What does the MOI mean for prices? I'll let this realtor from Phoenix explain:
It’s widely agreed that when inventory levels fall between 5 & 7 months, that the market will be considered balanced. Housing prices should be stable, perhaps rising slightly, influenced more by inflation than by demand. When inventory levels exceed 7 months, then the demand for housing is low, and prices are likely to fall. The high number of homes for sale will create a buyer’s market, allowing buyer’s to dictate price and terms to the majority of sellers if a seller wants to make a deal. When inventory levels fall below 5 months, sellers have more control over price and terms, often resulting in a more significant rise in housing prices, aka a seller’s market.So let's take a look at the last 7 years in Victoria history. Note that months of inventory is for all residential properties in greater Victoria, including single family homes, condominiums, townhouses, and manufactured homes. Previously I only had monthly data back to mid 2008, but Marko Juras has kindly provided monthly price, new listings, and sales data going back to 1990. Huge thanks for that!
 |
| Victoria Residential MOI and SFH Price (click to enlarge) |
What will happen next? It's anyone's guess but notice the steep rise in MOI in the past few months. We are now at the highest level since the financial crisis. Of course the fall will bring some declines here, so another way to look at it is by factoring out seasonal variations and examining the 12 month rolling average of both price and MOI.
Next up: What does a market bottom look like? Can it be predicted by the MOI?
UPDATE: How odd is 12 months of inventory in September? Very odd.
81 comments:
Very nice graphs.
I think we are very far away from the market bottom. Our sub-prime market will soon start to unravel.
What does a market bottom look like? Can it be predicted by the MOI?
I would say apparently not based on San Diego which bottomed at the beginning of 2012.
Piggington
However as koozdra pointed out we're so far away from the bottom today it's really a moot question.
IMHO what brought about the market bottom in the US was an influx of buyers looking for cash flowing properties, so I would say price matters much more than MOI. And prices in Victoria are still very high relative to rents and incomes.
My compliments on the graphs also.
Sorry, seems I messed up that link.
Pigginton - SD inventory
Very nice graphing. Certainly looks correlated. That spike in 2008 is telling, much more than the price graphs!! One thing I see is that the change in price in relationship to MOI is around 30%? To bad the graph isn't running slightly into the future ;-)
Excellent charts and analysis, Leo! Thanks.
Reviewing the graphs through my 'corrective' vision lenses, sipping the third cup of delish Sunday morning coffee and listening to the rain lightly hammer little silver rivets into the ocean's grey top.
Each of us must make our way through this life by courage, strength and intellect.
I cannot know what is going to happen but I can and am preparing for what has happened in the past under similar circumstances.
I'm ready for a correction of significant proportions. If it comes to pass, and I think it will, I will prosper from it. If it doesn't come I am well assured the flat and slow market will allow me to continue on as usual.
I am gladly here, in any event, in this beautiful province and on this paradise of Vancouver Island.
Updated the story with our current MOI compared to the last 16 years.
I would say apparently not based on San Diego which bottomed at the beginning of 2012.
I'm not quite sure what you mean. It looks like San Diego bottomed in 2009, no?
IMHO what brought about the market bottom in the US was an influx of buyers looking for cash flowing properties, so I would say price matters much more than MOI
Totally agree, but any increase in buyers will be born out in the MOI so a drop in the MOI is a lagging indicator. Ideally one would want to get in before the MOI drops, but the factors there are so numerous and complex that I don't believe they can be accurately predicted. What I want to examine in more detail is how the MOI behaves when a bottom is hit, and if an observant buyer could use that to detect a bottom and still have enough time to buy in. Simplistic of course, but I'm interested in how the actual bottom looks versus just a temporary spike.
I'm not quite sure what you mean. It looks like San Diego bottomed in 2009, no?
Double bottom. MOI was below 7 months from 2009 on, and doesn't seem to correlate much with the second peak in 2010 and subsequent fall. But I wouldn't expect fluctuations in MOI at a low level to mean too much.
The double bottom was found in a number of US markets, as the low rates post 2009 gave them a boost, but too late to have an effect like in Canada which brought on a new peak.
I would say that a positive YoY after a substantial decline is the best indicator that a bottom has been reached.
Victoria.
You have a way with words. You should write fiction.
S2 (JJ's wife)
Victoria.
You have a way with words. You should write fiction.
Victoria does show a knack for fiction--anticipating "a correction of significant proportions."
MOI was below 7 months from 2009 on, and doesn't seem to correlate much with the second peak in 2010 and subsequent fall.
I'm not so sure. You can see the MOI fall into a sellers market early in 2009 and that correlates with the rise in price. MOI slowly increases throughout 2010 and as it rises above 5 or 6 prices start to decline again for the second low. 2011 hovers around MOI of 5 and flat prices. 2012 sees MOI decreasing again and prices recovering.
@patriotz Although I take your point that just looking at the price change might be just as reliable. so MOI might not give you any advance notice.
I find it interesting to see a 12 MOI when I also know that in my little part of Oak Bay there are at least half a dozen houses which have recently withdraw from the market and two which are simply vacant and have been, in one case, for two years and in the other for five months.
If anything MOI is likely closer to 15 when the discouraged sellers are included.
The inclusion of commercial property may be the reason our inventory tends to read high. The actual residential months of inventory is only 10.9 for September.
It would be better to redo all of these with residential inventory, but it's much more work to calculate from the source data.. Maybe someday.
New construction will skew the months of inventory as well. A balanced market for pre-construction and recently completed condominium complexes will have a higher months of inventory than re-sale condominiums.
Another problem with these general market graphs is that the data is too wide spread and encompasses many sub markets. For example, the market for starter homes and the market for luxury condominiums have little in common with each other. One can have increasing prices while the latter has decreasing, yet both are included in the make up of the graph.
Then there are the lags in the market. High months of inventory has to be sustained for several economic quarters before house prices begin to decline.
Then there are the unexpected interventions like a change in the interest rate or lending policies.
And depending on if our economy is expanding or contracting, those interventions can have opposite effects. Announcing an interest rate increase in an expanding economy will actually increase sales and prices as the "fence sitters" make a leap into home ownership.
In my opinion, the MOI is one of the better leading indicators of where prices will be heading. But it can't stand alone, it has to be interpreted with other indicators, like the sales to new listings ratio, and the days on market, and the confidence in the economy.
I have now updated the first graph with proper residential MOI. This also allowed me to go back to using the accepted ranges for buyers, balanced, and sellers markets rather than a higher range.
@JustJack
Good points all.
like the sales to new listings ratio, and the days on market, and the confidence in the economy.
Sales to new listings is easy. Certainly something else to examine now that I have more data.
DOM I have yet to find a reliable source for that doesn't suffer from the re-listing problem.
Confidence in the economy.. hard to measure again. I would think low confidence would show up in the sales to new list and MOI very soon.
LeoS,
The first graph shows sellers market (green) from 4-7 MOI instead of 5-7 MOI. The second graph is correct.
Just thought you might like to know.
BTW - Your graphs are great. Much better than the ones I used to do!
@Roger. Thanks. Fixed now. In fact both the first version and the second version was wrong. Now I've done it as per the definition I quoted, so balanced market is only between 5 and 7 months.
A few sellers are getting a haircut. Check out the assessed value and sale price/original list price.
Haircut # 1
Haircut # 2
Haircut # 3
Thank you for the graphs. Once I deciphered them, I would say they reflect what is happening and has happened on the market re. sellers, buyers and balanced market.
TV,
So what did you think after you deciphered the graphs? Time to buy? Prices going up?
I have to admit to Schadenfreude when I see realtor "investors" and flippers getting burned.
Some of you might have watched the CBC investigative report on Sept. 20th Vancouver Housing: Bubble or Bust?. It featured a local realtor in Kitsilano that had a new home he built listed for $1.57M. Back in March it was listed for $1.79M so the asking price had dropped 12%. When asked if he expected any further drops he said “Unit like this, I think you can find no more than 10 on the market at this moment. How much can it drop?”
Well.... A Vancouver blogger has been following this property and gives us the scoop here.
“Remember Philip Chan the realtor who was profiled on the CBC National report? He was commenting on how the market had “adjusted” and he had recently reduced the asking price on a property he owned by 220k. It looks like that same property is still on the market but for another 197k less than what he was asking in the September 20 report. AND he’ll throw in a new FIAT 500!!”
From $1.79M to $1.37M in six months and no takers. Gotta love a buyers market.
Ugh. Garth's blog is just getting embarassing. Tonight's entry is full of wild contradictions. One moment he compares an investment of $540,000 to a house of that value, then the next moment he says the guy was paying mortgage interest or high-ratio mortgage insurance. Not sure how he thinks this is good advertisement for his investment advice.
Great charts. Thanks for doing this guys, really appreciate it. :)
Great graphs Leo. Some interesting MOIs from this nearby realtor:
With total active listings of 686 and average sale around 28 homes the past 3 months, there are 24.5 months supply of homes in the market....The decline in housing sales and home prices in Richmond will take many years to play out.
http://richmondbcrealestates.com/?p=844
Fascinating it is, human psychology. Interesting how the down slope is steeper than the up. Prices must now be dropping in the thousands of dollars per day.
EB - I think that my opinion has remained the same. If you only have 20% down, now is an OK time to buy provided you know your market well and are willing to do some work and/or have rental income. Some properties needing work will go significantly less than assessed right now. The market has shifted enough that seller confidence has been impacted.
I do believe if rates rise prices will fall more. Rates will rise one day. If you have a huge down payment waiting might be more prudent.
Fascinating it is, human psychology. Interesting how the down slope is steeper than the up. Prices must now be dropping in the thousands of dollars per day.
It will also be bumpy if Seattle is any guide.
MOI is highly negatively correlated to price changes. In Vancouver it's around -0.91 if you adjust the price change period and time shift the price metrics appropriately. See the graph here.
Likely Victoria will show similar improved correlation if you time-shift the data and look at different price change periods (i.e. quarter-on-quarter or half-on-half).
In Vancouver and the Fraser Valley -- two different boards -- an MOI=7 results in roughly flat prices. Perhaps Victoria has more capacity for higher MOI for whatever reason.
The Vancouver Realtor James Wong is attracting some recent bear blog attention with his post predicting a huge crash in Vancouver up to 70% from peak.
Unfortunately there are two mistakes in his analysis. The first is that he's using a very blurry graph :).
More importantly he's making the same mistake I made a couple years back, which is fitting a straight line to a chart of real estate prices, which always makes the current values look like a massive bubble. Of course if you expect a natural rise of X% a year, that line would be exponential, not linear.
In Vancouver and the Fraser Valley -- two different boards -- an MOI=7 results in roughly flat prices. Perhaps Victoria has more capacity for higher MOI for whatever reason.
Hi Jesse. It's the same here. From 1996 to 2000 the market was dead flat in Victoria at an average MOI of 7.3.
This also matches the definition of a balanced market of 5-7 MOI, where one would expect gentle price increases at about the rate of inflation.
Some properties needing work will go significantly less than assessed right now.
Everything is going for less than assessed. Wake up and smell the burnt toast.
I do believe if rates rise prices will fall more.
Prices will fall more, period.
"If you only have 20% down, now is an OK time to buy"
False.
Kind words S2! Thank you.
When I set my steely eyes on a prize do I want to realize after winning it that I've been duped? Do I want to gaze back at my actions and realize I've been a fool? What empty winnings would I have if I bought now and stuffed the pockets of a seller with hundreds of thousands of dollars more than I need to?
Nobody wants to taste the bile of stupidiy! Far better to be the smartest kid in the class, collecting the coveted title at the end of the year.
There are signs of collapsing prices everywhere. I, like some others here, take good note of them.
@Koozdra: Here you go... know your memes ;-)
@SilverSurver
Lol, Dwight would definitely be a 'predatory buyer'.
Monday, October 15, 2012 8:00am
MTD October
2012 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 166 483
New Listings: 483 1,086
Active Listings: 4,616 4,687
Please Note
Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year
"AWESOME HOME! Priced $110,000 below assessment!"
Assessed: $511,000
Price: $399,999
Start the race to the bottom. 78% of assessed. Will it sell now?
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12409138&PidKey=1523244827
^That house is badly in need of an update!!!
"The ratio of credit market household debt to disposable income hit 163.4 per cent in the second quarter, up from 161.8 per cent in the previous period, the agency said."
...
"That number is also about where households in the United States and the United Kingdom stood before home values crashed."
...
"The biggest share of that increase was accounted for by mortgages."
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/10/15/household-debt.html?cmp=rss
Google: "Home Sales drop 15% in September"
"That number is also about where households in the United States and the United Kingdom stood before home values crashed."
That's an interesting coincidence.
Good Monday morning all....here are my stats from last week:
SFH in the areas of Vic,OB,ESQ,SE&SW with a minimum of 2 beds and 2 baths priced between $375K & $775K
Sold: 10
Avg Price: $602K
Med Price: $653K
7 out of the 10 went for below BC assessment and three of them had secondary suites.
Within my criteria, there were 44 available listings last week in the SE areas of Gordon Head, Mount Doug and Lambrick Park. Of these, only one sold.
Last week had the highest avg price since I started tracking in mid July 2010. Also the week had the highest median price since I started tracking in Oct of 2011. Of course there were only 10 sales last week and since mid July 2010 there have been just 10 weeks that had a lesser amount. The number of sales for this week is normal however as in 2010 & 2011 the number of sales were both at 11.
Within my criteria last week in the same areas as SFH, no townhomes sold and only 4 condos. No condos sold (2 beds & 2 baths), at the lower end of below $325K.
@Koozdra
Regarding MLS 314712 ... you gotta wonder why the price has been slashed! (Always worth checking for asbestos-laden vermiculite in the attic.)
The difference between opinion and fact becomes blurred on this board sometimes.
Opinion: An opinion is a subjective belief as a result of an interpretation of facts. An opinion is supported by facts, although people may draw opposing interpretations from the facts.
Facts: A fact is something that has actually happened ans is empirically true and can be supported by objective evidence.
I gave an opinion which is open to alternative interpretation. It is not just "false".
It addition, stating that "everthing is going for less than assessed" is factually untrue, or false.
Stating that "prices will fall more, period" is presenting opinion as absolute fact despite the fact that it is a prediction - which I understand could be quite annoying for some folks.
Finally, it is still my opinion that now is not a bad time to buy under the circumstances I set out. If you don't want to buy, then don't but please don't present opinion as though it is fact or combat my opinion as if I presented it as fact.
Another way at looking for price changes in the market is to follow a specific type of home, such as the Gordon Head box and see how that home has done.
The most prolific style of home in Saanich is the basement entry home. Typically this home ranges in size from 1,815 to 2,815 finished square feet and occupies a 6,000 to 10,000 square foot lot.
Let's have a look at the third quarter median prices of this benchmark property for each year.
2012 (65 sales) $540,000 (median)
2011 (79 ) 575,000
2010 (67 ) 575,000
2009 (109) 563,000
2008 (74 ) 556,950
2007 (108) 542,500
2006 (98 ) 499,500
2005 (102) 439,800
2004 (110) 364,900
2003 (115) 319,900
2002 (89 ) 264,900
2001 (112) 235,700
2000 (64 ) 230,000
1999 (64 ) 234,250
It looks like, we would need a substantial increase in the volume of sales to kick start this market back into increasing prices. The very best and most optimistic forecast would be for flat prices. I don't see that happening, because of the gigantic amount of stimulus that was forced onto the market beginning in 2007, could only keep prices stable.
That stimulus has now been withdrawn. All those hundreds of billions of dollars could only defer the inevitable.
Stating that "prices will fall more, period" is presenting opinion as absolute fact
No it's not because facts are things that have already happened. It's an opinion about the future, i.e. a prediction which can only be known to be true or false in the future.
So let's see whether prices rise or fall next month, which will show whether the prediction was true or not. But a prediction is not a fact whether or not it turns out to be true.
you gotta wonder why the price has been slashed! (Always worth checking for asbestos-laden vermiculite in the attic.)
Seems to me that asbestos or other hazards are not likely to be a reason for a property to be priced well below assessment, since they are grounds for the assessment itself to be reduced.
One last change the Government needs to do is lower the cmhc available to insure to 500,000.
I rally do not get why they still insure 900k houses. You want a 900k house have the down payment.
I rally do not get why they still insure 900k houses.
Because they want a "soft landing". A drop in the ceiling to 500K would crater Vancouver overnight and likely do the same to Victoria and Toronto within a few months.
I agree that a prediction is not a fact. I disagree with the presentation of "x will be y, PERIOD" as what would commonly be understood as a prediction. In any event, you are right, we will see if it becomes fact.
@patriotz
Seems to me that asbestos or other hazards are not likely to be a reason for a property to be priced well below assessment, since they are grounds for the assessment itself to be reduced.
The BC Assessment information does not include any information about asbestos. My point is ... if the sale price for a house seems particularly low - get the property thoroughly checked out - including checking for asbestos-laden vermiculite in the attic.
I've known house sales to fall through after the inspection, due to discovery of asbestos. The homeowner then has re-listed with a big discount, as they cannot afford the asbestos remediation themselves.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that in BC, homeowners (and realtors?) are legally obliged to disclose the known presence of asbestos - but are not obliged to check before selling. So buyer beware!
Totoro, is there ever a bad time to buy?
A couple of years ago we were "predicting" prices to start falling based on fundamentals. It is now a "fact".
Right on, Patriotz. Reducing the amount to $500,000 would crater the Vancouver market.
Yet, I'm guessing that the $1,000,000 cap will gradually be reduced.
CMHC and the taxpayer should not be bankrolling paper millionaires. Time to bring CMHC back to its roots, that of helping Canadians buy their first home.
Condo Langford market is struggling big time....
206 - 866 Brock Ave sold today for $255,000.
206 - 866 Brock Ave was purchased in 2008 for $334,900.
Nice 2 bed, 2 bath 920 sq.ft. unit a decent building.
Affordability certainly is improving quickly in this segment.
Yes. It is, imo, a bad idea to buy if:
1. you know you cannot ride out a market for seven to ten years
2. if you are in a shaky marriage
3. if the stress and cost of ownership outweigh the benefits compared to renting (after you have carefully considered these factors for your family)
4. you can't currently pay and qualify for a long-term low rate and a rise in interest rates would create financial strain in the next seven to ten years
5. you are pushing your affordability limits to buy (overextending) for any number of reasons
As far as market timing goes, well, I'm no expert. Right now if you have a large down payment you might benefit from waiting to see if and how much prices drop. If you have a small down payment you might benefit from very low rates, long term, and lowballing a property needing work.
If you have a small down payment and wait and prices drop a lot more and interest rates don't rise then that is good too: it is just an unknown as opposed to a certainty or fact.
Conversly, if rates start to rise there will likely be some panic buying which will bring greater competition to the market before the rates impact affordability. Again, when and if rates rise is an unknown.
Ultimately, it is a personal choice is based on financial and non-financial motivators. Thinking folks are idiots for buying now comes across as fairly judgmental and why does one care about what others choose anyway?
There are many stories that are bandied about by people who like to know better. One is the story of the "underwater" homeowner. This occurs in a down market, but only if you have to sell. If you are concerned about this: don't buy. You'll be stressed out by it.
Look at those folks who were so silly as to buy at a non-ideal time between 1985-1995 and hold until today. Let's pick a former median of $168,000 for Victoria. Why, they would only have made about $400,000 in appreciation not counting principal pay-off or any rental income...
Sure, they could have waited and tried to time the market or the rates or both. Of course, you trade certainty of the present market for uncertainty of the future market. Unless of course you have a crystal ball.
Well, I do believe it has been four years of predictions now. At some point it will happen simply because that is the behaviour of the market. Real estate markets rise and fall fairly regularly.
Anyone who believes they always will rise or always will fall ignores probability based on past performance. I myself thought the market would start to fall four years ago: I was incorrect as it turns out.
@totoro.
Very well said with respect to opinion vs fact. I know that I have become much more careful what I've said as I learn more about what affects the markets and how they behave.
Fact is, we can only speak about price pressures. Certain factors are positive and others are negative. That doesn't mean prices are going up or down, it just means the pressure increases in one direction or another. No one can predict prices with any certainty because no one has all the information.
I myself thought the market would start to fall four years ago: I was incorrect as it turns out.
You were correct, it did fall and then recover due to the unprecedented drop in interest rates at the end of 2008. It reached a second peak in 2010 and is down from then. And it will be down again next month. Remember, that's just a prediction - for now.
And when do I think it's a good time to buy? When it's cheaper than renting, subject to all credible contingencies.
No it's not because facts are things that have already happened. It's an opinion about the future, i.e. a prediction which can only be known to be true or false in the future.
patriotz
Wrong, a fact is "a thing that is indisputably the case." You are saying a drop in prices is indisputably the case. Why do the bears on this site continue to use opinion as fact?
I always thought condos in Langford were very speculative. Condos belong downtown, not in the suburbs. At least not until a rail link is in place...
The house we just bought had vermiculite insulation and it wasn't disclosed. After the house inspection it was and we then reduced the price by another 5k. It then cost us 7k to remove it and certify it with a clean bill of health. The estate agents actually knew about it because after it was revealed they said they had it tested for asbestos and it "passed". That didn't matter to me. it should come out anyway because of WCB rules. You will never get anyone to work anywhere near your attic with vermiculite in it...
Wow, I do believe we are in agreement Patriotz...
"When it's cheaper than renting" We need a graph for that. I'm curious how often it has crossed this threshold. I bought in 2003 because I could buy a house for $100 less than renting a townhouse. I did have to paint the place and landscape mind you...
The BC Assessment information does not include any information about asbestos.
What I meant is that asbestos or other hazard not know to BC Assessment is grounds for the owner to appeal the assessment.
You are saying a drop in prices is indisputably the case.
I was making an unconditional prediction, as opposed to TT's conditional one.
I'm not saying it's indisputable at all. Go ahead and dispute it.
Totoro, if you had bought the typical Gordon Head box four years ago, then you would have been correct. Prices have come down from 2008.
You actually would have to go back to the third quarter of 2006 to see that the typical Saanich home has appreciated. And that was when our economy was expanding with low unemployment and low vacancy rates.
Sales volumes are now similar to when BC was in a recession in the mid to late 1990's.
We need a graph for that. I'm curious how often it has crossed this threshold. I bought in 2003 because I could buy a house for $100 less than renting a townhouse.
Is there a good source of data for rents of houses?
Also depends on whether you've added up all the costs on both sides. Many people just think about the mortgage and forget about the other costs, or don't remove the principal payment.
Actually years ago the typical 70's Gordon Head houses were called "shoe boxes" because they they were all of a four cornered, rectangular shape.
Prices may have come down a bit from 2008 but I thought they would have fallen starting in 2008 and go down for a bit. They did not.
@dasmo
The estate agents actually knew about it because after it was revealed they said they had it tested for asbestos and it "passed".
I checked "the fine print" regarding vermiculite disclosure from CREA:
As a listing agent, you should remember that vermiculite insulation is not a banned substance. Nor is it a latent defect, and therefore may not have to be disclosed by the seller. On the other hand, it may be a pertinent fact under provincial regulatory codes or policies that requires disclosure by the REALTOR®. You should have a frank discussion with the seller and be clear on his/her instructions. Disclosure at the beginning may be the best shield against potential liability.
Anyone have any thoughts on the revision to the debt to income stats that caused the debt to income to jump by 10%?
@Leo
According to the CBC article:
The revision of historical data on national net worth was based on five major changes on how to measure the value of non-financial assets of such things as research and development activities and home values. StatsCan also stripped out non-profit institutions from the household category, getting a more accurate reading on the state of family finances.
This seems to suggest that the value of housing was overestimated.
I wouldn't be surprised if there previously were some political interference with the numbers reported by Satistics Canada. At a minimum, I would expect that Harper, Flaherty, and Carney must have known about this for a while.
Related article:
Carney pledges clear signal if household debts warrant rate hike
Carney is Niro and the middle class is Rome.
Nice analogy, Koozdra. However, I think that Carney is prepared to make some unpopular decisions if needed. Perhaps it is because he is appointed and does not need to consider re-election...
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Thank you for sharing the latest inventory update of this month. The way you explain with the graph and all that stuff is pretty interesting. :)
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