Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Market data update


This week's VREB Monday numbers thanks to Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

October 2012 month to date (previous weeks in brackets)  
Net Unconditional Sales: 329 {242} [166] (106)
New Listings: 932 {714} [483] (276)
Active Listings: 4640 {4622} [4616] (4565)
Sales to new listings ratio: 35% {34%} [34%] (38%)

October 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 483
New Listings: 1086
Active Listings: 4687
Sales to new listings ratio: 44%
Sales to active listings ratio: 10.3% or 9.7 MOI

The VREB will be tough pressed to produce 400 sales for the month of October... but I have faith they can work magic with numbers and pull it off!

Speaking of magicians, apparently CIBC says there's no chance of anything other than a soft landing for Canadian real estate. At least they're not still telling us prices are headed up next year. I always get a kick out of predictions from CIBC, what they being the experts who leveraged their investors earnings up the wazoo in subprime lending in the US and all--oh yeah, their chief "economist" also famously stated we were headed for $200 oil back then too!--great comic relief from the mundane market those thinkers at CIBC.... 

99 comments:

Introvert said...

Speaking of comic relief, we ought to re-publish some of the stuff folks on this blog have been saying for the last five years--that stuff's pretty funny, too!

Leo S said...

From previous post:

@DavidL Interesting point ... so what are Victoria-born people like myself supposed to do?

Sound like you got in early enough so it's all good. But for young people that didn't, I think the best possible thing they could do is move away. Better work opportunities, cheaper living, and you really should experience living somewhere elsewhere than where you grew up.

@dasmo Weather is an economic fundamental. Cheaper to heat and maintain a house, Not as harsh on vehicles, cheaper wardrobe, less spent on travel etc.

Haha. Now you're really splitting hairs. You want to count the cost of a flooded basement against Victoria?

@koozdra 12 month motorcycle riding season. I love this place.

For sure. Although I'm not much into riding in this rain! What kinda bike do you have?

@Introvert Speaking of comic relief, we ought to re-publish some of the stuff folks on this blog have been saying for the last five years--that stuff's pretty funny, too!

Sure. Pay me a half million bucks a year for my predictions like those economists and I'll be happy to be held to the same standard.

koozdra said...

@Leo

I have a 2006 Yamaha FZ6. I just bought some construction rain gear from Costco for this winter to stay dry. Usually when it's raining I find myself riding alone, the GF isn't as hardcore. Do you ride?

dasmo said...

Is it splitting hairs? The cost of living according to stats can is about 12k more in Alberta than BC....So there goes that 12k you were going to save with the magical 7% compound interest a year....

Just Jack said...

With this slow market, I think there are some good deals to be made.

A recent sale of a heavily forested 8.5 acre property with a 3,000 square foot home in need of updating, located in Metchosin just sold for $550,000.

There are quite a bit of trees that can be harvested and sold. This would go a long way in paying for the updating of the home. And when you have finished selectively clearing the site, the land will be worth more. Because cleared land is more valuable than treed land.

Did I mention the property was assessed for $719,000. Did I mention it was an estate.

So many of us are stuck in our little world that measure 5 city blocks wide by 10 blocks long that we can't see the opportunities out there. We have conditioned ourselves into believing that people envy our possessions and by extension us.

And that's true, because that is one damn fine bike, koozdra.

Leo S said...

@Koozdra. Cool. I've got a Suzuki DR650 kitted out for touring. Did a trip up to Alaska last year, was awesome. I'm not a commuter on the bike though, rather take the bus in the rain!

@dasmo The cost of living according to stats can is about 12k more in Alberta than BC

Source? They must be ignoring housing costs. Also we're talking Calgary/Victoria not Alberta/BC. Most cost of living reviews rate Alberta as very affordable.

dasmo said...

Source is Statistics Canada
BC cost of living

AB cost of living

Leo S said...

@ dasmo. That is household expenditures, not cost of living.

dasmo said...

True, it's what people actually spent instead of an index ...

Leo S said...

Totally different measure. People with more disposable income spend more.

brodahl jahren said...

Det er husholdning utgifter, ikke kostnader ved å leve.
huskatalog

dasmo said...

It's an extremely related measure. If you compare it to income:
Calgary income: $89,490 - AB total expenditures: $84,087 = $5403 in "savings"

Victoria income: $77,820 - BC total expenditures: $72,486 = $5334 in "savings"

So you will be $69 ahead living in Calgary

:-)

Chris said...

Expenditures are higher there, since they get to keep & spend more of what they make. My sis figures she’s around $25,000/yr ahead living in Calgary from savings on gasoline, no PST, health care and income tax. Here, the more you make, the more you’re taxed. There, you pay the same rate no matter how much you make.

Marko said...

Having lived in Kamloops for two years was bad enough. Personally, I would rather live in a 530 sq.ft. condo in Victoria than a 3000 sq.ft. home in Edmonton.

dasmo said...

If you make 85k in AB you pay 8.5k in provincial income tax. In BC you pay 5.873k. Gas isn't that much cheaper there. Not PST is great but you have to spend a lot to save $2627. $37,528 dollars to be exact....So that breaks us even.
How does she get 25k in savings living in Calgary vs here?

Leo S said...

Ugh can't sleep.

It's an extremely related measure. If you compare it to income:
Calgary income: $89,490 - AB total expenditures: $84,087 = $5403 in "savings"

Victoria income: $77,820 - BC total expenditures: $72,486 = $5334 in "savings"


You can't just mash different statistics together and compare them. Province to city, average to median, expenditures vs cost of living. None of that makes any sense.

On the topic of expenditures, it includes categories like gifts, which apparently Albertans spend $200 more on the BCers. So moving to Alberta will make me more generous and I should factor that into my budget?
The biggest difference on the expenditures side is on income taxes. Apparently $16,000 for Alberta VS $10,000 in BC. But think about that for a minute before taking at face value. Does it make sense?

In reality, tax rates are similar. Take your $89,000 income, in Alberta you pay $22,700 in tax, in BC $21,400. Nowhere near $6000 difference.

Leo S said...

On the topic of disposable income:

BC has a sustained and increasing negative savings rate while Alberta's is very high

patriotz said...

In reality, tax rates are similar. Take your $89,000 income

That number is median household income, not individual income on which income tax is based.

Look at a household with two $44.5K incomes. The BC household pays much less income tax.

I do agree that all factors considered the median household in Calgary is ahead, though.

Leo S said...

@patriotz. Good point.
Ok, 2 $44K incomes, in Alberta that household pays about $1660 in additional income tax. Still nowhere near $6000.

Just Jack said...

The Federal, provincial and municipal governments make a windfall of cash on new construction from fees and taxes. That is one reason why the BC government has the $10,000 program for "new" homes and not pre-owned homes.

With the slowing housing market, maybe the government should have a program to demolish homes. That would stimulate the local economy with jobs both in the destruction and construction of a home.

Maybe, one of the good things that might come out of a housing recession is that the various governments may reduce their fees to builders and developers. A savings that would be passed on to the buyer during a housing recession and thereby stimulate local economic activity.

a simple man said...

Live on the prairies for a decade and then lets see you quibble over $5000 difference a year.

Leo S said...

@simple man
Hey, I don't want to live there either. Just countering the weird argument that income minus cost of living is the same there as here. It isn't.

koozdra said...

Speaking of the praires..

Bear Mountain, Troon Ct.
$689,900
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12306469&PidKey=-931195910

Niverville Manitoba, $639,900
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12389916&PidKey=289323408

MC said...

Anecdotal note: People in Alberta spend a heck of a lot more on excessive items than here in Victoria. It's all about the toys in AB, whereas here, I find people aren't so concerned about having the newest and biggest TV, nor quads, boats etc. and seem to vacation less. Especially in the under 35 age group.

Introvert said...

^^
Having lived the first 24 years of my life in Calgary, I would agree with the above.

Marko said...

Speaking of the praires..

I have a client out from Winnipeg shopping for a house in Langford.

Put his home up in Winnipeg for $519k, 26 showings in 7 days, offers held until the following week. Two offers, went for 540k and unconditional.

Looking at the pictures of his home in Winnipeg and what we are looking at in Langford for about 550k-600k there isn't a difference.

The market in Victoria has now been flat or down a bit for years while other cities have continued upwards narrowing the spread.

Marko said...

People in Alberta spend a heck of a lot more on excessive items than here in Victoria. It's all about the toys in AB, whereas here, I find people aren't so concerned about having the newest and biggest TV, nor quads, boats etc. and seem to vacation less. Especially in the under 35 age group.

Sounds like Kelowna.

dasmo said...

Oh sure Leo, spoil my fun....
I spent the first nine years of my life in Alberta. That was enough for me. We used to go to Hawaii every Christmas for a stretch and I would clock watch until the day we left. The smell of that air getting off the plane! Let me tell you, having allergies and living in Alberta....I believe I was one of the reasons my family resettled here. My standard of living was greatly improved by this magical location...The air had a similar effect, without the flowery coconut smell mind you....

a simple man said...

Have some misguided friends trying to buy right now in OB, Fairfield region. They said that the pressure from their RE agent is intense. The agent is calling them all of the time trying to convince them to buy "the house of the week".

Unreal. Unprofessional. But speaks of the desperation.

I told them to get a new realtor.

koozdra said...

"The market in Victoria has now been flat or down a bit for years while other cities have continued upwards narrowing the spread."

I guess Winnipeg is becoming more desirable than Victoria.

Someone tell me again there's no bubble.

dasmo said...

@ a simple man...Tell them to get a new Realtor again, and again. They SHOULD be on your side but rare to find. Maybe suggest Marko!

If they are looking for a detached house in OB and Fairfield I hope they have a substantial and stable income, at least over 100k for the family, and a substantial down payment, around a 100k, or they are going down the wrong path....If I was first time I would be looking VicWest and Esquimalt instead. Those neighbourhoods have more upside potential due to gentrification. VicWest is already well underway. ESQ is next. Grow your equity there. In ten years dockside green, bayview/roundhouse, the railyards, the new bridge will all be done and those things will increase the value of property on that side independent of the general market. Then in ten years trade up...

Leo S said...

Well that's not quite the case. Winnipeg market is hot, but the average SFH price is still only $245,000. So if Marko's client's house is comparable, then he must be moving from Winnipeg's Oak Bay given that his house was worth double the average. Maybe there is a mosquito-free region of that city we don't know of??

Marko said...

Unreal. Unprofessional. But speaks of the desperation.

I told them to get a new realtor.


Car salesperson tactics when someone is spending half a million or more is not the right way to go.

Marko said...

Well that's not quite the case. Winnipeg market is hot, but the average SFH price is still only $245,000. So if Marko's client's house is comparable, then he must be moving from Winnipeg's Oak Bay given that his house was worth double the average. Maybe there is a mosquito-free region of that city we don't know of??

Area called Martlon? Varsity View is the smaller sub area.

Is the average Winnipeg home similar in size?

Marko said...

"The average house price here is $427,000 which is a 2.9 percent increase over 2011.

Read more: http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/calgary-housing-prices-above-average-1.1015975#ixzz2AuFo7EDE
"

And we are at about $580,000 with likely much higher development costs due to geographic constraints.

Not a huge spread.

Dave said...

If you want something that will hold it's value over the next 20 years, it would be best to buy a larger downtown/VWsonhees condo into weakness, say 3-4 years from now. The typical Vic house is in for a long slide.
What's going to happen to home prices in Canada? Despite all of the analyses and hypotheses in the media, the answer may not be based on historical real estate prices, interest rates or ratios. The answers may lie, to a great extent, in our demographics.
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/10/30/how-house-prices-depend-on-demographics/

In addition, what's old peoples' #1 concern? specially in high crime cities like Vic? They never seemed to mention security.

koozdra said...

Martlon is comparable to Oak bay.

edmontonian016 said...

I have been lurking on this blog for a long time, but have never felt the need to comment. I am compelled to comment today to dispel some misconceptions some of you have about life in Alberta and why some of us choose to live here.
I live in Edmonton and have a house (fully paid off) in an expensive neighborhood, yet I am a real estate bear. In 2006, my husband accepted a very lucrative job in Victoria. We came down to see the city; his company paid for our trip. While I thought Victoria was very beautiful, I had reservations. I found the city was boring; the shopping was terrible; and I found it depressing. When we brought our two teenaged children to see Victoria, they absolutely hated the thought of living there. They said that this was a place for “old people” and found it to be dead!!
I too missed the vibrancy of Edmonton. Edmonton, though it may look ugly in the winter with its piles of snow, yet it is a “happening” place. I was not sure about moving and uprooting our lives in Edmonton, so we decided that my husband would move while we got used to the idea of an eventual move to Victoria. Three years of travelling back and forth still did not convince me to move. So my husband ended up accepting a job back in Edmonton. While I really enjoyed our trips to Victoria which were about 4-5 times a year (my husband would fly home every two weeks), I could not think of moving there.
The reason I frequent this blog is to stay informed because, I know there is going to be a correction in Victoria and Vancouver and when that happens, I plan to pick up a second home to escape the Alberta winter when we retire. But I cannot think of permanently moving to Victoria.

Leo S said...

@edmontonian016

Thank you! So many people from Victoria/Vancouver can't seem to fathom that not everyone wants to live here.

Marko said...

How many of us want to buy a second place in Edmonton thought?

reasonfirst said...

the shopping was terrible ,

the horror...the horror...

(meant to be a light-hearted jab)

a simple man said...

@edmontonian016

You are not alone - I have know quite a few people that have moved here only to return to the prairies shortly thereafter. Different strokes for different folks.

I also know a lot of my friends back in the prairies would not even consider moving here - too isolated they say, and too expensive.

dasmo said...

Interesting view of Victoria.

edmontonian016 said...

Marko, I don't see the relevance of your comment.

The point I am trying to make is that I and many others like me wouldn't give up Edmonton for Victoria. As for buying a second home, Victoria is just one of the places in the running. We are also looking at Vancouver, and we looked at the States too. The only reason we have hesitated to buy in the States is (1) tax liabilities and (2) the more than likely price correction in BC. Our preference is to have something in Canada because of taxation/inheritance issues.

We will buy where ever we get the most value for our money with the least amount of hassles.

There are so many places to chose from for a second home (I have even looked at Greece), but very few places in the world right now where there is a vibrant economy.

a simple man said...

edmontonian016 - please tell all your friends how bad it is here!

edmontonian016 said...

I should have added - a vibrant economy and a great quality of life though you people in Victoria may not believe that.

Just Jack said...

Shopping okay - but have you seen how many funeral chapels we have to choose from!

People are dying to live here.


It isn't that I don't like living in Victoria. I just don't like the superior attitude some people have. Why do they feel that they have to piss on some one else or where they live. This is not just a Victoria thing, I find a lot of BC people have this attitude.

Maybe because they feel inadequate being located at the end of the world. As most of the decisions regarding the rest of the world are made before they get out of bed in the morning. Even the next Prime Minister of Canada will have been decided before the average BC'er gets a chance to cast their vote.

In relation to most of the rest of Canada, BC'ers are still seen as just Cowboys and Indians.

Introvert said...

I found the city was boring; the shopping was terrible...

Being an introvert, and a homebody, I love Victoria because it's a sleepy town.

Also, if a place has good shopping opportunities, I try to avoid that place. Edmonton, Langford...

I don't like consumerism; I'm repulsed by the Uptown complex and will never shop in that Wal-Mart.

Introvert said...

Or any Wal-Mart, for that matter.

Dave said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dave said...

edmontonian

The vacation or 'second home' buying trend you speak of
"...will reach a peak by around 2013."

http://www.parksvillebeachclub.com/images/graph.gif

Then it's downhill, as baby boomers begin selling their second homes to help fund retirement. I mention it since you said "inheritance issues" -- in other words you're viewing it as an investment.

patriotz said...

Well the recreational/retirement RE market in BC says it peaked in 2008 or so.

edmontonian016 said...

Dave, our second home and primary home is something we would like to pass on to our children when we die. Whatever value they get out of the two is a bonus for them.

Just Jack said...

Something that I have noticed, is that those that have been born here are somewhat isolationists. The Islanders are different people, very reserved, stand offish, and independent.

The other thing that amazes me about Victoria is how much dope there is around. On most summer days the city has a cloud of cannabis hovering over it.

I think if you want to attract more of the tech industry here, don't talk about the weather or income - talk about how easy it is to score some bud.

Some of you may have clicked onto the youtube video of the woman singing about Vancouver. Well, that's how we are perceived by most of Canada. As some wasted Cougar in a fur coat iterating the word Vancouver as a bush plane lands in the harbor.

Vancouver, Vancouver, Vancouver...

Will someone throw a can of red paint on her and stop her singing!

hap pychucky said...

JJ

If I was a dog I would want to live in Victoria. Dogs have it better here than most people do around the world. I am still cannot believe the place i can get my dog into here without even a comment.

Just Jack said...

I've heard that line many times before.

We're buying it for our kids.

Cut the crap.

The kids have nothing to do with it.

At least try to be honest about it, and stop rationalizing a bad decision by implying that your actions are akin to Mother Theresa saving the poor.

It's like your Dad has this cool hot rod in the garage and telling you someday it will be yours. Then two days before you get your license he sells it.

That's just friggin cruel, man.

hap pychucky said...

JJ

I actually tell my kids the houses are going to my dogs. My kids are sol. They do not appreciate that.

Just Jack said...

No, dogs do not have it better here than most people in the world.

You gotta get out more often Ha pychuky and stop having conversations with your neighbor's demon possessed dog.

axeman said...

I lived in Williams Lake, Snow and cold, hot in summer. And bored stiff.Never been to Edmonton, but Calgary seems to be a very happenning place. born and raised in Vancouver. not thanks, snow, no thanks. Victoria was very clikey at first, but it beats the hell out of WL, and its not massive like Vancouver, lower mainland.

After 10 years it became home, but its not for everyone. It rains a lot in the winter, its almost better to have snow under your feet than rain, but still, I hate the cold. 20 Below type cold that is, I will take rain any time.

Just Jack said...

Bill's Puddle

Yeah, you're right that's bad. I understand they band the sale of razor blades and Leonord Cohen music during the winter.

Que the Vancouver girl singing...

Williams Lake, Williams Lake, Williams Lake...

You can use the same bush plane footage.

MC said...

Another anecdotal note: People sure do like to talk about Alberta around here. I rarely hear talk about BC when in Alberta, except about house boating, and maybe how much they hate the Canucks (but not as much as the Leafs).

Douggie said...

those that have been born here are somewhat isolationists. The Islanders are different people, very reserved, stand offish, and independent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_affective_disorder

Winter in Canada is cold wet and miserable, and Victoria is certainly no exception. You will spend a lot more time indoors, and can combat this via sunlight (prairies) or pot (vic).

edmontonian016 also missed that a different union is striking every month, a "minimalist" approach to infrastructure, and that a decent daytrip away from Victoria is pretty much impossible (no offence to Nanaimo & Sooke.)

Don't even get me started about which form of rapacious sales tax we prefer...

MC said...

^yes!

Though, it is damn beautiful here, there is no denying that!

Douggie said...

Is it though? More than Banff? More than Waterton?

MC said...

Less mosquitoes than Banff, and Waterton is very beautiful, but Victoria is more so for me. Plus Waterton basically shuts down for the winter does it not? Hard place to make a living there.

dasmo said...

"a different union is striking every month, a "minimalist" approach to infrastructure, and that a decent daytrip away from Victoria is pretty much impossible"

what the????

Introvert said...

I'll just leave this here:

Calgary

Leo S said...

Hey look its sunny there!

dasmo said...

in the end you love your home...wherever it is even if you dont live there. if you don't you are probably miserable.
I was born in Alberta but Victoria is my home. So nothing anyone can say will make me hate it. Same goes for people who call Alberta home. All that aside, the fact that Victoria is on the list of second homes after all that says it all ;-)

Marko said...

Thursday November 1, 2012 8:00am:

October October
2012 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 373 483
New Listings: 1,068 1,086
Active Listings: 4,876 4,687

Please Note
Left Column: stats for the entire month from this year
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

a simple man said...

And we silently ascend past 13 months of inventory.

Thanks for the stats, Marko.

dasmo said...

I wonder what VREB will come up with on those stats. Probably focus on prices remaining stable....

a simple man said...

I wonder if vreb will very carefully write this next release based on all the national-level attention they received on their last one.

Getting harder to spin all the time - can only use the "wait and see" statement for so long in a declining market.

Introvert said...

Probably focus on prices remaining stable....

Is that fact not significant?

That prices haven't collapsed is a big stick in the craw of the bears.

All signs point to prices nosediving, and yet...

Just Jack said...

Which can be broken down further

Sales
Saanich Peninsula
single family sales 20
condo sales 17

Westshore
38 houses
22 condos

Victoria districts
121 houses
75 condos

And breaking down listings to house sales in the Victoria core with Victoria city having 158 listings and 22 sales

158/22 (7.2 MOI)Victoria City
7/0 (....)Victoria West
102/17 (6.0) Oak Bay
36/5 (7.2)Esquimalt
54/6 (9.0) View Royal
290/49 (5.9)Saanich East
125/22 (5.7) Saanich West

Assuming that 5 to 7 months of inventory indicates a balanced market, Victoria house prices should be stable.

a simple man said...

thanks JJ!

Just Jack said...

For those that are tracking condominiums in the core districts there are now 776 condos listed with 75 sales last month or 10.3 months of inventory.

Condos are a bit tricky to follow because of so many proposed units. If instead we look at pre-owned condominiums there are 683 listed and 65 sold or 10.5 months of inventory. That appears to me, that we have the beginnings of a glut in condominiums.

That's good for those that want to buy a condominium in the next few months. Sharpen up those talons and try some low ball offers, especially on those court and estate sales. Or maybe you're renting a condominium that you might consider buying in the next few months. It may be time to give that landlord a call either to buy or some rent concessions. I don't think many condo landlords would like to have their suite go vacant in this market.

Anon said...

First time poster so I may be missing something.

We have 13 MOI but most (all?) of JJ's stats for different areas are below 13.

How can every area or segment be below average? The data is being cut differently somewhere.

To all the analysts on this blog - keep up the good work...





Anon said...

Re: my previous post:

Put another way, what area is dragging the average up?

I know Sooke is high as are the Gulf Islands, etc. But do they move the overall average MOI needle that much?

Just Jack said...

13 months of inventory is for EVERYTHING.

What I am showing are the segments of the market that I think most of the viewers on this blog are interested in.

I'm not showing the Gulf Islands or townhouses or manufactured homes or vacant lots, etc., etc.

By doing this, I think I show why some people, like Totoro, still feel that the market is stable and prices have not fallen dramatically. Because, in their neighborhood that may be quite factual.

Think of this as being late May of 1918, the Americans have just landed in France, and the Boche are now surrounded and retreating back to the Hindenburg line (tweed curtain). The question is, do they stop and fight back and prices rise once more or do they give up and Oak Bay falls.




hap pychucky said...

JJ interesting post on the breakdown. Explains better what is actually happening to SFH. thanks

Dave said...

Vreb's condo graph sure fell out of bed in October. The bottom rungs of the property ladder are breaking fast now.

http://www.vreb.org/pdf/vrebgap.pdf

Simon said...

I have lived in Edmonton for almost a decade. Life there was terrible for me in terms of outdoor activities. In the summer you get mosquitoes, and in the winter, you get white stuff piling up for one metre until the end of April. The trees there are short, not even mentioning views like mountains and oceans. If I have to fight for a living and it is the only choice there, I don't mind living there for a period of time. But if I have a choice of living in Victoria, oh, I would run away from Edmonton or most of the other citues in Canada as fast as I can. The average temperature is higher here. This have a definite effect on certain people who are genetically with diabetic disease. I do a lot of easy exercises here. Although can do a lot of exerciese in Edmonton too. But it was hard and boring kind, especially for people who don't enjoy ice skating.

Anyone one mentioned BC people live longer? I understand that people don't want to move away from friends in their home town. Shopping in Edmonton has more freedom, but taking a walk more freely in Victoria is far more important for many people like me.

Introvert said...

Edmonton's not amazing??

Dave said...

All of us -- owner and renter -- should try to keep in mind the brighter side of sliding prices. Imagine how innovative and strong our economy will be years from now, when people aren't handing over half their wages to housing and instead are able to invest in worthwhile endeavours.

Just Jack said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
HouseHuntVictoria said...

VREB release is awesome! I don't know how they did it, but they reported 400 residential sales for the month. I called it. How do I get these ideas? It's like a gift, you know? It's like I can't control it.

hap pychucky said...

i read it says 373

HouseHuntVictoria said...

It says 400 in the quick reference stas units sold column here no? http://vreb.org/mls_statistics/current_statistics.html

Just Jack said...

I don't know if this what they do. but for me to get about the same numbers as they have I have to back date sales by a week.

So the sales are not from the first to the 31st but from September 24th to October 24th plus or minus a day.

Which makes sense, as it is good approximation of what the month may actually be, since a lot of the sales that occur in the last week have not been entered by the agents.

Anyway, that's my take on it.

Just Jack said...

With these low sale volumes the average makes as much sense as men having nipples.

The median isn't much better because the wide distribution of prices.

That leaves re-sales of the same home, and there are so, so few of them.

As we enter into the winter market, the volume of sales will drop further, this makes it difficult to determine where prices are. We are basically flying in the dark without accurate gauges. We know where we've been and a rough idea of where we are going. But,not until the night lifts around March next year will we know if were in for a safe landing or we are out of fuel over the Atlantic.

Average life expectancy of the pilots and their crews in WW1 was 45 days. They were not issued with parachutes, because the Generals thought it would demoralize them. And you thought your boss was an arse.

Just Jack said...

Some nice prices showing up for condominiums in Victoria. Like a one-bedroom on Lee Street for $135,000.

The complex has an age restriction of 18 years, but you can have a dog. As long as the dog years add up to 18 too.



Leo S said...

@HHV. The caching of those images is really messed up. You are likely still seeing last months. You need to force a refresh:

Windows: ctrl + F5
Mac/Apple: Apple + R or command + R
Linux: F5

HouseHuntVictoria said...

@LeoS... it's inconsequential anyway...

I'd been saving up that movie quote for a while, disappointed no one caught it yet.

HouseHuntVictoria said...

@Leo, you working on the Month data post?

info said...

Just Jack - your input to this blog is appreciated by many.

Victoria's housing market has been in correction mode for some time, yet there are those who continue to deny this. It will only get more interesting as this correction/crash continues.

The OSFI regulations have now been implemented. This will only add weight to the already sinking market. No more cash-back mortgages. It has also mandated tighter lending regulations and requires stricter appraisals.

In terms of numbers, obviously average prices are not at all indicative of what is happening in the market when there are so few sales. The same can be said for the median price.

It is more helpful to look at the Teranet-National Bank index, although that can be easily misunderstood. An index drop of 1.5% does not mean that the average price dropped 1.5% in that month, which most people think. The index is compared to itself.

Just Jack's input is very valuable. A one-bedroom condo for $135,000 on Lee Street tells us a lot about where the market is right now and where it is headed.

koozdra said...

"B.C. Real Estate Association chief economist Cameron Muir is optimistic that a growing population, strong full-time job growth and continuing low interest rates will boost sales in coming months."

The lenses on Cameron Muir's rose coloured glasses must be so thick that he can't see anything anymore.

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/October+houses+sales+down+cent+from+year/7485922/story.html

Simon said...

I enjoy reading this website very much. I especially enjoy reading JJ's humourous comments. Thanks.

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