MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.
Month to date April 2011 (first 4 days of April in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 167 (47)
New Listings: 514 (135)
Active Listings: 4,103 (3,925)
Current sales to new listings ratio: 32%
April 2010 totals
Net Unconditional Sales: 756
New Listings: 1,783
Active Listings: 4,229
Sales to new listings ratio: 42%
Sales to active listings ratio: 18% or 5.6 MOI
The spring listings frenzy is on. If current pace continues (and it likely won't) we'll see 1410 new listings this month. I'll put the final number closer to 1250 as the beginning of the month typically sees more listings than the end, and with a major long weekend (4 days of Easter) happening late April, I think we'll see this number slow down.
Obviously the short-term trend of declining sales volume is continuing. If current sales pace continues, we'll be hard pressed to break 500 sales for April 2011. I'll peg the final sales volume number to be somewhere around 520ish.
There's some evidence to suggest the gap between asking price and sales price is growing. There's also evidence to suggest the gap between sales price and assessed value (as per BC Assessment) is shrinking. Both of these factors suggest prices are falling (despite how VREB calculates average prices). Based on current supply demand ratios I'm tempted to suggest that negative price pressure is slight, not substantial at this time.
Further note: that last post had some significant discussion, which I'm very grateful for. Every time I wanted to publish a new post, I felt like I'd be interrupting the discussion. Thanks to all of you readers and commentators out there!