept offers with subjects.
So hook em, cook em and F%#$ em.
Is 2031 Frederick Norris Rd a relist from last year? Anyone know if it sold? How much it was listed for?
2031 Frederick Norris was listed last year for 739k and it last sold back in 2005 for 630k.
LOVE this ad!
House to flip
Waiting,
Thanks for the tip on the Amphion house.
I called the guy and he can take me through it tonight. Might be just what I am looking for. A place to live that I can easily flip after a year.
BTW - What is paper covered wiring? Something new?
EagerBuyer,
Don't try to flip an Oak Bay border property when you can actually be behind the tweed curtain for the same money.
Here is a real deal for you.
Foul Bay
For a bit more money you can get this one.
Musgrave
You better hurry. Both have had recent price reductions and buyer competition could get fierce. Use an agent that knows how to quickly write subject free, full price offers
@ Eager Buyer wrote: What is paper covered wiring? Something new?
Paper coated copper wiring dates back to the 1940's and 1950's. Consult a licensed electrician for more information.
Renovations = permits = new wiring required.
Better yet, have the owner and the listing agent fill in the sale price for you.
Couple quickies on that INCREDIBLE *cough* Amphion flip, aside from the usual checks
Look for silver-coloured galvanized plumbing under sinks,etc(rusts from inside out, 50 year lifespan).
Fuse box upgraded to at least 100 amp panel? Check for non-grounded 2 prong outlets in rooms. Hopefully no aluminum wiring mixed with copper over the years.
Likely no insulation in the walls. See whats been added to the attic over the years for starters. The fifties seem to be the era they thought power would free.
P.S. If nothing scares you there, try a quote for a new kitchen.
one more thing to look for on the amphion flip: old drain tiles - either concrete octagonal pipes protruding from the ground connected to the downspouts. Nothing ruins a good flip than a good flood!Granted rotor rooter could come in and snake the system and it might last you till you sell. Write that up as a one of your conditions of sale or reduce the price after inspection pending you wrote/write sale subject to inspection results.
@Phil you are right no more insurance for HELOCs but low ratio credit lines are not required to be insured.
Any one have details on 915 Dellwood?
http://www.royallepage.ca/jumplisting/search/BC/Victoria/295499/0?feed=4&userName=jdunn&language=fr
I got curious about 1728 Amphion Street, and why it is being marketed as having "flip" potential. I see that the house was assessed for $477,600 on July 1st, 2010. One block away at 1636 Amphion Street, the house was assessed for $509,000, but then was sold on 26/Aug/2010 for $477,500.
Does this mean that 1728 Amphion Street is overpriced?
@ Sudden Valley
According to my PCS, 915 Dellwood Road was sold on April 5th for $512K. It was originally listed on February 23rd for $539K, then reduced to $525K on March 17th.
One of my clients bought 915 Dellwood.
Three years ago prices peaked in March and then started dropping like a stone for the rest of 2008. It took record low "emergency" interest rates in early 2009 to get prices heading back up.
Single Family Home Graph
Will record low sales in 2011, rising interest rates and new mortgage rules send prices down this road again?
@DavidL Thanks! I saw it listed for $525 and I guess Marko helped get them down to $512. Wow. Isn't that a big drop? Or was it listed too high?
@ Sudden Valley
If I recall correctly - the house was assessed for about $560K, so I'm guessing that some repairs/upgrades were needed. I don't know if Marco is in a position to shed more light on this.
512k before $6,426 in cash back!
Home needs a renovation (one owner since built in 1977) but it is 2400 sq/ft finished+, architect designed, very solid structure including a steel I-beam, possibility to put in a legal suite, and it has a huge 600 sq/ft + double car garage. Lot is 75 x 100 plus first 20 feet of lawn on the front are city so it really feels like 75 x 120. New roof, new drain tile.
Area is improving especially now with Craigflower being upgraded. Recently we built a $900,000 home on Rhoda Lane a few blocks over, owners are happy with locale as both work downtown so easier commute than Gordon Head for example.
Morning news, guy said if you measure house prices in u.s. currency like everything else, we’ve gained over 60% in last 2 years. Said we never see that kind of gain again in our lifetime. I think what he was getting at was loonie strength.
2082 Meadow relists yet again...and once again bucks the trend of logic and lists for higher than their last price.
Chase that market down!
More Canadians Feeling Squeezed
"If their retirement income doesn’t support their lifestyle, respondents said they would live frugally, move to a smaller house or rent, or stay in their present homes and sell off assets."
Estevan Ave - SOLD.
@ Marco
Nice cash back! I know where to go if I need an agent. ;-)
I'm not surprised Estevan sold right away. I actually thought it would go higher than it did.
Estevan asking: $449,900
Estevan sale price: $456,000
They obviously didn't generate much of a bidding war...
That realtor may be eating some humble pie since it was priced far below appraisal.
Hmmm ... with regards to the "Estavan" property - what are the legalities regarding refusing an offer over asking price? Can an owner refuse an offer for arbitrary reasons? Thus, can the owner fabricate a reason to reject an offer, only to re-list the property at a higher price?
(I've never sold a home - so if these questions seem ignorant - well, they are.)
I believe as the seller you have complete discretion to accept or not accept an offer, even if it is over asking.
happy renter,
Thanks for posting that article. Kinda falls in line with the university study “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble” (google if interested).
Results & Conclusions blurb is all you need to know. That and reitrees become net sellers. Not nearly enough baby-Babyboomers and immigrants to replace the Babyboomers. Canada abnd US same demographics, except we lag a bit. Once the first percent turns it'll be the same stampede as the last ten years (bbb's & bb's buying up everything) but in opposite diretcion.
The seller is under no obligation to sell the home even if the offer is above list price.
The listing is only advertising for people to present offers. The owner can still reject any and all offers without giving cause.
Nor should you assume that the information on the listing is accurate. Again, the mls listing is just an advertisement to get your attention.
But it looks like Estevan may be slated for demolition. Tough lot to build on being so shallow and you don't want to have access off Cadboro Bay Road. The question is - can you get a million plus dollars for a new home in this location? The neighborhood is old and dated in appearance.
But, who knows maybe the buyer will start a trend and we'll start to see these 1940's homes finally get crushed. It's about time we started building some "Vancouver Specials" in Victoria.
I don't know if it applies with all realtors, but when I sold my condo in March, my contract with my realtor had a specific clause that stated if my realtor brought me a price for the full list price or higher that I would accept it and complete the sale. When I asked about it, she explained that the clause was in there because in the past (not so much now) they would have full price offers and then their seller would think they could get more money so they would refuse the offer and relist at a higher price. Cancel their contract, get a new realtor, new list price and the old realtor got nothing. So essentially when I was agreeing to list at the price I did, if she brought that price in, I had to sell it for that. If not - as in most real estate deals - I was not obligated of course to accept anything less than my list price. And as she said, this is why she wanted me to be completely comfortable with the list price in the first place.
I don't know if this is a standard clause or one she added for her own contracts. But if that house on Estevan had that clause in the contract - maybe the realtor's plan backfired a bit in terms of having multiple over-asking offers and the seller had to complete the sale anyway. Realtor gets paid in the end - which is the ultimate goal right? ;)
"had a specific clause that stated if my realtor brought me a price for the full list price or higher that I would accept it and complete the sale"
Wow, I would never sign that, too many ways to abuse it. I'm always amused by how much faith people put into list prices. One of the oldest negotiating tricks in the book.
I think it would have to be an unconditional offer thought? You could always say you don't accept the conditions.
There are a number of high profile agents in Victoria that cross out that clause - standard procedure.
<sarcasm>
You mean that some realtors don't have their clients' best interests at heart?
</sarcasm>
Yes, I think it was in reference to an unconditional offer. I'd have to find it and read it again to be sure.
Jesse: I didn't have blind faith. I did extensive research on the market, trends, realtors and I always read ALL of the fine print (and make'em sit there while I do it, hehe). I agreed to the list price - I knew we wouldn't get it but I didn't think it was an unreasonable starting point and if she did get it, it was just gravy. But you are right that for those that are uninformed, they can just believe blindly what their realtor is telling them about a starting list price. We're obviously seeing it everywhere these days.
"my contract with my realtor had a specific clause that stated if my realtor brought me a price for the full list price or higher that I would accept it and complete the sale."
my contract also stated this, though it was for an unconditional offer.
Does anyone know the assessed price on Estevan - it isn't in either of my PCS accounts.
Thanks
animal spirit:
$510,600
be interesting to see the domino effect on 2727 Foul Bay Rd's price (ML No: 290920 asking 505k, assessed at $456,700) given the Estevan sale.
Strange to see $500 off 1st months rent brochures in my mailbox. I dont know if ever seen this in Victoria? Vacancy rate must be still going up.
Was in Okanagan this month and real estate is slow, slower than Victoria, but prices still holding up. Interesting the Central Okanagan which is the strongest real estate market in Okanagan valley only had 341 sales but active listings of 4,750 for March. This compares to 622 sales in the Victoria market with 4,100 listings. They have a ten year supply of condos on the market. Sellers in Okanagan are still hopeful but starting to worry as the spring sales rush has yet to start. The Central Okanagan is far more dependant on real estate (the major employer) and non resident buyers (heavy to Albertans who are likely looking in Arizona) than Victoria and there is no major employers like Victoria, yet prices are still holding up.
I would guess this market is 6-12 months ahead of Victoria in terms of a real estate market downturn and yet prices have not tanked. This would imply Victoria may have a long time before our prices tank. It would be worth watching the impending Okanagan real estate collapse as it will prelude Victoria’s.
I’ve heard Kelowna has the f-ugliest prospects of any candian city. All understood by looking at this one nasty@#* red line.
http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/as-sa/97-551/figures/c24-eng.cfm
Talk about no fresh meat for future market. I gotta cut back to just 3 doubledoubles. Really hits home like Reid said, when you figure all those blue bumpkins areArizona bound.
Prices have dropped in Kelowna, though, and I know that they're also down in Vernon and Kamloops:
"Glass, one of five panel members at a session looking at opportunities in B.C. secondary markets, said some prices have dropped in Kelowna by as much as 60 per cent, but that things are starting to change."
Okanagan Market
If Kelowna is like anything in the US, the low-end stuff will drop first, the higher-end will linger for years. This is likely why you will hear diverging reports of the market's health. I expect the same will be true of other BC markets, including precious high-end OakBayGordonHead
Kelowna's inventory numbers say it all. Look for more "accidental landlords" in the coming years.
Lots of little red dots showing up on mls.ca I'm still seeing some sales going through but not as many sales as new listings.
Anyone else notice how many of the new listings appear to be unfurnished (i.e. the owner has already moved out)?
DavidL. I've noticed that too. I think many are estate sales though so they are not so desperate to sell.
As have I noticed the empty house pics - but I always thought an estate sale is quick to sell as the sellers typically want the matter "settled" as fast as possible
257 Richmond just sold...
full price.......
3 days on the market....
No view......
$1,499,000
..........wow.........
Kelowna is certainly imploding from an MOI perspective, but average/median prices are still holding. In fact, they jumped significantly in March since the start of the year.
Individual sales prices seem significantly lower to me so there must be more high end places selling. It seems that the above average price sales have remained steady since last year, but the lower end of the market is dropping off. The low number of sales is also causing large variations in the averages.
Too bad smaller cities don't have a price index. I can point to houses that are literally 2 doors apart and the same layout where the asking price this year is almost 10% off a sale price last year, but that isn't reflected in the averages. I am also following two houses that sold last spring which are back on the market - will be interesting to see what they sell for, one is already listed below last years sale price, and that's after lipstick was applied.
All that being said, I have a theory why averages are still high. I think that people simply buy as much house as they can afford. Got approved for 500k? Buy a house for 500K. This year that 500k gets you more than it would have last year, simple as that.
Oddly, it seems that the higher end prices are falling faster. Anything under 500 is still holding its price, and then there is a steady drop off as you go higher.
The Kelowna inventory of 600+ houses is very high. At 1 million+ there are close to 100 MOI (on average 3-4 sell per month and there are more than 300 listings).
Last year prices dropped from about May through Dec. Should be interesting to see what happens this year. I don't think the average will reflect it, but I expect more than a 10% decrease as far as purchasing power is concerned.
Here's an anecdotal picture of the high end market in Kelowna for you.
The house I'm renting in Kelowna was listed at over a million 2 years ago. It is on a dead-end street and backs onto a pond. There were 5 houses for sale on this same street backing onto the same pond.
Ours was dropped to 965 last spring, before I contacted the owner about renting it. All the houses on the street were making similar price cuts.
One eventually dropped to 850 and sold for 820 in the summer.
Ours was dropped to 865 by last fall before it and the 3 others were all pulled off the market by Dec. One, listed at 1.1 million was rented out for 2600/month.
One came back on in Feb at 800 this year. Ours followed a week later at 800. There's only been one viewing in the past 2 months.
2 weeks ago another house came back on for 760 and it still hasn't sold so...
The race to the bottom continues!
To top it off, our landlord was living in the house with a basement tenant, but moved out to rent us the top two floors for 1900/month. He moved into his other house which is on the market as well.
He stopped by to clean up the flower beds last month and he mentioned that he has taken a 2nd job.
A lot of the rentals we looked at last year were similar stories: moved for a new job, had already bought, husband passed away, etc. All were for sale, but I'm following them and none have sold (0 out of 5).
I can't see how this will end well.
After a relatively strong week for sales, this week is the lowest I've seen in months.
Whats up with 323 island hwy. Shows sold for $380K and relists for $469K(same as old asking price).....Marko???
Dave#1
So much for the Canucks. This one tells more of the story for Kelowna & Victoria.
http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/as-sa/97-551/figures/c23-eng.cfm
Lots of useless stats on that site. So like those USC intelligents found, retirees become net sellers from 65 on. So each year, moreand more decide to sell and rent until final^ retirement. Stubborn ones eat cat food. Doubledown2012 as the boomerbulge crashes 65.
Wouldn’t be near the problem if it werent for those nasty sunbelts stealin our snowbird bumpkins. Not only that, what sane ocean-seeking prairieboomer is gonna choose Vic over Maritimes for their summer home, when its 5 times the price “lassie, for cryin out loud, it's the place where land, water and sky embrace” “we could sail to Spain or the big apple in a day for chrise sakes!”
looks like another local housing blog http://buyersstrike.ca/
Kelowna may be a good example of how a closed market can fall substantially faster than one where list/sale prices are in public domain. No window shoppers looking at what's moving; obfuscated markets add to the uncertainty in potential buyers' minds. Witness how fast YVR fell in '08 before the interest rate adrenaline was administered. Nobody knew what was happening, stuck like a deer in a spotlight.
It may be that opening MLS will help slow down a crash. Crazy thought of the night.
"Whats up with 323 island hwy. Shows sold for $380K and relists for $469K(same as old asking price).....Marko???"
Probably assistant screwed up or something similar.
So last week there were 17 SFH sales under 550k. This week: 3.
20 sales 550k to 900k last week. 8 this week.
Did everyone take an early easter or is there a flood of sales yet to be entered?
Ghost Cities - China
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wm7rOKT151Y&feature=digest
hey - does anyone have the median (or average) selling price for non-luxury houses for the different areas of Victoria? Would love to know what is normal for Fernwood, Maplewood, Oak Bay, etc. (or at Victoria, East Saanich, etc. level).
Thanks
I feel so comforted know that that Phil Soper, Pres and CEO of Royal Lepage, feels "Canada's real estate market has maintained momentum coming out of 2010, indicating that the post-recession recovery is continuing"
http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Home+prices+soften+with+more+listings/4606805/story.html
Once again the TC has closed the article for commenting. The 'emperor' has no clothes yet they bow down to him anyway...
1052 Elliston
another flip sold in Feb this year for $490k now asking $649k -
http://kimsettler.com/officelistings.html/details-18734623
so, given the upgrades described, how much over expenses (windows/flooring/deck/pain etc) do you feel the owner expects to clear at this price and will get it?
$50K-80K, not counting for Realtor commission.
I am up in Campbell River this long weekend, and the number of listings up here is staggering. There are for sale signs everywhere!
I also looked at the VIREB stats for March, sales are down 33% YoY, and prices are exactly the same as march 2010. Comox Valley Avg. price is down 7% YoY.
Weather in CR has gone to crap so I have nothing better to do than play with Excel, ;)
Graph of Campbell River SFH average price since Jan 2008
Prices crashed in fall of 2008 just like everywhere else, but have made no recovery.
Hey all, anyone know if 1609 Keating Cross Road sold? They're down the road from us and their sign has come down. We're curious - they're asking ~$1,000,000 for an 8 yr old house and 2 acres of land with a protected creek running through the back - and we're wondering if someone has ponied up.
Sunday night preview of this weeks stats:
April 17-24
- 343 New listings
- 177 Price changes
- 130 Pending sales
Previous weeks:
April 10-17
- 331 New listings
- 215 Price changes
- 130 Pending sales
April 3-10
- 405 New listings
- 191 Price changes
- 113 Pending sales
0nly 429 sales so far in April. With one week left to go we won't hit 580 for the month which is less than last month's 622. This will be the worst April for MLS sales in 10 years!
Looks like some significant cooling of activity in Vancouver :
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/04/24/its-over/
Might be a 52% drop in Richmond.
I see 1609 Keating Cross Road's listing as cancelled.
S2
Thanks, S2! My PCS only shows low end houses. (Though I still can't quite believe that $550,000 qualifies as low end.)
For the past few weeks I have been posting the weekly MLS stats that I get from a local real estate agent. Readers have noted that sales have been anemic this month and will be lower than any April in the past ten years.
How do the 130 sales this week compare with last year? I went through this blogs archives and found an interesting graph by Double Agent:
Weekly sales
You can clearly see that sales were never below 145 per week last April and for the week ending April 25th there were 220 sales.
This April is a disaster!
It is interesting to note that in 2010 weekly sales stayed above 145 until mid-June.
Seems like the buyer pool has drained quickly with the new mortgage rules and higher interest rates.
thanks JustWaiting...
And let's remember that last year was a bit of a disaster for real estate, especially after May. If this year is worse, there will be a lot of Re agents shifting careers.
If the expected price drops materialize, there will be a fire sale on a lot of HELOC-secured BMWs and Ranger Rovers as well.
Excellent! I'm in the market for a new car! I like BMWs.
drive a new BMW, live in Oak Bay and rat the neighbors out as a hobby, what a life, cant be any better.
Just joking, no offense intended -;).
Ghost Cities - China
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wm7rOKT151Y&feature=digest
Is the implication that Victoria, too, will become a ghost city after our market crashes? I call lame!!!
So far I'm zero for three! Living in Gordon Hood, surrounded by suites and driving a mini van. But I'm not in debt!! :)
Al - it is at least partially true - one of my mom's friends bought a home on Dalhousie and was getting a quote for pruning a pear tree in their yard - before the arbourist was out of the tree a bylaw officer was there telling them they could not cut the tree. Only a nosy neighbour could get that kind of response.
Yes introvert, it's just a matter of time before theres nothing but tumbleweeds and the odd discarded walker in oak bay. The end is near!
Here it is Tuesday and no official Marko update yet?
I see the half finished fixer upper at 2804 Cook St. went for $19,000 over asking. They've done a nice job already on the exterior and landscape, hope the new owner doesn't lose their shirt filling its insides.
Looks like HHV and Marko have left the building....
This "general strike" topic is over a week old. No Monday stats from Marko. Even Just Jack hasn't been around for awhile.
Maybe they all had a sugar crash after eating too many chocolate easter eggs....
I get the sense HHV is very busy during the tax season.
Marko seems to be MIA so here are the latest stats from local agent Chuck Isherwood:
Month to date April 2011 (last week's numbers in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 442 (299)
New Listings: 1,213 (846)
Active Listings: 4,328 (4,211)
Current sales to new listings ratio: 36% (35%)
April 2010 totals
Net Unconditional Sales: 756
New Listings: 1,783
Active Listings: 4,229
Sales to new listings ratio: 42%
Sales to active listings ratio: 18% or 5.6 MOI
thanks Just Waiting...the march downward continues.
This is shaping up worse than last year, which was a disaster year for RE.
As food and fuel costs ramp up I am hearing a lot of moaning from the community around me - I have head "we just can't take this much longer" a lot of times in the past week.
"Looks like HHV and Marko have left the building...."
Probably just took a long weekend.
Low interest rates really pumped the Victoria real estate market two years ago. From March 2009 to December 2009 agents and sellers watched the average price soar higher. What happened after that once mortgage rules were tightened and the sales were not so brisk?
Townhouse average price
Single Family Home average price
Condo average price
Now that we are at 10 year sales lows I wonder what happens next?
@ a simple man wrote: As food and fuel costs ramp up I am hearing a lot of moaning from the community around me - I have head "we just can't take this much longer" a lot of times in the past week.
I know a number of people who sold last year and are now happy renters. One fellow was paying ~$3000/month on his mortgage and now rents a modest house for $1400/month.
I also know a few people who put all their eggs in the real estate investment basket and are now wondering why prices have stopped climbing. When interest rates climb, I expect that some of them will need take on second jobs to manage their mortgage payments.
Based on the current sales figures, I wouldn't want to be trying to sell right now ...
There was a time not so long ago when being a renter was seen as being someone that didn't have it together in life. That is changing.
I see "828" has dropped his price 10k ... doubt that will have any effect considering what is for sale around him and not selling. Too bad, so sad:
http://www.usedvictoria.com/classified-ad/South-Oak-Bay---Beautiful-House---Reduced-to-729000_14690604
I was told that, for the most part, the buyers left in this market are pretty savvy. A property has 3 weeks to sell and after that becomes stale. If you price incorrect, it does become stale and you get to ride the market down. Buyers assume something is wrong with it when it has been on the market too long. I don't know about you, but relisting doesn't fool me.
828 was on the market for a long time last year before the present buyer bought it. Nothing has been done to it since the owner bought it. It is a very small house, and I would say that the market is lower than last year. I dare say 828 has blown his chance to sell with a greedy price.
OMC - agreed. We are sitting the market out and are quite pleased with what is going on in the market - I am truly on a buyers strike but watch the market daily.I still get the quarterly email from my mortgage broker inquiring on my purchasing status and re-locking me in at the latest rate.
A friend of mine was lamenting about his 500k/35 year mortgage and the maintenance/upkeep of his home the other day. I replied, tongue and cheek, that as a renter I look forward to when things break down. A simple call to my "equity rich" landlord (which I once was for 14 years) and presto,issue resolved or betterment in the form of new appliances. That being said, there is not a day at work, that someone ask me, "have you bought yet?". To which my reply is "why would I catch falling knives?".(ergo my moniker)
I've noticed a few realtor's advertising "free cruise for two with purchase" or to that effect. Anyone know the skinny on this? Is it like the old days when gyms (i.e. Nautilus for those that have been around a while in Victoria) would give you free airline tickets to Hawaii with each membership sold only to find out you have to book through a specific hotel at an inflated price that turns out not to be "free"? What's the catch?
I give $7,350 cash back on a $600,000 purchase. If anyone wants a free cruise I'll gladly provide that instead. I don't see anything too fishy there.
OMC - I see you are still trolling and bullying online. Who are you? I've reviewed most of your comments from previous posts and they are mostly negative. A chip on your shoulder because you rent perhaps? I can't figure out why you are such a jerk on here...Perhaps you are the one stealing my signs in the area. Oh no hang on - you probably don't live here, but you wish you did. Say what you want about my house, all it takes is one buyer. Gosh, I can't wait to find out where you live, and blast your house.
"Gosh, I can't wait to find out where you live, and blast your house."
828Hampshire ..relax man. You're getting yourself wound up for no reason.That comment could be perceived as a threat by OMC.Don't incriminate yourself further than you already have.You still have the option of deleting your post and saving face.
wow. 828 you might want to delete that one - its likely over the line, especially considering that OMC's post was speculative instead of being personal.
828 - I think there may be some good advice in there that may save you $$$ in the long run.
And some of your comments are very, very aggressive and bordering on threatening.
Since you have a history for saying nasty things and then deleting them - for the public record as posted by 828Hampshire:
"OMC - I see you are still trolling and bullying online. Who are you? I've reviewed most of your comments from previous posts and they are mostly negative. A chip on your shoulder because you rent perhaps? I can't figure out why you are such a jerk on here...Perhaps you are the one stealing my signs in the area. Oh no hang on - you probably don't live here, but you wish you did. Say what you want about my house, all it takes is one buyer. Gosh, I can't wait to find out where you live, and blast your house."
I have enjoyed this blog, and have nothing against anyone except this OMC bully.
On three occasions he has posted very incorrect, speculation on my house. For that, I have a right to stand up for myself. When he continually says, "nothing has been done to it since the new owner bought it" my wife and I get irked. That simply is not true, and I don't appreciate that. Lots has been done, and a viewing of the house would show that. OMC, don't spread lies behind a computer. Unless you are one of the 19 showings I've had in the last 10 days, and have viewed my home firsthand, you have no right to bully me. Call me up, set a viewing and I would love to point out all the renovations that have been done. Only on one condition OMC, only if you can afford the home. If not, piss off and bully someone else, you're wasting my time.
Simple man - you are a close second behind OMC. I could care less about either of you, but I won't let you bully me online!
You both must realize that the people and houses that you bash on here have feelings, and might actually read this. All I am asking is that you think of how it would make you feel.
Oh by "blast" I meant make fun of. No threat there. Would just love to see him get a taste of his own medicine. Gosh! Anyways, all I would like to see is OMC stop telling lies. Constantly saying "I've done nothing to this house" is not speculation. It hurts my feelings.
If anything, I've learned a lesson from this. I know how hurtful it is to have someone bash you. I hope those on here that do that, learn from this, and change their behavior in the future. Sadly, I'm gone from this blog and won't be back...may you all find your dream home in this wonderful city...good luck!
I can see that you are putting a lot of time and effort into your blog and detailed articles! Will be back often to read more updates!
philippine homes
^ Wow! Blog spam ... whodathunkit?
828 - I'm having a hard time figuring out what you were thinking when you first posted (essentially spammed) on this blog.
Either
1. you were clueless about the general nature of this blog
2. you know there are people here that are looking to eventually buy property in your neck of the woods, but fail to realize that even your lipstick renos don't come close to making your asking price anywhere near reasonable.
Then when you are challenged about what improvements you've made, you refuse to discuss it and respond "set up a viewing".
I value the opinions of posters such as OMC, Simple man, Just Jack (and better half), DavidL, Watching and waiting, plus many others I know I missed. These are obviously intelligent people that have real reasons why places like yours are completely over priced and due for a serious price correction. You haven't said anything that makes me think otherwise.
Quit acting like you’re some kind of victim.
Wow - 828Hampshire, I am sorry that I have done anything to upset you. It seems my biggest offense towards you is asking what renovations you had made so that you could set the record straight - I was trying to mediate a solution for you - however, you refused to disclose that.
I do think your home is overpriced. I am not trying to bully you, but to save you chasing the market down.
Sadly, I'm gone from this blog and won't be back
Sadly? Good riddance I say. People that sign up for the sole purpose of pimping their house here are not exactly valuable contributors to the blog.
hmm, sounds like a buyers' market is becoming reality, even for outside this blog. Maybe its a good idea to google what to do in this type of market for people who want to sell (or buy)? Anger wouldn't help, but a clear and calm mind would.
Interesting Globe and Mail article:
Safe as houses? That loud knocking is falling prices
National MSM is on the bandwagon. Will TC jump on or continue to cosy up to their advertisers?
FSBO's like 828 always have a hard time selling their house. That is why most give up and hire an agent. Here are some of the reasons that I avoid FSBO's...
- The homes are usually overpriced. That is because owners are more concerned with what the house is worth to them instead of the current market value. They also don't have any clue about market value because they only have listing prices in their neighbourhood, not the sale prices.
- When you start to negotiate some sellers get all emotional just like 828 did on this blog. Who needs the drama?
- It takes more effort on the buyers part. You have to get a lawyer to draw up the purchase agreement because you don't have the VREB standard contract which is not biased to buyer or seller. I would never use the agreement forms that the seller has in their possession.
- I have yet to see a FSBO draw up a property Condition & Disclosure Statement (PCDS). Getting them to talk about defects in the property is usually met with denial.
- There are plenty of listings on the market why do I need to hunt through sites like Used Victoria and Kijiji?
- In a market like this one with falling sales and lots of price reductions FSBO properties are not worth looking at.
828 if you are still reading this here is a friendly suggestion. If you really want to sell instead of chasing the market down get an agent. You are wasting your time trying to sell on your own in a buyers market. Interview three agents and use the one that understands current market conditions, gives you a fair market evaluation and has a good marketing package. Avoid the guy that gives you the higher price in order to "buy the listing". Negotiate the commission and then get on the market fast before all the buyers wise up to what is happening
Thinking of buying a home? Here is a list of questions that you should ask the home owner.
1) When was your home built?
2) How long have you owned your home?
3) What changes have you done to your home since you bought the house and roughly how much have you spent on the home on renovations?
4) How old is the roof, furnace and hot water tank?
5) are there any additions or extensions to the home?
And if it's a strata home - are you aware of any special assessments voted on by the strata council?
Then - buy yourself a tape, and measure the house to see if the square footage is accurate or get a letter from the home owner allowing you to see the plans of the house at city hall.
Take your shoes off when your in the home and be aware of sloping floors that you can feel - may be a sign of a problem with the foundation.
Use your nose. Mildew and mould smell. Look for white powder like marks on the basement floor and foundation.
All offers to be subject to a new oil tank being installed at the sellers expense. If there is one.
Then - look at the past sales history of the home. If the home has a high turn over rate be suspicious of why?
Find out what the median price of homes like the one you are considering have sold for over the last year.
Find out what the last property like yours on the same street sold for and when.
Never buy a revenue property if you have to put down more than 20 percent down in order to have a positive cash flow. The return on your equity should be slightly higher than a 30 year bond.
Never buy an investment property when rents are going down or vacancy rates are going up.
There is no such thing as getting into the real estate market at any price. Being over zealous today will have a multiple affect of hurt when it comes time to sell in the future.
Now look at the neighbors properties - are they well kept? This may indicate how many properties are rented or neglected by the owners.
If you can't do the above legwork - hire someone who is unbiased to do it for you, which usually will cost you $200 to $300.
Formulate your offer to purchase, including price, dates and extras to be included. Negotiate away the extras before you alter your price.
Be prepared to walk away because there is always another home coming up for sale.
Be polite - but firm
@ Just Jack
Great suggestions!
I just wanted to add that whatever you buy or rent - it is also worthwhile to familiarize yourself with the local traffic patterns. You might drop by to see a property on a quiet Sunday afternoon only to discover the that the traffic is noisy and clogs local roads for hours each weekday. Talk to neighbours to get an unbiased opinion.
This is what I suggest to FSBOs. If the home is worth $600,000 and the commission at 6%+3% is about 23.5k with taxes you need to price the home at around 588k privately.
People typically aren't going to look at a FSBO home if they can get a comparable MLS listed home for the same price.
Lots of demand for my $695 flat fee listing package and one of them recently sold too!
Like it or not, MLS is the defacto standard. Nothing against FSBO but I think the majority of people will not see a listing that isn't on MLS. At the minimum I think sellers should spring the $700 to get on there.
Heck, they even have a set of smartphone apps now that work great.
Seems like life is coming back to the market, my PCS is lighting up like a Christmas tree.
Hey Marco, there were new townhouses down the street that sat empty for a whole year before miraculously selling recently. they were 147 Ladysmith st. and 118 Montreal st. What did they go for? I think they started off in the 900s or some rediculas amount.
795k and 800k.
Marko,
I know that you offer discounts to buyers for the Victoria (VREB) area. Can you act as a buyers agent for VIREB listings over the Malahat in Duncan or Mill Bay?
Just asking... Maybe it isn't worth your while due to travelling or extra fees to be a member of VIREB.
Can anyone tell me if 2168 Bartlett Ave sold last year (or earlier this year)? I remember looking at it when it was for sale and I see it is listed for rent now so I'm wondering if it in fact sold or if it just got taken off the market.
2168 Bartlet sold on March 15:
ML No: 288650 List $: $779,900
Status: Sold Orig $: $779,900
DOM: 32 Sold $: $755,000
@ Waiting - how much is it renting for?
We are just in the process of renewing our lease!
$2200 It's pretty high for what it is. It's only 2 bdrm up and the basement height is very low in most spots. One room was ok height. Not really suitable for us but I like the location.
Anything good for rent in your area?
"I know that you offer discounts to buyers for the Victoria (VREB) area. Can you act as a buyers agent for VIREB listings over the Malahat in Duncan or Mill Bay?"
I can but too busy right now to consider driving over the Malahat.
@ Waiting - I have been keeping my ear to the ground for you, but nothing livable has come up yet.
Wondering why higher interest rates are taking so freggin long to bust the housing market?
Wondering why there's so much food/commodity inflation leading to 3rd world country wars?
Wondering why the economy is constantly going BOOM and BUST?
You need to watch these hilarious but very educative Hip-Hop Videos:
Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
and the original with 2 Million views, in case you missed it:
"Fear the Boom and Bust" a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem
PS. Ag@$49 and going to $52 by end of next week, you can bet your bottom fiat dollar!
Tomorrow will be a busy day on the PCS because we will see the intersection of the normal conditions being lifted on a Friday, with conditions being lifted on the last business day of the month. Monday will be interesting for many reasons. The normal sales #s and we shall see if the pullback rumours are true for the Vancouver market. If the rumours are true; watch out below.
BTW, I appreciate those who came to my defence with 828. Though he certainly left me with ample ammo, I think you can understand why I choose to ignore this individual.
Our friend 828 has reduced his price from 739 to 729 sometime over the last few days.
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