Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Wednesday's Tuesday Monday Market Update


MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

October 2012 month to yesterday  
Net Unconditional Sales: 106
New Listings: 276
Active Listings:  4565
Sales to new listings ratio: 38%

October 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 483
New Listings: 1086
Active Listings: 4687
Sales to new listings ratio: 44%
Sales to active listings ratio: 10.3% or 9.7 MOI

Sales to new listings generally starts low and increases throughout the month, as most of the expired listings are posted again in the first week.   October is generally the month that inventory starts to seriously drop for the winter, so it will be interesting to see how the MOI looks at the end of the month.

It seems the VREB took my hint of blaming the weather for the slow sales.  Well I saw a light drizzle come down today and there's more rain in the forecast, so I expect a big jump in sales going forward.  All those sun-burned would-be buyers are about to come out of the woodwork.

109 comments:

Leo S said...

And here we go. Bidding war on 776 Lily Ave. Sold for $30,000 over ask in 4 days. Thank god for the rain!

HachiRoku said...

Haircuts!

We've got a sentimental interest in this one (MLS®: 314120 which has tatami mats an all).

It was on the market last year for $715K but didn't sell. Then a few weeks back it was put back on the market for $649K. I just checked today and it is $629K.

What other haircuts are folks seeing?

koozdra said...

I'll just repost these for some of our bubble denier friends.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/potentially-flawed-data-used-by-banks-and-lenders-bump-up-house-prices/article4603237/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/is-canada-immune-from-a-housing-bubble/article4585963/

totoro victoria said...

I like 314120 but it is extremely Japanese. Huge floor space and 4 bed 3 bath. Have to be a specific buyer who is also ok with being on finlayson.

totoro victoria said...
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totoro victoria said...

314120 was originally 990 000.....

HachiRoku said...

314120 was originally 990 000.....

Now that is haircut! You think the sellers would have learned by now.

koozdra said...

The delusion continues..

Assessed: $741,000
Asking: $840,000

"BRAND NEW PRICE REDUCTION!"

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12245996&PidKey=-1810022319

totoro victoria said...

I think 314120 is a very good property for a fairly good price. Suits a suite. Only drawback IMO is area. Folks who built it were likely Japanese. Very expensive traditional features and upgrades more typical of uplands albeit a bit dated.. If it was on the landowner or camosun slope I wld get out the shopping cart.

Watching and waiting said...

314120 was rented to students up to the end of spring. I was in the house at the time purchasing something advertised on usedvic. Basically elderly owner built for his spouse of Asian heritage- very neat place inside- be a bitch to heat though. I asked the student how much they paid for hydro (they were in the midst of moving out). He said the owner covered that. The house has an authentic Japanese living room replete with a hori-kotatsu for those cold winter eves.

totoro victoria said...

Landowner ... Darn autocorrect

totoro victoria said...

I miss kotatsu - not enough to give up central heating though.

totoro victoria said...

Damn... Autocorrect strikes again!

Watching and waiting said...

you can always have one shipped here then you get to play warm footsies with your in-laws over drinks/otsumami- ok bit off topic here.

totoro victoria said...

Rented to students.... Seems so unsuited for a student rental on the main. Tatami and koi ponds are high maintenance. This house might make a good b&b or vacation rental.

totoro victoria said...

That is disturbing watching and waiting.... But we are off topic :)

Watching and waiting said...

the student was saying the koi pond is about 4 feet deep. Not kid friendly.

totoro victoria said...

But very koi friendly - gotta be a specific buyer

HachiRoku said...

Yeah it's the only way to have a koi pond in Victoria (built in a courtyard) or else the critters come a feeding all the time. :)

totoro victoria said...

Carp are pretty tasty

patriotz said...

314120 was originally 990 000..Now that ($629,000) is haircut!

Not from the assessment, which is $653,000.

And I would think an oddball property such as this would be likely to sell for a bigger discount from assessment in a weak market than a generic one. It's not going to sell for over $600K for sure.

totoro victoria said...

Well, open house on 314120 this weekend for those that are interested.

arfenarf said...

In what feels like a post from the world turned upside-down, I just lost out on a multiple-offer scenario for a charming little gem of a house... but the sellers priced smart and had a handful of bids in their hand after the first showing.

Even though I'm sorry it didn't go through, it was very interesting to see what happens when good value does appear.

Back to the sidelines. It's months before I have to decide whether to renew this lease, so I will watch and wait. (And, under my breath, mutter invocations to the God of Collapsed Financing Conditions) :)

a simple man said...

I love that Ron addresses my pet peeve - the %age of asking stat - that and the average DOM. he says the average DOM is more like 180 and houses selling closer to 85% of asking.

Leo S said...

@arfenarf. Yes even in this market the well-priced properties move very quickly. Same for us, we very nearly bought this place for over ask in a multiple offer situation. It's still up, but likely has another accepted offer already in place.

koozdra said...

Buying a house now is like polishing the brass on the titanic.

Al + TOH said...

Leo S
Good value on 1762 Howroyd, big land, very good location and solid house. Assessment is at $614K, $114K above the asking price, must has been set up for multiple offers.

totoro victoria said...

Yes, agree about Howroyd. Large lot, suite and good location in general and looks in good condition. Priced low.

reasonfirst said...

"I'll just repost these for some of our bubble denier friends."

Is it just me or does anyone else think that the comments on MSM real estate articles have gone from a somewhat balanced bear/bull ratio to almost overwhelmingly bearish (over the past couple of years).



dasmo said...

"Buying a house now is like polishing the brass on the titanic."
Really? Victoria real estate will just sink to the bottom and take everyone with it until it is dissolved by salt water and creatures of the sea and subsequently documented in cheesy movies and cool undersea documentaries by the same director?

A bit over dramatic I think...

a simple man said...

Tons of comments on the greater fool blog today from Victorians - worth a look.

Anyone from here comment there?

totoro victoria said...

false dilemma's add zing to any blog.

koozdra said...

Garth filters his comments. I'm sure the bubble deniers are posting there too.

totoro victoria said...

Garth, hasn't he been predicting disaster for four years now? At some point you will hit a down cycle.

I notice that a lot of the posters tend to post in absolutes and there seems to be an underlying superiority complex backing everything.

The comments tend to lack balance. I find that blog irritating and don't follow it.

koozdra said...

I like Garth's blog. He may be a bit zany but don't be so quick to discount his message.

a simple man said...

I mostly just read the comments - and used control-F to find only the comments that mention victoria - makes a quick 2 minute read most days.

Just Jack said...
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Just Jack said...

The sale on Lily for $30,000 over asking price in just 4 days shows that there are bargain hunters out there who are willing to bid against each other.

That home was originally purchased back in 1990 for $187,500. That's a 2.56 times increase in value. But, the median price had risen from $174,000 back then to $577,900 today or a 3.32 times increase? And the last sale of a similar home along Lily went for $585,000 back in August 2011.

So, what's happening?

Is our market worse than what is being reported?

It certainly appears that our market has become shallow and dysfunctional for most municipalities.

Al + TOH said...

Garth is a smart guy, but there are lots noises on his site, and one has to use his/her own head to filter things out.

We read the blog once every week or a few weeks, listened to him on what made sense (e.g. sold our Victoria rental house at end of 2009, bought AZ condo at end of 2011); but debated (on the blog) with him when he said that "people in their mid 30's with $100K saved are doomed."

totoro victoria said...

I agree with buying the Arizona rental in 2011. I contemplated that too, but disliked the tax implications.

As for Garth, way too polarized and bombastic for me. I'm okay to sort it all out myself for myself and see where it lands.

People with $100 000 in their 30s are doomed??... my point exactly...

dasmo said...

I think our market has hit sanity with a dash of boredom. After years of hype and HGTV crap we are all tired of it.

On the run up if you had a piece of crap someone would buy it and flip it. In 2003, when I bought the first time around, I watched a tiny, bug infested piece of crap house start at 143k. After sitting for months and months, the spark ignited and it sold. Then it went back on the market for 180k a couple months later with nothing done. Then about a year or so later for 240k with a paint job. This kind of action inspired people to buy anything for whatever the price.

Now if you have a piece of crap, you have a piece of crap. You can't price it otherwise. It should be priced as per it's lot value plus building value. If it's a tear down, then lot value only. If it needs work then lot value plus depreciated building value.

Anyone who looks in this town knows full well there is a lot of crap out there...

If you have a good house in a good location it will sell for a good price.

koozdra said...

"Now if you have a piece of crap, you have a piece of crap."

Most of the people with the crap are the first time home buyers and investors. This group is also the most sensitive to declines because of low down payments. Hopefully they don't have to sell anytime soon. Those who do...

DavidL said...

... are in deep crap.

dasmo said...

First time home buyers will be fine as long as rates don't sky rocket and they are overextended. They can polish their turd and go on with life as they have been. ten years from now they will have equity and most likely be in a good position. The flipper can burn for all I care. They are more irritating than the overpriced crap. They spray paint the turd gold in the hopes of fooling people. Anyone who hunts here also sees this mine field. I would much rather buy the piece of crap for the right price and make it my own that the overpriced, polished turd from a flipper. If they all go bankrupt in this market you will only hear applause from me....

Marko said...

SFH average and median running super high to start the month....660k+/580k+

Condos super low with an average of 257k.

koozdra said...

"condo offers a main condo and a separate "lock-off" studio suite"

I've heard of houses with suites but here's something new. A condo with a suite.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12336845&PidKey=453826839

hap pychucky said...

It has a separate title. Is it not just 2 condos being sold.

How does that hotel up there stay in business?

Introvert said...

That home was originally purchased back in 1990 for $187,500. That's a 2.56 times increase in value. But, the median price had risen from $174,000 back then to $577,900 today or a 3.32 times increase? And the last sale of a similar home along Lily went for $585,000 back in August 2011.

It's another "JJ Special" of which I am so fond. So-and-so didn't fare so well against such-and-such. Too bad for them.

Also, thanks for changing your profile picture. I was getting a little tired of Elmo. But I did think that some of your comments were written by a guy with a hand up his butt.

LeoM said...

Marko said: "SFH average and median running super high to start the month....660k+/580k+"

Marko, I don't believe any statistics or statements that comes from the VREB without supporting numbers. If the VREB supplies the data rather than just the average & median so I can do my own calculations, then I would have some faith in the VREB.

When I see the high average and median numbers, I see beyond the rhetoric. To me those numbers just confirm in my mind that the VREB misleads people and the real interpretation of those numbers means that smart people are selling and smart people tend to own expensive houses and expensive houses then to push the average and median numbers higher.

The real meaningful information is hidden by the VREB. For example, how many of the houses that comprised those statistics were sold sometime within the past 6 years and what is today's selling price compared to the previous selling price?

The VREB manipulates statistics for their own benefit.

"He (VREB) uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp posts; for support rather than illumination." -Andrew Lang

koozdra said...

The average and median being high are expected. The low end of the market is stalling out. The top of the will follow with a lag.

totoro victoria said...

Might be better to wait until the end of the month before crying wolf over a 10-day median :)

CS said...

"SFH average and median running super high to start the month....660k+/580k+"

There was an OB WF property for $3 million plus, which would have had a positive impact on the average.

Leo S said...

@LeoM If the VREB supplies the data rather than just the average & median so I can do my own calculations, then I would have some faith in the VREB.

You're being way too suspicious. There is no benefit to VREB to fudge these numbers. The numbers vary wildly because of small sample sizes.

patriotz said...

"Buying a house now is like polishing the brass on the titanic."
Really?


Well, a lot of people who've gotten on board in the last few years are already under water, and there are plenty more to come.

But there is a difference - at least the Titanic had lifeboats for 1/2 the passengers.

dasmo said...

rolls his eyes....

Just Jack said...

As Introverted stated:

"It's another "JJ Special" of which I am so fond. So-and-so didn't fare so well against such-and-such. Too bad for them."

I assure you Introvert, that is NOT what I am writing about. The point being made was how the median is lagging re-sales.

It really is that simple. Take a pill.

Introvert said...

Gulp.

dasmo said...

Resales are a good gauge as what is happening right now. Hell the place I bought bought early this year was 50k less than it was bought for in 2008...

Just Jack said...

Most on this blog seem to be concentrating on the core areas, like Victoria and Oak Bay.

Some may be interested on what is happening more than 8 miles out from the down town core.

There are now 610 homes for sale in the Western Communities and only 48 homes have sold in the last 30 days.

To get a quick sale in Langford, like the property on Desmond, you have to sell at 10 percent less than the median price for similar homes would suggest.

That vendors are willing to take a significant cut, in order to make a quick sale, suggests to me that sellers are pessimistic of the future housing market.

Marko said...

Marko, I don't believe any statistics or statements that comes from the VREB without supporting numbers. If the VREB supplies the data rather than just the average & median so I can do my own calculations, then I would have some faith in the VREB.

That wasn't a statement from the VREB, just my own observation based on the SFH sales we've had so far this month.

EagerBuyer(Not) said...

Introvert,

Sometimes life is what you get while you are making plans. This happy owner renovated the house inside and out and then had to move for job relocation. Only 35 DOM and already two price reductions (45K down from original asking)

Owner is motivated and wants an offer

JustWatching said...

Will Victoria condo developers get squeezed too?

Toronto bankers put the squeeze on Vancouver real-estate developers

As an example, the veteran condo marketer said that prior to the global financial meltdown in 2008, banks in Toronto would demand that Vancouver builders presell 25 to 40 percent of the units in a project before they could get financing. In those days, these same bankers might require that each buyer put down as little as 10 percent of the purchase price.

Nowadays, McNeill said, it’s more likely that bankers in Toronto will demand that each depositor fork over 15 to 20 percent up front, and that 50 percent of the units are presold.

“Half of them have to be sold to legitimate consumers who reside in Canada and who have ID,” he insisted. “They will actually scrutinize every contract and look at the IDs. And every single contract must stipulate that the consumer must put down 15 to 20 percent cash. That money has to be sitting in a third-party trust account—and the banks will actually check all of those details before they’ll lend a penny to that developer.”

Just Jack said...

When I read an article about how the banks are tightening up their lending policies, to what I would consider prudent lending practices, I wonder...


What the hell were they doing before!

Animal Spirit said...

Median and average price may be running high, however the listing price to assessed price has been very low for the last two months. Data is too early to show anything conclusive for October, however for SFH <575, core areas + Brentwood Bay, we are running around 96% list price to assessed price. Sept was 98% and through the summer we were at 100%. Median sales price for the <575K range has jumped around like a yoyo attached to a kitten.

Sales price to list price is fairing even worse - 94% in Sept, 91% so far in Oct.

Once another week has passed and there is more data, I may pull a post together on this.

ArtVandelay said...

Mega-yacht marina gets final green light

Transport Canada has approved plans for a large-yacht marina on the north side of Victoria's middle harbour, between Lime Bay and Songhees Point.

Mega-yacht marina gets final green light (CTV Video)

Leo S said...

Once another week has passed and there is more data, I may pull a post together on this.

Please do. Price/assessed also very weak for the low end. Hasn't seemed to affect the higher end SFHs though.

EagerBuyer(Not) said...

There are still some "deals" left in Vancouver...

Photos: Vancouver’s 20 cheapest homes

CS said...

Three new listings in OB today, all price reductions.

But look at this:

MLS®: 315735

Price slashed by over 50% from the original asking, which if I recall correctly was over $20 m.

Introvert said...

Introvert,

Sometimes life is what you get while you are making plans. This happy owner renovated the house inside and out and then had to move for job relocation. Only 35 DOM and already two price reductions (45K down from original asking)


I'm not sure what your point is.

Not all jobs are relocatable. Some jobs are even quite secure, believe it or not.

Sinking tonnes of money into a house that you know you might have to sell for job-related reasons is arguably foolish--and all the more so in a buyer's market.

dasmo said...

@CS I wish I was filthy rich. That is a damn good deal!

not yet said...

isn't that 315735 the same place that Cam G. helicoptered in some "Ham" buyers to view with much TV coverage?

Just Jack said...

Assessment to Sales Ratios for the last 30 days broken down by areas.

0.98 Victoria
1.01 Oak Bay
1.01 Esquimalt
0.97 View Royal
0.97 Saanich East
0.95 Saanich West

I don't know if this is helpful for those that track this stuff. With so few sales, the data population varies from a low of 6 sales in Esquimalt to a high of 52 for Saanich East. Assessed values are as of July 1, 2011.

The closest thing to a sure bet for 2013 is that BC Assessment will be lowering their value estimates and the municipalities will be increasing their tax rates.

Leo S said...

Sinking tonnes of money into a house that you know you might have to sell for job-related reasons is arguably foolish--and all the more so in a buyer's market.


I don't think anyone is doing this on purpose. Life happens. It's just a risk you have to be aware of when you're buying in a down market. Even if you intend to keep the place for 30 years you have to be aware that you might have to sell at a loss and have enough equity on hand to do so.

Just Jack said...

Dasmo, how do you figure that this is a damn good deal?

8.9 million is incredibly outlandish for a property in Metchosin.

The highest price ever paid for a waterfront home in Metchosin was 2.7 million.

But this shows you the difference between cost and market. The agent says that the home is listed for a fraction of its costs. Well, I'd like to see the bills on that one. Especially when the land was bought for 1.7 million. That leaves over 7.2 million for a 10,700 square foot home. Or costs in excess of $675 per square foot to build?

Just Jack said...

“No poor bastard ever won at real estate by selling at a loss. He won it by making other bastards sell at a loss.”

A bastardized quote based on General George S Patton.

Introvert said...

The other day on B.C. Almanac the topic of "rent vs. buy" was discussed.

The conversation begins at about 22:30 into the October 9th podcast, which is available here.

patriotz said...

Not all jobs are relocatable. Some jobs are even quite secure, believe it or not.

When the guy next door has to sell his house because he's lost his job or has been transferred, that affects the market price of every house on the block.

Just Jack said...

Certainly has been an increase in sales on Salt Spring Island.

Why not, prices in some areas have now rolled back to 2004 price levels, like the house on a half acre along Malaview that sold in May 2004 for $298,000 and has just now re-sold for $275,000.

But, I think this is a "bear trap". Just as so many on this blog have said, that if prices were to roll back to those earlier times they would start buying real estate in Victoria.

The correction has only just begun, to buy on a "feeling" that prices can not get any lower is to disregard 250 years of economic theory.


koozdra said...

Just Jack one slight correction. It's bull trap.

koozdra said...

Oh, never mind, I see what you're saying.

koozdra said...

Assessed: $358,820
Price: $998,000

Old assessement?

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12146284&PidKey=-1397329443

dasmo said...

I could see that property costing that much and more to build. Look at the insanity! Architectural design and drawings alone would have cost a fortune. There is also all the landscaping, the guest house the roads etc... Not that it matters to argue the value of a monster like that ;-)

dasmo said...

WTF Kooz? you can sure find them... That one is going to sit I think.

Renter said...

@Koozdra

It's on an acreage, so I bet that it has an agricultural evaluation as the assessment. If someone wanted to keep that tax rate, they'd have to keep some livestock or something on site.

koozdra said...

What's happening over at 1870 McKenzie? Eight condos for sale in the same building. Are the "students will pay my mortgage" people trying to get out?

Leo S said...

The sales bump seems to have been short lived. So far this week it seems we're back to slow.

CS said...

Re: good deal at $675 per square foot.

At the price it looks to me like a good deal -- if that's the kind of place you want to live in: with a massive cantilevered concrete thingy and exciting cascading water feature. Also, probably the nicest waterfront farm in the region.

But I'd just feel lost in a dining room that appears designed to accommodate dozens.

Just Jack said...

CS said "But I'd just feel lost in a dining room that appears designed to accommodate dozens."

You could have all the HHV contributers over for dinner.:-)

S2 (JJ's wife)

Just Jack said...

The $675 is only for the building.

The land is extra.

dasmo said...

@CS all joking aside, the scale is just too crazy big no matter how rich I was. The site is fantastic and I like the modern design though.

The place looks insane with nothing held back, I don't think they built it for $250/sq...

If you could afford the simple upkeep of a property like this, 8.9 million wouldn't seem like much I'm sure. But if you want to do the math on it you would need to go beyond a simple $ per square foot, this isn't a condo.

Look at the property on the CRD map. The entire 64 acres has a lawn LOL. There is another house on site, a tennis court. They could be lying that they are selling the place for less than it cost to build but I don't think so. Just that 64 acre lawn with irrigation cost 200k I bet....That's not including any fill they needed to level the area out.

dasmo said...

If you want to balk at cost per sq then do the math on the Capital City Centre condos. Now that's overpriced...

EagerBuyer(Not) said...

Just Jack,

Seems like this RE agent is telling a different story than you...

Salt Spring real estate market shows strength

koozdra said...

"We must remember that while the rest of the country was undergoing a market correction from about 2008"

Is that so?

koozdra said...

The Ladysmith house that nobody wants

Just Jack said...
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Just Jack said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Just Jack said...

How accurate can averages or medians be on Salt Spring Island when only twelve (12) properties sell a month?

That's why reviewing re-sales of the same home as popularized by Professor Robert Shiller becomes the most reliable information. Robert Shiller being the same person that this agent disses in the article.

As I wrote earlier, sales activity has recently increased on Salt Spring Island but that is a reflection of lower prices. With 234 homes for sale and only 12 sold in September, it will be a long, long time before Salt Spring prices begin to steadily rise.

Marko said...

I am actually surprised how many places are selling relative to how slow showings are right now.

I have two accepted offers right now, both homes below 550k with suites, in the core. This segment of the market still seems somewhat okay. Rest of the segments really tough going.

Leo S said...

Does anyone have the inventory for greater victoria for the months before July 2008? Specifically I'm looking to complete my data from Jan 2006 to July 2008. VREB provides the number of sales, and I've managed to scrape together inventory numbers for July 2008 onwards, but don't have anything before that.

Thanks.

Marko said...

if you email me I can send you the inventory spreadsheet going back 20 years.

dasmo said...

You need your own graph site Leo.

Leo S said...

Thanks Marko. Email sent.

patriotz said...

Such reports often originate from utterings of some real estate persona such as Robert Shiller in California.

This dingbat doesn't even know that Shiller is a prof at Yale, which wasn't in California the last time I checked.

koozdra said...

Just walked by this place. The for sale sign has "Free HDTV". How can anyone pass up a sweet deal like that?

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12276603&PidKey=409034152

koozdra said...

"Era's 5-5-5 deposit program makes buying easy & 1st time buyers can purchase with only 5% down. "

Who doesn't love a good 95% LTV?

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12228075&PidKey=1711316494

Leo S said...

"Era's 5-5-5 deposit program makes buying easy & 1st time buyers can purchase with only 5% down. "

How is that different from normal?

koozdra said...

"How is that different from normal?"

Indeed. Can't get financing from the bank... get it from the developer.

95% LTV is a dangerous game to play.

Marko said...

Monday, October 15, 2012 8:00am

MTD October
2012 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 166 483
New Listings: 483 1,086
Active Listings: 4,616 4,687

Please Note
Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

amit said...


Amazing! This blog looks just like my old one! It's on a completely different topic but it has pretty much the same page layout and design. Great choice of colors!

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