Wednesday, March 6, 2013

200 comment update

Thanks to DavidL for the chart showing the relationship between averages and medians over the past 8 Februarys.  Of course it is but a single data point that diverges, but it is remarkable the consistency of previous years.


Made me think about whether there is some kind of pattern there so I plotted monthly data for the last 22 years.   Is there a pattern?  Dunno.  Might deserve some closer examination.  More importantly we can all stop clicking that annoying "Newer" link.


141 comments:

DavidL said...

@CS
Interesting chart. Any ideas as to the reason for the divergence between the lower and higher ends of the market? Are buyers at the upper end investing cash, fearful of inflation, while those at the lower end are hesitant to assume large mortgages when interest rates are expected to rise within the next several years?

My theory is that there are less first time home buyers entering the market (than in the past) and there is still some activity in buyers who are up-sizing to a larger house or nicer neighbourhood. Thanks to a combination of high personal debt, wages not keeping up with inflation, rising interest rate concerns, high real estate prices and a realization that waiting may be a smart move... is keeping first time buyers from flooding in. Even with a 10% down payment, a $400K mortgage may make some reconsider. Pricing at the bottom end of the market seems to have dropped a lot over the past four months.

On the other hand, if a good portion of the mortgage is paid off - selling a less desirable property and taking on another $200K mortgage for a "nicer property" may seem less daunting. This sentiment along with much lower activity at the bottom end of the market is why I think that the median is dropping while the average price has risen slightly.

koozdra said...

We are entering a time when being a motivated seller goes from adding "motivated seller" to your listing to actually being motivated to sell and lowering your price.

Dave said...

The divergence above could continue for years yet, as the high-end sees relatively more sales to the low-end. All the listings popping up near Beach Drive lately, tells me more of the high-end are figuring out the jig is up. Even if they only start discounting by 20%, those high-end sales will still cause the divergence we're seeing. Adding to it, first-timer demographics make it a certainty that low-end sales will keep trending down for years. If we could better separate the market segments, the story would become much clearer.

Dave said...

Or, what DavidL said above (same idea). Thanks for the chart DavidL.

caveat emptor said...

Interesting that the mean to median ratio bottomed out around the time stock markets bottomed out in early 2009. Does that mean that the financial crisis scared off high end buyers more than low end buyers?

Leo S said...

Can't say I can make heads or tails of that data. The recent increase could be due to low end buyers being removed from the market, but the long upward trend until mid 2006? You'd think that the ratio would be depressed in the 2000s as credit was made more available for high ratio buyers.

dasmo said...

It's because the stock market is doing well so the more well-to-do are feeling confident and don't bother reading drivel like Garth's blog. The lower end does and probably still has that Maclean's mag sitting on the back of the toilet filling their subconscious with fear...

StalJ said...

The problem with that theory is most canadians are invested our resource companies. It is well researched that mostly people invest thier own country. Since this was last posted it is now down about 60% since 2011.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CDNX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95696037966

patriotz said...

"most canadians are invested our resource companies."

Most Canadians aren't invested in the stock market to any significant extent even including RRSP's.

The number with significant holdings outside RRSP's is very small.

There is certainly a correlation between RE and stock markets but that's because they are driven by the same macroeconomic factors, not because one is driving the other.

dasmo said...

Really? I'm the only one benefiting from the stock market?

Marko said...

The problem with that theory is most canadians are invested our resource companies. It is well researched that mostly people invest thier own country. Since this was last posted it is now down about 60% since 2011.

I don't get it? Are you saying resource company performance is a better indicator of how CND portfolios are doing versus the market index?

Doesn't make sense to me - who holds stocks in CND telecoms, banks, etc., etc., foreigners?

Leo S said...

Really? I'm the only one benefiting from the stock market?

On a national average level? Yes.

Marko said...

Really? I'm the only one benefiting from the stock market?

Certainly not....I can't believe TRP is at 49! When I bought it I would have been content with the dividends but it up 59% + dividends. RCI was a dog for me a long time but now up over 60%. Big move in the last 8 months.

If it wasn't for capital gains I would sell everything right now. There has to be a pullback at some point.

Marko said...

^I would personally.

dasmo said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
dasmo said...

I wonder why all the banks bother to have online brokerages, or why there are so many financial advisors, or why they bother publishing stats in the paper or dedicating TV and Internet bandwidth to the subject if no one is investing?

Mayfair Man said...

Great post! I wonder what the same graph would look like for the core? Is it the Westshore and Sooke that is taking the hit and dropping the median down?

Leo S said...

@dasmo why don't you just look at the stats? Most people dont have much invested outside their house. It's just a fact.

Dave said...

I don't get it? Are you saying resource company performance is a better indicator of how CND portfolios are doing versus the market index?

Marko, CDNX is an index (exchange) of over 2300 listed companies based in western Canada. It's the remnants of what used to be the Vancouver Stock Exchange and it's nearing its lows of 2009. To me, it's one 'indicator' that our jobs and growth engine is starting to sputter.

dasmo said...

Such stats aren't facts, They are estimates. If I ask ten out of a thousand people a question the average answer can hardly be called a "fact" pertaining to all thousand. How do "they" know what Canadians are up to in terms of the stock market?

Introvert said...

Really? I'm the only one benefiting from the stock market?

On a national average level? Yes.


I have never placed money in the stock market, and I probably never will. Also, the stock market is evil.

Introvert said...

Carney shifts from housing bubble to sluggish growth

In its latest policy statement, the central bank removed language that suggested it would raise rates, if necessary, to curb a surge in household borrowing to record levels. Instead, the bank cited evidence that consumer debt is now growing at the same rate as incomes as it explained its decision to leave its benchmark lending rate at 1 per cent for the 30th consecutive month.

The bank’s threat to raise rates had been driven solely by concerns about household borrowing, said Sébastien Lavoie, assistant chief economist at Laurentian Bank in Montreal – not by worries about inflation. With that threat removed, “companies and consumers can go ahead and plan on rates not being materially different in a year than they are right now.”

koozdra said...

Bank of Canada:

Everything is fine, continue borrowing. Ignore the collapsing housing bubble behind the curtain.

Leo S said...

Such stats aren't facts, They are estimates. If I ask ten out of a thousand people a question the average answer can hardly be called a "fact" pertaining to all thousand.

That's why they don't let you (or I) do those surveys, but instead leave it to people that understand the concepts of statistical significance and sampling methodology.

Anyway it's not like all the numbers come from surveys. Statscan has access to the actual underlying data for things like RRSP contributions, balance, TFSAs, etc.

Introvert said...

Everything is fine, continue borrowing. Ignore the collapsing housing bubble behind the curtain.

Don't worry: I will. Borrowing is so CHEAP!

yogurt said...

Huh. 892 Beckwith Ave sells for over asking, and over assessment, after 14 DOM.

dasmo said...

"In 2005, 6 in 10 families held RRSPs, with a median
value of $25,000"
"As of 2005, over 60% of assets in registered plans were exposed to the stock market through either direct share ownership or by way of mutual fund holdings (The Wealth of Canadians 2005, 13)."
"Those aged 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 had saved substantially more($40,000 and $55,000 respectively)"
"nearly 90% of families with after-tax annual incomes of $85,000 or more owned RRSPs, with a median value of $80,000."

dasmo said...

"Statscan has access to the actual underlying data for things like RRSP contributions, balance, TFSAs, etc."
I'm pretty sure that's considered private in this country...

Marko said...

why don't you just look at the stats? Most people dont have much invested outside their house. It's just a fact.

Doesn't surprise me. At TD and RBC they are always trying to sell me mutual funds and financial services and other crap - it must work on the average person. Super annoying listening to it as I do everything myself. In my TD Waterhouse I have a TSFA, SDRSP, and CANADIAN MARGIN accounts. I watch a bit of BNN, read a bit online. The average person just doesn't bother to educate themselves enough.

caveat emptor said...

Th world's priciest real estate markets. Hint - Victoria is not one of them
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/200-000-buys-worlds-most-165944265.html

Marko said...

Huh. 892 Beckwith Ave sells for over asking, and over assessment, after 14 DOM.

I've seen a few properties in the past month that couldn't sell last year get listed this year and sell for very close to or higher than last year’s list price.

Are prices going up? No.

But I guess the right buyer did show up this year unlike last year.

Marko said...

Th world's priciest real estate markets. Hint - Victoria is not one of them
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/200-000-buys-worlds-most-165944265.html


And I thought downtown condos Victoria were expensive at $400 per foot.

kunwak said...

StalJ: I don't believe for a second that most (of the ones that do invest) Canadians are invested in the Venture exchange. You need to look at something like the S&P/TSX, not the venture exchange to get a realistic picture of where the Canadian market is at.

caveat emptor said...

"Most Canadians aren't invested in the stock market to any significant extent even including RRSP's."

That's sort of true, although as pointed out up-thread, probably a plurality of working age Canadians do have RRSP equity holdings. You could argue the amounts aren't particularly significant.

I don't have numbers but I am assuming that people buying million plus homes are far more likely than average to have "significant" equity holdings so would be more affected by the vagaries of the stock market. Even if the equity is in an RRSP you are still going to be more inclined to spend when you see your holdings rising in value vs. plummeting.

Introvert said...

I watch a bit of BNN, read a bit online. The average person just doesn't bother to educate themselves enough.

Marko, you make it seem so easy: just educate yourself!

In reality, plenty of people derive their "education" from poor sources. And when people find "good" sources, they often miss important take-aways or come to false conclusions.

Consider, too, that many people consider Garth's blog to be (non-ironically) "educational." Nuff said.

koozdra said...

It warms the cockles of my heart that the bank of Canada is in full control of interest rates. They are saying that housing bubble worries have abated and we can go on with business as usual.

But wait, isn't business as usual for the Canadian economy to grow based on real estate appreciation and related industries?

Maybe the government isn't in full control of the economy. No that can't be right, not here. Other places, sure, but not here.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/03/07/td-rate-hike-prediction.html?cmp=rss

Jack and Cate said...

dasmo said...

I wonder why all the banks bother to have online brokerages, or why there are so many financial advisors, or why they bother publishing stats in the paper or dedicating TV and Internet bandwidth to the subject if no one is investing?
____________________

Probably because most "investors" are looking for the holy grail and like gamblers, don't know when to fold.

http://www.planretire.com/Why-most-investments.htm

dasmo said...

It's not that hard...Did it really take rocket science to buy RIM @ $7? No debt, solid brand, strong market desire for an alternate to Apple, new product coming down the pipe. I mean I still see people with those chiclet phones and no one else makes em! I went short on half taking my initial investment out and am going long on the rest...

Dave said...

Th world's priciest real estate markets. Hint - Victoria is not one of them
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/200-000-buys-worlds-most-165944265.html

And I thought downtown condos Victoria were expensive at $400 per foot.


The key is both the IMF and Economist have the data showing Canada as the world's highest price-to-rent. Victoria is among the highest ratios in Canada.

Translation: It's one of the smartest places in the world to rent.

Marko said...

Marko, you make it seem so easy: just educate yourself!

In reality, plenty of people derive their "education" from poor sources. And when people find "good" sources, they often miss important take-aways or come to false conclusions.

Consider, too, that many people consider Garth's blog to be (non-ironically) "educational." Nuff said.


Good point.

Just Jack said...

$10,000 cash bonus for new homes and the first time home owner ends this March 31.

This incentive did have an impact on housing.

It made first time buyers pass on homes that were just a few years old. That made home owners have to drop several multiples of $10,000 cheaper to sell their home.

Actually the home owner took it both ways and got double penetrated on this government incentive.

The home owner lost value on the re-sale of their home and their taxes were given to flog overpriced suites by developers.

Well done Christy - maybe we can return the favour this May.

Leo S said...

"Statscan has access to the actual underlying data for things like RRSP contributions, balance, TFSAs, etc."
I'm pretty sure that's considered private in this country...


I guess they must have invented all this data then.

"In 2005, 6 in 10 families held RRSPs, with a median
value of $25,000"


So in other words, exactly what I said. A median of $25,000 and 0 for 40% of families, meanwhile the average house is $350,000 and 70% of families own.

Introvert said...

The BC Liberals are going to get eviscerated this May. And they deserve it.

dasmo said...

I conced that TFSA and RRSP contribution data is available through tax returns. I was more thinking of value not contribution amount. They also don't know the value of my tirade accounts until I sell.

Marko said...

It's not that hard...Did it really take rocket science to buy RIM @ $7? No debt, solid brand, strong market desire for an alternate to Apple, new product coming down the pipe. I mean I still see people with those chiclet phones and no one else makes em! I went short on half taking my initial investment out and am going long on the rest...

How many people actually bought at the bottom? I don't like RIM at all. I traded it for a number years and finally got burned buying at $43 which I thought was a good deal. Sold at $27.

Hard to invest into a company when I've switched from a blackberry to a galaxy and my smartphone usage is 99% business.

yogurt said...

They also don't know the value of my tirade accounts until I sell.

Your tirades are priceless, dasmo! :)

dasmo said...

Lol

dasmo said...

I don't like RIM either I'm an apple guy...

Leo S said...

It's not that hard...Did it really take rocket science to buy RIM @ $7? No debt, solid brand, strong market desire for an alternate to Apple, new product coming down the pipe.

It's not nearly that simple though. You could easily make the reverse argument. Collapsing sales, increasingly irrelevant brand, technology completely out of date, new products with no software ecosystem, quickly losing ground in their primary market of business, and worrying service outages, recent history of failed launches (playbook).

$7 was cheap, but does Blackberry have a future? Very uncertain.

caveat emptor said...

"It's not that hard"

Investing in the stock market is easy-peasy. But investing and consistently beating the market is a challenge for both "amateur" and professional investors. That has been shown by lots of studies.

If you have been investing for a while and have brilliant returns to show for it consider the following possibilities:

1) I really am a very good investor. My methods, analysis and decisions are better than the vast majority of investors.

2)I have been a bit lucky with timing and decisions.

On the same note I tend to distrust internet reports of investing prowess. People tend to highlight their better decisions and forget that they thought Nortel was a screaming buy at 30 and again at 12...

CS said...

Did it really take rocket science to buy RIM @ $7

To know whether it was a good buy probably would take rocket science. That's why Warren Buffet prefers to invest in cement and railroads that an ordinary person can understand.

I once heard a big shot professor, founder of a major high-tech university spin-off company tell how he'd bought Nortel at $78. At the time is was trading at $2.50.

The next day I bought Nortel at $2.50 certain that whatever happened I'd prove smarter than the professor.

Within the day I'd lost 80% of my investment.

But I kept my nerve! I doubled down and doubled down again, and eventual got out with minimal damage on a small bounce!

But maybe Google at $800 plus is a good buy: to be viewed not as a tech stock but as an information utility stock!

CS said...

If you have been investing for a while and have brilliant returns to show for it consider the following possibilities.

I actually have a formula for success:

Study the market. Do the research. Make a decision. Then do the exact opposite.

Unfortunately, I've never had the discipline to follow the formula. But it's a sure fire winner.

dasmo said...

The blue chip half off sale of 2009 didn't seem to hard to me either...

People that listen to prophets like Garth bought Nortel. People who invest in what THEY know didn't touch it...RIMM is far from Nortel, so far anyway...

Leo S said...

On the same note I tend to distrust internet reports of investing prowess. People tend to highlight their better decisions and forget that they thought Nortel was a screaming buy at 30 and again at 12...

You nailed it. Remember SilverSurfer talking about how silver was a good investment when it was rising? Remember dasmo talking about Apple? Interesting how we never get a comment about silver going from 40 to 27, or apple from 700 to 450.

info said...

Clearly the median and average have been telling us different stories over the last 6 months. The first chart shows the obvious disconnect between the two.

I stick with what I have been saying for months - the average is far too vulnerable to skewing and that is exactly what has been happening for months. The new mortgage rules shut the door on many potential first-time buyers starting about 6 months ago. This has artifically pushed the average price higher almost every month since. It also shows up in the 6-month average price data.

The US uses the median instead of the average for obvious reasons. The median produces much more reliable and consistent data as it cuts out most of the skewing that the average allows.

The 3-month median data, in my opinion, tells the true story of how much price decline Victoria's housing market has experienced so far.

CS said...

Re: the difference between the low end and the high end of the RE market:

At the low end are mainly young people many of whom have been loaded for years with student loans. Their earnings have yet to reach a peak, and they have had minimal opportunity to save.

Among these people, most who had saved enough for a down payment will have bought during the boom, when the prospect was for a quick capital gain.

But those who are still saving have much less incentive to buy now. Interest rates could be up by the time they have to renew a mortgage and prices, on current trends, will be down.

At the top, say the wealthiest 25%, are households with a net worth of around $1 million. The net worth of the top one percent — about 1500 families in Victoria — is probably closer to $10 million.

For these relatively wealthy individuals, the chief concern about interest rates may be that a sharp increase will drive down the value of their stock portfolio. So for them, RE may look like a good inflation hedge. This will drive up demand for the better properties.

And the supply of waterfront OB or E Saanich mansions is inelastic. Likewise, pre-WWII arts and crafts houses — you can't build that kind of quality today, or so I have been told by a distinguished architect.

So, at the low end the expectation is for prices to subside, at the high end the expectation is for prices to rise, and in both cases these expectations are self-fulfilling.

kunwak said...

Dasmo, you sound so brilliant. Will you outperform the market for decades to come with brilliant stock picks? Likely not. >95% of investors under perform the market in the long term.

Good luck with your trades. My point is that it's certainly not easy to outperform over the long haul and a decade of good results is nothing in investing... You might get burned yet.

dasmo said...

I've been burned...a few times. That's partly why I didn't actively invest for many years until 2009. I lost my stomach for it.

I just invest in what I know to be good. Reactine is the good allergy med so I invested in Pfizer, I drink Coke so I invested in Coke, What equipment do I see everywhere? CAT, so I invested in CAT. Heinz makes the only good Ketchup so I invested in Heinz. Some further research was performed after picking my targets, but no genius required...

I saw / see robots as the next big thing and thus I am investing in misc companies that design and manufacture robots....

koozdra said...

I'm investing all my money in Cyberdine Systems.

dasmo said...

he he... iRobot and ABB are my picks...

Just Jack said...

The game Minecraft. How would you invest in that?

Jack and Cate said...

Well there is always -

MJNA.PK

What the hey - and no charge for the advice.....

caveat emptor said...

"I just invest in what I know to be good"

Let me know when Phillips Brewery goes public!!

koozdra said...

Dasmo, if you like robots, I suggest Robot and Frank.

dasmo said...

The jig is up in the States. Median home price increases Q4 2011 to 2012:
Phoenix: +34%
San Fran: +28%
Atlanta: + 18%
LA: + 18%
Seattle: + 17%

Dave said...

I know someone who bought a house in phoenix for 60K who figures he's up 50% (~30K). I sort of maybe ;-) believe him as some of my REITs are up that much.

DavidL said...

Back to our previously scheduled program about Victoria real estate ... ;-)

The following chart shows the Months Of Inventory (MOI) for 2011-13. Note how for the first 2 months on 2013, the MOI is much higher than the previous two years.

To me, the MOI is a "leading edge" indicator - showing where the market is going. The rapid increase in MOI started last July when the feds changed the CHMC rules.

Leo S said...

Yes, the last tightening bit the most.

SJ said...

Re: 3520 Upper Terrace Road
MLS 317443

SEBA Construction has just dropped the price from $898,900 to $799,800 for the existing house, which is now below assessed value.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12665416&PidKey=2073974312


This came through my PCS, but hasn’t changed yet on MLS.

They have also slightly changed their wording from:

“Renovate the existing house, or build the advertised West Coast Contemporary masterpiece with SEBA Construction” to:

“SEBA Construction will build you a custom West Coast Contemporary home to SUIT YOUR BUDGET, or renovate the existing well built home. Offer for sale below land value!”

It sounds as though they are getting a little more flexible (or perhaps anxious). Does anyone know what they paid for it?



DavidL said...

@SJ

I believe that $770K was previously paid for 3520 Upper Terrace Road [MLS 317443].

StalJ said...

About David & Leos skew above^^, as the boomers bail from their castle and the youth shrivel, I could easy see -15% on the face of things…BUT in reality -30%! will fool a lot of people. You may say boomers will buy condos to make up for youth ..but many will buy big sailboats, RV, die or become expats.

2010 sales _ 2 x 1.0M, 7 x .5M = .61M average
2015 sales _ 4 x 0.7M, 5 x .35M = .51M average but EVERY home -30%!

koozdra said...

Great news!!!

Housing construction jumps in February

Now if we actually READ the article, which I'm sure not most people will not do.

"The actual number of housing starts last month, without seasonal adjustments, was down year-to-year.

There were 10,965 starts last month, down from 12,247 in February 2012."

I guess a yoy decline of 10 percent is now shoved at the end of the article. Perhaps the article should have been titled "Spring sees rise in housing starts, just like every year."

Introvert said...

Economic Forecast: Canada To See Years Of Stagnation, BMO Report Predicts

Canada’s economy has outperformed the U.S. for five years, but Canadians better prepare themselves for an equally long period of underperformance, says a report from BMO Capital Markets which expects economic growth to be below 2 per cent for years to come.

Thankfully for some, extremely low, unprecedented, emergency, temporary interest rates look to be around for quite a while longer.

reasonfirst said...

"Thankfully for some, extremely low, unprecedented, emergency, temporary interest rates look to be around for quite a while longer."

..together with lower house prices..yahoo!

DavidL said...

In a different article also published today on CBC ...

CMHC sees housing starts falling in 2013
In its first-quarter forecast released Friday, the national housing agency’s mid-point prediction for starts is 190,300, which would be down 11 per cent from 2012’s 214,827.

The CMHC expects a pickup in starts to about 194,100 in 2014, as employment and economic growth gain momentum later in 2013 and in 2014.


It all unicorns and rainbows for the CMHC when predicting the future economy ...

DavidL said...

@Introvert
Thankfully for some, extremely low, unprecedented, emergency, temporary interest rates look to be around for quite a while longer.

Define "temporary"? It looks like we have had low rates for close to four years now ...

Introvert said...

..together with lower house prices..yahoo!

From a strictly financial perspective, it is better to buy today than it was when I did, in 2009. No question.

But I don't base important decisions solely on financial considerations; therefore I have no regrets.

Introvert said...

Define "temporary"? It looks like we have had low rates for close to four years now ...

I know, DavidL. I thought the irony was obvious. I'm sure it is to our pal, info. ;)

a simple man said...

Seems in oak bay that the frenzied sales of last week are exactly that - last week. This week seems pedestrian in comparison.

totoro victoria said...

I have never regretted buying any real estate. I bought my very first place at 20 - a one-bedroom condo in a small town for $60,000ish.

That condo never made me a cent, but it did not cost me either - although it might have had I known how to invest otherwise and counted these costs on my principal. I didn't back then, but it was a pretty small amount of money.

What the condo did do was teach me about due diligence. I learned that inexpensive condos were not the way to go for appreciation or signficant rental income. Might be different in Victoria with higher end units, but I've never purchased another one since. I dislike strata fees particularly.

Looking back, the only decisions I regret are the ones where I did not buy. Even recently looking at the Phoenix numbers...

info said...

The fact that the Canada has had emergency interest rates for 4.5 years is really bad for the Canadian economy moving forward.

The reason for the emergency rates in the first place was, you guessed it, an economy in crisis.

The US housing bubble burst in late 2005/ early 2006. At the time, the US economy was booming. It wasn't until about 2.5 years later, in 2008, that the US economy fell off of a cliff and needed massive stimulus through emergency interest rates. The crashing US housing market was responsible for putting the US economy into an emergency situation.

It wasn't a weak US economy that caused the housing market to crash.

Canada's economy has been under the influence of massive stimulus for 4.5 years through emergency interest rates. Canada's housing market is starting its major correction with a weak and struggling economy. The housing market correction will be damaging to the Canadian economy which is already being propped up by emergency interest rates.

In the US, slashing rates in 2008-2009 way down to emergency levels was somewhat effective in providing stimulus for the US economy. In Canada, we will not have that option since rates are already at emergency levels.

This is really bad news for house prices in Canada.

info said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
info said...

"The jig is up in the States. Median home price increases Q4 2011 to 2012:
Phoenix: +34%
San Fran: +28%
Atlanta: + 18%
LA: + 18%
Seattle: + 17%"

After such a devastating housing market crash, prices were bound to go higher in the US at some point.

Let's not forget how severe their crash was.

In late 2006, this Los Angeles house was valued at $400 K. By late 2010, it's value had deteriorated all the way down to $136 K.

In early 2006, this Phoenix house was valued at $436 K. By late 2011, it's valued decreased all the way down to $231 K. It is currently estimated at $264 K. Not a lot of gain, considering the huge price drop it sustained.

For those of you who are new to buying, I'd like to give you some perspective with regard to rebounding housing markets.

We all know how badly the US housing market crashed. What most people don't know is that house prices in Phoenix and Las Vegas remained within 5 - 10% of their bottoms for 3 years. Similarly, house prices in Los Angeles, San Diego and Miami remained near their bottoms for 3.5 - 4 years, as examples.

There will be no rush to buy once prices in Victoria have have decreased a lot. I expect most of the big price drop to happen within 2 years.

Introvert said...

By late 2010, it's value had deteriorated all the way down to $136 K.

By late 2011, it's valued decreased all the way down to $231 K.


It's hard to take seriously the arguments of an adult who doesn't grasp the difference between "its" and "it's."

koozdra said...

"It is an objective reduction of course, but it is also symbolic and we remain concerned, I remain concerned, with the housing market in Canada."

We're all very concerned.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/03/08/business-flaherty-mortgage-cuts.html?cmp=rss

koozdra said...

Good job Introvert.

Introvert said...

Good job Introvert.

It should be: "Good job, Introvert."

Introvert said...

Have a nice weekend, y'all. Troll out!

Just Jack said...

Is he gone?


Is he really really gone?


its
its
it's
it's
itz

Oh sweet sanity.

DavidL said...

@koozdra

If Flaherty is really that concerned, he should consider "bumping up" the down payment to 7%!

DavidL said...

... but that would be the needle that pops the bubble (instead on the slow leak that is being engineered).

dasmo said...

See you nerds on the beach this fine winter weekend!

Just Jack said...

Instead of changing the down payment, CMHC would just have to make it more difficult to get high ratio financing in specific regions. Crazy places like Victoria and Vancouver would only see a trickle of loans approved. Yet those areas that are suffering economically would get more loans approved.

This could all be done without the general public knowing. Which is the way our government likes to work.

Marko said...

Oak Bay still seems to be doing okay....

3067 Oakdowne 3k over asking today.

patriotz said...

That would be $3K over $729K or $732K.

But it's assessed for $774K.

Bitterbear said...

I recently directed the previous owner of 3520 Upper Terrace to this blog. He and his wife have decided to rent until the market comes down.

koozdra said...

I nice little housing collpase will see this become a reality.

a simple man said...

And the oakdowne house needed upgrading everywhere. Busy open house.

LeoM said...

Investing...??

in 1967, in the movie The Graduate the dialogue went like this:

Mr. McGuire: I want to say one word to you. Just one word.
Benjamin: Yes, sir.
Mr. McGuire: Are you listening? Benjamin: Yes, I am.
Mr. McGuire: Plastics.

Today it goes like this:
"I want to say one word to you. Just one word." "Are you listening Dasmo?" "Graphene"

DavidL said...

@Bitterbear

Very interesting. They apparently sold at the "perfect" time and will likely be able to move into an updated "upscale" house in a few years.

DavidL said...

@LeoM

If you want to get really excited about graphene - check this out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtM6XJlynkk&feature=youtube_gdata_player

koozdra said...

I want the space cable already.

Craig said...

"It's hard to take seriously the arguments of an adult who doesn't grasp the difference between "its" and "it's." "

Actually, it's a lot harder to take seriously someone who dismisses the arguments of others simply because an apostrophe is misplaced.

It's like arguing we should ignore Einstein if he misspelled 'relativity.'

Or dismissing someone who said the following, because they forgot the comma after 'therefore.'

"But I don't base important decisions solely on financial considerations; therefore I have no regrets."

Oh wait, that was Introvert, the sad cretin who thinks knowing the difference between its and it's makes up for the fact that he's economically illiterate. But it doesn't, and reading this blog for useful information amply supplied by people like JJ is increasingly irritating because you have nothing better to do.

So stop being so pathetic and bugger off.

Just Jack said...

Actually, itz my own damn fault...munch, munch, munch- as Im riting this stuf between big macs ... munch, munch, munch and just brain storm them out - without much... wheres the catsup?...or any proofreadin.

My level of care is very low, as I treat this as an exchange of quick ideas. Not as an article to submit to the Economist which may take a week to write and proof read. The grammar Nazi's are correct. However I choose to be the plucky French man with the tipped beret hiding his sten gun in a loaf of bread. Or perhaps hiding Charlize Theron in a hay cart - which really has nothing to do with Nazi's at all - and that's a totally different story.

So, hence, that, is, why, I, may, let, a, comma, in, where, its, not suppose, to, be;

vawr said...

@Craig

".......Oh wait, that was Introvert, the sad cretin who thinks knowing the difference between its and it's makes up for the fact that he's economically illiterate. But it doesn't, and reading this blog for useful information amply supplied by people like JJ is increasingly irritating because you have nothing better to do.

So stop being so pathetic and bugger off."

Well said, Craig. It's time for introvert to take a permanent hike.

dasmo said...

Wouldn't it be a boring around here if no one stirred the pot?

Leo S said...

Wouldn't it be a boring around here if no one stirred the pot?

Yes, everyone please stay.

dasmo said...

@Marko good call on RCI.... I didn't think of that, even thought I've had a contract with them for fifteen years. I don't like them but that was an obvious play I missed! See, no genius here.
Graphene is pretty interesting. As the most expensive material on earth it will be a while before it is applicable to making money....

koozdra said...

"As the most expensive material on earth it will be a while before it is applicable to making money...."

This is reminiscent of Bill Gates' comment. Technology advances faster than we always think it will.

CS said...

It's time for introvert to take a permanent hike.

But isn't Introvert Just Jack's sock puppet?

If so, the expulsion of the one might enervate the other — an unacceptable risk.

koozdra said...

Who would pay the troll toll if Introvert wasn't around.

Jack and Cate said...

Dasmo you are very astute. Just mumble a few posts about investing and voila - you get all the opinions you never asked for but investments that are about the "pop"!

Pure genius, just pure genius.

CS said...

@DL Months of Inventory

This chart illustrates nicely the seasonal variation in the supply/demand relationship, with supply falling sharply relative to demand from the beginning of January through March, remaining low through early June and then rising continually until the end of the year.

Presumably the cycle correlates with testosterone level or oxytocin, or some such thing, in which case, a few pounds of the anti-hormone dumped in the reservoir could tip the market sharply.

Otherwise, the data confirm that the spring is the time to sell, the winter the time to buy.

CS said...

Sorry, the chart just noted should have been attributed to DaveL, not DL.

Jack and Cate said...

Marko says - 3067 Oakdowne 3k over asking today.

Last list price I could find was $729k but it is assessed at $774k.

And 3051 Oakdowne sold for $680k last July - assessed @ $728k

I surmise that being or doing okay is in the eyes of the REALTOR® ??

dasmo said...

"you get all the opinions you never asked for but investments that are about the "pop"!
Can someone translate this for me?

Leo S said...

Otherwise, the data confirm that the spring is the time to sell, the winter the time to buy.

Depends. Spring gives the most selection, and if you want a place that doesn't have anything clearly wrong with it, those tend to show up a lot more then.

Fall is the time to bid low on the places that have some flaw and have been lingering on the market.

patriotz said...

Seems the retirement market is doing badly south of the border too:

Too Young to Retire, but These Deals Can’t Wait

BOCA RATON, Fla. — Susan Shapira, who is 58, recently moved into a condominium in Century Village, a gated retirement community here where most residents are almost as old as the name...

But Ms. Shapira says she has no regrets. She bought her two-bedroom condo for cash — $26,900.

koozdra said...

Just looking at the upper terrace listing.

As Canadian we frown on false advertising. If a worker at the store changes the expiry date on some ground beef instead of throwing it out and you buy it and bring it home and find out that it's going bad on the inside, you'll be upset.

Since real estate is an unregulated wild west dominated by one institution, we put up with all the bullshit that comes along with a monopoly.

Is this false advertising? Yes it is. Is it fraud, yes it is. Will we look the other way because we all have made money from real estate appreciation, yes*.

* well, 70% of us

Leo S said...

"According to Palm Beach County property assessment records, Ms. Shapira’s condo originally sold for $40,800 in 1980."

Amazing. Over 33 years the real value of that condo declined by 76%

koozdra said...

"$1000 to the buyer whose offer is accepted unconditionally by the seller by March 10."

This will definitely push any buyer on the fence about this property to purchase.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12399509&PidKey=-159154725

Unknown said...

Is this false advertising? Yes it is. Is it fraud, yes it is. Will we look the other way because we all have made money from real estate appreciation, yes*.

Yes of course, all other industries are 100% transparent in their advertising.

The Shaw ad I saw yesterday day that said TV, Phone, Internet for $69.00/month with the fine print that says "first 3 months
$94.90 regular rate" Not only was the print way smaller but also faded.

When I bought my car last year at Campus Honda an early 20s woman from Barton Insurance was trying to advertise me that private insurance was going to be 10% cheaper - the numbers made absolutely no sense to me as there was no way insurance on a Honda Civic went up that much year over year. Spent half an hour pushing and trying to deceive me. Finally I said, "No, I don't care if it is 10% cheaper, I want everything with ICBC."

Then she said, "Ohhhh, I didn't see you had a 43% discount with ICBC." What BS...was deceiving me by using no ICBC discount versus my private cost even though she knew I had a 43% ICBC discount. In my scenario, ICBC was 30% cheaper versus private.

Anyway, I could write about 1-2 things per week were I don't this advertising is transparent.

You have to do your own due diligence weather you are buying cable, cellphone, car, or house.

koozdra said...

"Anyway, I could write about 1-2 things per week were I don't this advertising is transparent."

I call that fraud also. Do you enjoy being lied to?

axeman said...

Marko said...

All right, forget RE, lets move on to Equitys...

Just kidding... RE is too much fun...

time to balance the old portfolio soon, yes some stocks have done well, especially the American ones. I have Brk and it is up 30%, my Royal Dividend has done well back to where it was in 2008, and still climbing. It is good to have about 20% US equity in your portfolio, this has done well. Look at Dow Chemical, has done well, and Ford, but now is the time to sell not buy. Have a look at Greater Fool today. Yes a dip will come, don't gamble, keep a balanced portfolio. The couch potato web site is fun one for setting up a balanced portofolio.

-chow

Leo S said...

I call that fraud also. Do you enjoy being lied to?

It's not fraud. When Shaw says it is $69/month then that is true. It doesn't claim that it is forever at that price. That's the whole point of fine print.

Same with the upper terrace listing. The price is correct, and the description is very clear about what you get. Would it be more clear if the title picture was the existing structure? Sure, but its such a mild measure of misleading that I can't see why you would get annoyed over it.

koozdra said...

Maybe this can be a new industry standard. Realtors should upload completely unrelated pictures. You go see the property, they just say, if you tear it down you can build what you saw in the pictures.

I wouldn't have a problem with it if the pictures were water marked.

What you see in the pictures is not reflective of the product being offered. Fraud.

Leo S said...

Maybe this can be a new industry standard. Realtors should upload completely unrelated pictures. You go see the property, they just say, if you tear it down you can build what you saw in the pictures.

Why not? It will backfire anyway, that's why people aren't doing it.

I wouldn't have a problem with it if the pictures were water marked.

The picture is obviously a computer rendering. I guess if they give you the cad file then it's not fraud anymore.

koozdra said...

"The picture is obviously a computer rendering. I guess if they give you the cad file then it's not fraud anymore."

Haha, ok I can agree to that.

Marko said...

Wrote three offers for buyers last week, all that I thought were reasonable. Sellers not budging, didn't bring one together. Interesting market place.

Leo S said...

Spring optimism I guess. Maybe sellers are waiting on the rest of the spring market. A couple places selling for above asking and people get hopeful that the recovery is here.

Introvert said...

Actually, it's a lot harder to take seriously someone who dismisses the arguments of others simply because an apostrophe is misplaced.

Dumbness should be thankful to have a defender like Craig!

It's like arguing we should ignore Einstein if he misspelled 'relativity.'

info ain't Einstein; boy do we know that!

Or dismissing someone who said the following, because they forgot the comma after 'therefore.'

A comma after "therefore" is optional, in this case. As I did not wish to emphasize the word "therefore" in my sentence, I decided against the comma.

Nice try, sucker!

So stop being so pathetic and bugger off.

I see that I've elicited an emotional response. How exciting for me!

My level of care is very low, as I treat this as an exchange of quick ideas. Not as an article to submit to the Economist which may take a week to write and proof read.

So you generally like to solve problems of incomprehension during the proofreading phase?

It's time for introvert to take a permanent hike.

Oh, I'm not going anywhere.

kabloona said...

Marko, without revealing too much info....were those 3 offers between 5 and 10 per cent lower than asking price?

Or were they extreme lowball offers? Thanks...

dasmo said...

Nice winter weekend! We built a raised garden bed and are ready for the veggie planting this spring! Got a bit of a sun burn on saturday...

david hain said...

We could see a deep decrease in 2009 due to the recession factors in
real estate
in Canada

koozdra said...

"Mortgage brokers are pressing the federal government to make it easier for young people to buy their first homes, just as the spring sales season descends and Ottawa prepares its next budget."

That's so nice of the mortgage brokers. Thinking of us lowly first time home buyers. For some reason nobody is mentioning that there is another way for first time home buyers to buy in. A massive price collapse.

Shhhhh... don't stir the pot.

Brokers pursue mortgage break for first-time home buyers

Marko said...

Monday, March 11, 2013 8:00am

MTD March
2013 2012
Net Unconditional Sales: 150 570
New Listings: 433 1,385
Active Listings: 4,137 4,274

Please Note
Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

Introvert said...

For some reason nobody is mentioning that there is another way for first time home buyers to buy in. A massive price collapse.

Maybe it's because low mortgage rates exist; a massive price collapse does not.

koozdra said...

"Maybe it's because low mortgage rates exist; a massive price collapse does not."

Then why are sales slowing across the country? Why are construction starts slowing?

Rates can be as low as they want. Without constant appreciation people will not want to pay such high prices.

Just Jack said...

There is no reason to lock up so much of your lifetime income in one single asset without the faint hope of appreciation. And if prices continue to slide, then any mortgage paydown evaporates along with your down payment and equity.

In my opinion, if you're paying more than 25 percent of your income and have more than 15 years left in the mortage you are going to have a very tough time keeping your home.

Life is hard enough without hanging this Albatross around your neck.

Just Jack said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
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