Monday, March 25, 2013

Mar 25 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

March 2013March 2012 
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Uncond. Sales150
259
382
570
New Listings433
732
980
1385
Active Listings4137
4215
4267
 4274
Sales to New Listings
 34%
35%
39%
 41%
Sales Projection500
470
478
Months of Inventory
7.5

Sales are just failing to pick up like they should for the spring.   Again we are lagging on sales/list and with our increased inventory we will see continued high MOI at end of month (~9 vs last year's 7.5).

116 comments:

a simple man said...

Thanks Leo.

Anyone have experience with the cost of adding a second floor?

caveat emptor said...

Obviously the weak sales are just due to the weather. Either too much wind and rain earlier in the month or too much sun and pleasantness now. I wait the month end VREB report to find out which.

a simple man said...

Funny market around the $700-$800K mark in OB. Some $700K houses are in need of a lot of work and then there are other $750-$800K houses of the same sq footage that are done and ready to live in. I think the CMHC is pushing many over $1M houses to price below $1M, which is putting pressure on the houses that were in that range to price lower and it is trickling down. Right now the battle is in the $700-$800K range, and moving lower.

Alexandrahere said...

a simple man: If it is possible, go out rather than up...much cheaper.

LeoM: 1958, 1100 block MacLure St 1912 era home bought for approx $10K, sold twice in the last 12 yrs or so. The asking prices were between $675K & $700K ish.

Dave said...

I question 0% real return on real estate in North America. The land here was for the most part taken for free (or nearly so) from the previous inhabitants.

For bare land a hundred years ago you make an excellent point, especially if it's since been developed - the real return would be much higher (infinite, for the person who took it for free).
I often question the 0% too, however bear in mind that the Case-Weiss-Shiller N.A. data is based on repeat sales of single-family homes. So it makes it tough to argue with their conclusions, when in real terms, the exact same houses are selling for essentially the same price they were 100 years ago.

koozdra said...

I say we end the month just shy of 500.

koozdra said...

.

Alexandrahere said...

Here are my stats for 18-24 March

SFH: In the areas of Vic,OB,Esq,SE & SW, priced between $375K & $775K with a minimum of 2 beds & 2 baths.

Sold: 21
Avg Price: $594K
Med Price: $609K

Eleven of the 21 went for below BC
Assmt. Four had secondary suites. The number of homes sold lately in these areas with secondary suites has gone down compared with the avg sales over the past two years.

In the SE areas of Mt Doug, Lambrick Park and Gordon Head, there were 4 sales with an avg price of $607K. Since the beginning of this year, the avg sale price in these areas was $582K, so last weeks avg is quite a bit higher than that.

With the exact criteria for the week of 19-25 March 2012:

Sold: 36
Avg Price: $584K
Med Price: $560K





dasmo said...

"the exact same houses are selling for essentially the same price they were 100 years ago." Sounds like rock solid capital preservation with income generation. Those canal houses probably rent for a pretty penny. Also, the way to make money in real estate would be through "improvements". Kind of like the fellow who bought the waterfront Saratoga beach property for 690k and is selling strata RV lots for over 100k each. Even the evil flipper needs to slap in a granite countertop....

not yet said...

looks like just over 500 to me.
of course that doesn't take into accout the deals that will fall through in the early part of April

Introvert said...

Sales are just failing to pick up like they should for the spring.

Again, are you making judgments about sales numbers today by implicitly comparing them to the days of irrational exuberance?

What type of spring pick-up in numbers "should" (your word) Victoria have?

Leo S said...

Well, given last year was the worst sales year on record and we are still seeing 10-20% YoY declines in sales rate, I think we can safely say the spring market is not performing as it should.

However I don't know whether the increase in sales this spring is out of the ordinary, just that the total sales rate is. We have never had a sales drought like this. It will be interesting to see how long the effect from the mortgage changes last (how long are first time buyers sidelined by the restrictions?).

a simple man said...

@ Leo:

Again, are you making judgments about sales numbers today by implicitly comparing them to the days of irrational exuberance?

Sounds like we need a double-agent-esque graph of previous March sales for about a decade back to make the call. Anyone?

Leo S said...

More restrictions coming. After cutting back massively, it looks like bulk insurance through CMHC will be completely gone very soon.

Leo S said...

You need to look back to 1995 to find a march with fewer sales.

a simple man said...

So introvert - are you implying that you bought during a time of irrational exuberance?

koozdra said...

The most important part of the mortgage trend article above:

"The cost of funding mortgages should rise as banks..."

A rise in mortgage rates without an interest rate hike.

not yet said...

this change is an effort to put
responsibility onto the lender and off the back of the taxpayer.
I applaud.

Introvert said...

So introvert - are you implying that you bought during a time of irrational exuberance?

I probably did buy at a time of irrational exuberance. But that admission does not imply regret on my part: for a variety of reasons we were ready to quit renting and jump into the market. And based on Alexandrahere's price numbers for Gordon Head, buying today versus buying a few years ago is not substantially different, so that also plays a part in our feeling good.

Alexandrahere said...

Marko and all: Does anyone know what 1140 Faithful in Fairfield went for?

Also, walking along Dallas Rd yesterday and saw that new house on Dallas at Begby is just sitting there. Nothin appears to have changed in the past year. I wonder, did someone die, get divorced or go broke?

Hey! Nice day today. Sun feels glorious.

Marko said...

$727,000

DavidL said...

@a simple man

I would be happy to put together an "Eight years of March sales" chart together when the March numbers are posted.

dasmo said...

Interesting. 1140 Faithful is assessed at $696,000.

caveat emptor said...

Alexandrahere - do you mean Dallas @ Bushby? If so they are still building (I see workers there from time to time), but the rate of progress is glacial.

Russ said...

Hey Marko,

4825 Maplegrove st was for sale last spring I think. Can you tell me if it sold then and for how much?

Thanks vey much!

Marko said...

$737, 500

Animal Spirit said...

I've got SFH median running at $536K this month, with average at $595K. Of the 184 SFH sold, 23 are 2011, 2012 or 2013 builds. 10 houses > 1 million so far in March.

Row Labels Count of Sales
Co 8
CS 8
Es 7
La 23
Me 1
NS 11
OB 15
SE 40
Si 5
Sk 13
SW 12
VI 32
VR 9
Grand Total 184

Jack and Cate said...

It appears that the market sellers are in the denial phase. Not believing that their property is worth less (following the processes of loss)

While buyer's are in the waiting game phase.

Some will jump to buy but more and more are waiting. It will be interesting to see over the next year at what price levels % to Value will trigger sales and in what numbers.

subprime11 said...

Simple man. Agreed OB is an interesting market to watch. As the most desirable neighborhood in Victoria there will always be buyers wanting in. Their desire overides all else so if they can afford the mortgage payment on a $600,000 loan then they purchase. Those buyers are supporting the market around $700 - 800K.

subprime11 said...

The recent TD report that real estate will remain flat for 10 years helped sellers realize that there will be no quick rebound like in 2008 but they are still in the denial phase.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Canadian+house+prices+remain+flat+years+predicts+Bank/8079269/story.html

Leo S said...

A tale of two countries.
Home buying intentions drop to record low

U.S. home prices rise most since June 2006

About said...

I know about the house on Dallas near bushby. The owner is not short of $, in fact spent many weeks recently traveling. His own choice for the slow pace of the build. Likes to pick certain materials, finds different fixtures all over, that sort of thing. Sometimes changes his mind on a design and changes it etc..

Cool house though once finished.

a simple man said...

Market is changing. I have been approached by 4 private sellers of homes in the past two weeks. I have never been approached before this year.

koozdra said...

Housing intentions to buy down???

Here I was under the impression that while interest rates were low people would buy no matter what.

But could it be that we could have a housing crash even at these historically low emergency rates?

No, no, that would just be crazy. Never mind.

Alexandrahere said...

Caveat emptor and About: Thanks for info about the house on Dallas at "Bushby". Glad things are ok with the owners. I talked to them about their new home approx 2 yrs ago .... a nice couple and seemed very excited about the project.

a simple man said...

I just wish their siding on the house was all the same colour. But, they pay the piper and have the right to call the tune.

Just Jack said...

Is that really true?

Is Oak Bay the most desirable place to live in Greater Victoria?

How would you test this statement?
How would you measure desirability?

Would you measure desirability by price? Or would you measure desirability by volume of sales in relation to population?

In a narrow minded way we could use price as the yard stick. But how would that account for new versus old, small lot versus acreage, big house versus small? Waterfront? Waterview?

Someone who loves horses - wouldn't consider OB as desirable. The same for character homes. Own one of these energy hogs once, you'll be looking at new construction the next time you buy.

Then there is clustering of people of like social, political, economic, racial and religious groups. OB is so small of a township - maybe they have more white Jewish Dentists that vote Liberal. Clustering could sustain high prices - as long as the hood doesn't change and Hacky Sack computer programmers start gentrifying the hood.

Personally, I don't consider ALL of OB to be desirable. Some areas are just full of poor white trash, grammarians and renters. But maybe we should put desirability to a test?

How would you define desirable?

Leo S said...

Price is a good measure of desirability. Factor out the waterfront which doesn't exist in other areas and you have a good yardstick.

Obviously desirability is subjective, but we can measure the desirability of something for the population as a whole by what people are willing to pay.

Renter said...

Desirable to me:
- Useable small acreage (ie: not all rock, preferably not completely treed)
- Fully or even partially fenced
- Existing greenhouse, raised beds, fruit trees
- Relatively quiet location
- 15-20 min maximum drive to work in Royal Oak

And I haven't even started talking about the house yet! (3 bdrm, 2 baths, lots of cupboard and counter space in the kitchen, fireplace would be nice, rest is negotiable, assuming it is in reasonably good shape) Basically, I'm limited to Central Saanich and a few parts of East and West Saanich as I don't want to drive in from Metchosin or Sooke. So please, all you folks keep jonesing for Oak Bay and Fairfield and help push CS prices down. :-)

Dave said...

Isn't price more of a reflection of supply and demand rather than just demand? You'd have to somehow factor out supply's effect on price.

PS The DOW is a terrible metric from what I hear.

Dave3

Just Jack said...

Just Jack's Top Ten Neighborhoods

10) James Bay @ $657,000

$383 per finished square foot
5.5% picked this location over the other top hoods. Small homes on small lots. The typical hut is 1,715 sq. ft on a 4,500 sq. lot. Mostly comprises government workers who can't pass a driving test.

9) Henderson @ $670,000
$294 per sq. ft. and 15.5% of the poll wanted to be Hendersonians. The others wanted to be Martians.

8) Fairfield East @ $670,000
$330.sq.ft and 12.5% Such a popular area that they had to split in two - kinda like Pakistan.

7) North Oak Bay @ $675,000
$315/sq.ft and 6.9% Voted as the number one place for Thrifty's and Safeway to retrieve their carts.

6)Fairfield West @ $682,000
$319/sq.ft. and 16.3% This is where the government workers who passed their driver's license test live.

5)Estevan @ $755,000
$343/sq. ft. and 5.5% This is also where you'll find herds of Lululemon stretched to the maximum at the local coffee shop.

4) South Oak Bay @ $788,750
$341/sq. ft and 21.8% I would say this is the winner in popularity. But, South Oak Bay is also the largest hood too.

3) Rockland @ $845,000
$327/sq. ft and 8.1% I think it's the name. And that any pan-handlers that fall asleep on the sidewalk naturally roll down to the ocean.

2) Gonzales @ $867,500
$318/ sq. ft. and 2.6% Great views from homes along the escarpement but not kid friendly. Great place for out of work Hedge Fund managers to live.

1) Uplands @ $1,485,000
$425/ sq. ft and 5.0% This hood is just so far out of character with the rest of the planet. Big homes on big lots. The typical home is 3,500 square feet on a half acre lot. The typical home has a floor space ratio of 31%. That would make half of the typical Uplands lot surplus land. Take away the effect of the surplus land and you get one of the lowest price per square foot rates at around $300. Don't expect a block party in this hood.

Some round off and grammar errors just to keep you busy.

koozdra said...

Never too early to think ahead for your children.

A Chinese Family Bought A $6.5 Million NYC Apartment For Their 2-Year-Old

Just Jack said...

So you just won the lottery and you want to be around other millionaires? Where do you find them?

37% of the million dollar and more homes sold last year happened in Oak Bay.

29% in Saanich

18% in Victoria

6% in North Saanich

6% in Central Saanich

Honourable mention went to the Highlands, Metchosin, Colwood and Langford with one each. Way to go - underdogs!

Those numbers have not really changed much from a decade ago when:

Oak Bay had 38%
Saanich had 36%
Victoria had 8%
Central Saanich at 8%
North Saanich at 14%

Conclusion:
Best place to sue someone for getting hit by a car - Oak Bay.

Just Jack said...

Did she sign the purchase agreement in crayon?

In this way you can launder both the diapers and the money at the same time.

I don't believe you can put a two-year old on title? Anyone know the answer?

patriotz said...

we can measure the desirability of something for the population as a whole by what people are willing to pay.

It gets more complicated when something is purchased with the expectation of resale, like RE. That's why more people are willing to buy for a given price on the way up than on the way down.

subprime11 said...

Although not for everyone, Oak Bay is the most desirable hood in general. I wonder how much longer homes like 1729 Hampshire (sold for 770K)will find willing buyers at $110K over assessed value.

Just Jack said...

I just showed you that the statement that Oak Bay is the most desirable area - is false.

More moneyed people chose NOT to live in Oak Bay by a ratio of 3 to 2

Or putting it another way, these people had a choice of where to spend their million and 62% of them chose not to live in Oak Bay last year.

Introvert said...

So much stupidity in JJ's last post that I don't even know where to begin.

koozdra said...

"So much stupidity in JJ's last post that I don't even know where to begin."

Begin at the beginning. Let's hear your in depth retort.

subprime11 said...

Oh I get it...JJ was trying to prove me wrong. Oak Bay is definitely the most desirable neighborhood to live in because that's were I live. What more proof do you need.

SilverSurfer said...

JJ, thanks for the laughs. I LOL'ed about Rockland.

a simple man said...

Although not for everyone, Oak Bay is the most desirable hood in general. I wonder how much longer homes like 1729 Hampshire (sold for 770K)will find willing buyers at $110K over assessed value.

There will always be a market for character junkies - luckily, it is the last market I will approach.

Introvert said...

Begin at the beginning. Let's hear your in depth retort.

I don't have the energy anymore.

DavidL said...

@JJ: Thanks for the stats and humour.

(Cr)Oak Bay is nice, but why pay the premium? I think that there are as-nice or nicer places to be found in Victoria, East Saanich, etc. for less money.

a simple man said...

You mean like the neighbourhood on the hill above western speedway?

Marko said...

Have a nice mere posting coming up on Dufferin in Oak Bay. Older home with a nice addition done in the late 1990s....will be in the high 700s.

a simple man said...

I think I know the house. Interesting. Lots of listing appearing now. And lots of private offerings.

Marko said...

I am surprised more people aren't doing mere postings in Oak Bay. The prices are up there so there is a ton of money to save on commission and homes essentially sell on their own if priced well.

I always find it interesting when sellers list 800k homes and they sell in 10 days at full pop commission.

caveat emptor said...

"Let's hear your in depth retort"

Personally I think JJ did a fantastic job of proving that more people live (and buy) in more populous neighbourhoods than in less populous neighbourhoods.

And also that no area can be called the most desirable unless an absolute majority of millionaires buy houses there.

In the same way we can show that Burnaby or Surrey are more desirable than Shaughnessyy since more million dollar houses sold in each of the former than in the latter

DavidL said...

What does the OSFI know that we don't know...

CBC News - Canada's big 6 banks are too big to fail, regulator says
The measures ... are designed to limit the likelihood that a major bank would encounter distress or failure that could negatively impact the Canadian economy or taxpayers," OSFI head Julie Dickson said in a news release

koozdra said...

Our democracy is now dependant on the continued success of six large private financial institutions.

Chris vanresident said...

Just Jack's Top Ten Neighborhoods

10) James Bay @ $657,000

$383 per finished square foot
5.5% picked this location over the other top hoods. Small homes on small lots. The typical hut is 1,715 sq. ft on a 4,500 sq. lot. Mostly comprises government workers who can't pass a driving test.

9) Henderson @ $670,000
$294 per sq. ft. and 15.5% of the poll wanted to be Hendersonians. The others wanted to be Martians.

8) Fairfield East @ $670,000
$330.sq.ft and 12.5% Such a popular area that they had to split in two - kinda like Pakistan.

7) North Oak Bay @ $675,000
$315/sq.ft and 6.9% Voted as the number one place for Thrifty's and Safeway to retrieve their carts.

6)Fairfield West @ $682,000
$319/sq.ft. and 16.3% This is where the government workers who passed their driver's license test live.

5)Estevan @ $755,000
$343/sq. ft. and 5.5% This is also where you'll find herds of Lululemon stretched to the maximum at the local coffee shop.

4) South Oak Bay @ $788,750
$341/sq. ft and 21.8% I would say this is the winner in popularity. But, South Oak Bay is also the largest hood too.

3) Rockland @ $845,000
$327/sq. ft and 8.1% I think it's the name. And that any pan-handlers that fall asleep on the sidewalk naturally roll down to the ocean.

2) Gonzales @ $867,500
$318/ sq. ft. and 2.6% Great views from homes along the escarpement but not kid friendly. Great place for out of work Hedge Fund managers to live.

1) Uplands @ $1,485,000
$425/ sq. ft and 5.0% This hood is just so far out of character with the rest of the planet. Big homes on big lots. The typical home is 3,500 square feet on a half acre lot. The typical home has a floor space ratio of 31%. That would make half of the typical Uplands lot surplus land. Take away the effect of the surplus land and you get one of the lowest price per square foot rates at around $300. Don't expect a block party in this hood.
---------------------

Saanich East neighbourhoods don't factor in the "top ten"?

I'm surprised that Ten Mile Point doesn't get a mention.

Just Jack said...

Sorry Chris, Ten Mile Point has high prices too. At a median price of $955,000 - one might even call this area the poor man's Uplands. Like Uplands the homes are generally large at 3,000 square feet and the lot's are around 0.4 acre.

I hope this area never changes. It reminds me of Southlands in Vancouver. Or Panorama Ridge in Surrey - before the developers destroyed the neighborhood.

totoro victoria said...

I think the Camosun slope should be on the list and Uplands should come out. Uplands is desirable for a subset of wealthy folks, but not for those who don't have old money or new big money or those that don't want to use a car.

Personally, I only like neighbourhoods in walking distance to shops, schools and amenities. I'm a fan of the carless life.

My top pick is Oak Bay anywhere within easy walking distance to all levels of school, shops, rec centre, water. This means that they have to be an easy walk to Oak Bay high and OB rec. Some areas of Oak Bay are just too far for me - like Gonzales.

I draw a circle around Oak Bay high and include all bordering areas (Saanich East and Victoria)that match.

This means my kids have been able to walk to middle and high school by themselves. They also go to the rec centre on foot and the library. I send them out to pick up milk for me too.

Fairfield would have worked for us too, but OB was cheaper when we looked to buy the first time. Once you get your kids in a school district they make friends and want to stay.

If you don't care about being able to walk everywhere lots of neighbourhoods work.

reasonfirst said...

"I don't even know where to begin"

Start with grammar - that seems to be you area or expertise.

Just Jack said...

Camosun is nice too. Relative to the other hoods the price of homes in this area are less astronomical. Typical home price rings in at $548,450. A middle income home for a middle income family. Monthly hard and variable costs to maintain a conventionally financed home (excluding property taxes) would be around $2,650 per month.

That will get you an updated 1,900 square foot 1950's home on a 6,600 square foot lot. Property taxes of around $3,500 (before rebate) a year.

This is truly suburbia. The meat and potatoes subdivision for the working guy/gal developed in the 50's and 60's. If you listen real hard - you can still hear the faint echo of a Stompin Tom Connors' record being played on a Magnavox cabinet sterio somewhere in the hood.

reasonfirst said...

of expertise

Just Jack said...

Stereo

subprime11 said...

Ten Mile point feels like you've left the planet.

dasmo said...

My favorite is Fairfield between Beaconhill Park and Ross Bay cemetery. OB village is too old for my liking. I also don't like that new builds require a garage in OB.

CS said...

I wonder how much longer homes like 1729 Hampshire (sold for 770K)will find willing buyers at $110K over assessed value.

As yet, few vendors have capitulated (Terrace Avenue may be an exception), so sales that occur, are mainly at the very satisfactory prices that vendors continue to demand.

But sales appear to lag, which means some vendors will not sell at all, unless they make concessions, by which time the market may already have moved beyond what they come to accept as reasonable.

I believe that is what happened to many vendors in the States. By the time they were prepared to see reason, the market had already moved beyond what they deemed to be reasonable.

CS said...

With apologies to those allergic to superfluous commas. I really don't know where the pesky things come from. They seem to appear from nowhere for no reason whatever.

CS said...

My favorite is Fairfield between Beaconhill Park and Ross Bay cemetery. OB village is too old for my liking.

Hey, there's more life here in OB than in Ross Bay cemetary, I can tell you: we got rats, we got squirrels, we got 'coons, we got a whole herd of deer, and soon if we're lucky, we'll have a pack of wolves, or feral dogs, or maybe the odd cougar to impose a bit of natural population control on the deer.

totoro victoria said...

I like that area of Fairfield too, it was our first choice when we first bought - but we couldn't afford it.

As for OB, don't forget the murders of crows - we have one that we feed dry dog food too every morning.

dasmo said...

I still like OB. Gonzo Beach is my favorite beach in town!

Alexandrahere said...

When I was a teen I spent my entire summers at Gonzales Beach. (Willows just didn't cut it). I hear a blast from the past on the radio and fond memory flashes of that beach always appear. Of course Thetis was the "only" lake to be at.

At my last house, I was always feeding a family of crows as well. They really do like the dry cat/dog food. When they saw my car turning the corner they would quickly fly over and follow me up the drive-way. They knew where I sat in every room in the house....and would come to remind me quietly if I forgot to feed them.

There are so many areas of town that are my "favourites". I like Fairfield between Vancouver and Moss because of the sidewalks, big trees and walking distance to town.
I like Saxe Point, Rockheights & Parklands areas of Esquimalt for the residents' sense of community, great parks, and fabulous bus service. I guess my other favourite would be the Camosun College area between Lansdowne and Cedar Hill X. My main criteria also is schools (when I had kids), proximitely to shopping and good bus transportation....even though I mainly walk or take the car.

DavidL said...

@subprime11
Ten Mile point feels like you've left the planet.

Yup, it's a beautiful neighbourhood ... I'm biased though - I grew up there. There some hugely overpriced properties for sale there right now. I expect that expectations will come down eventually.

subprime11 said...

One more nice feature of North O/B and Estevan is protection from the cold ocean wind that hits the Dallas Rd bluffs, Fairfield and the Rockland slope.

caveat emptor said...

the cold ocean wind that hits the Dallas Rd bluffs

I live near Clover Point and love the area but I do sometimes long for summer days above the 18 deg mark!

Sometimes just getting north of Moss Rock adds 2 or 3 degrees

koozdra said...

Don't get a divorce...

totoro victoria said...

We use a bell for the crows. We ring it in the morning and they come flying in.

totoro victoria said...

Actually, don't buy a house if your going to get a divorce.

Victoria said...

James Bay is a fave for me. Surrounded on three sides by the incredible Pacific. The last border is a cascade of boutique hotels becoming 'grander' and more empress'ive' until the world famous inner harbour is reached.

People are great, James Bay Village is a walkable and lovely shopping area. The many tourists add to the summer-time good feelings.

Add in Fisherman's Wharf and you have an upscale/midscale/funkyscale neighbourhood with a very cool vibe.

dasmo said...

Well... with gas prices on the rise these walkable neighbourhoods will continue to command a premium. What is two hours a day and $4k a year in gas a parking worth? At least a 100k apparently.

totoro victoria said...

If those are the savings they more than pay for the additional debt servicing at a wage of $15/hr ($7800/year equivalent of your time saved - lets say net $6200 plus your $4000 in gas and parking (what about wear and tear?) for a total of $10 200 in actual savings and income equivalent for time spent.

Debt servicing and principal paydown on $100 000 is around $6000a year. You come out $4200 ahead plus your principal paydown.

Factor in wear and tear and depreciation OR not having to buy a car at all AND all the non-work travel (pick up and drop off kids/groceries/errands)... or having only one car... and the numbers are even more favourable.

koozdra said...

Your local walkable retailer will be all too glad to pass on the higher cost of transportation. Plus these local retailers charge an arm and a leg for the premium of being located in your neighbourhood. Thrifty's is no aptly named.

koozdra said...

No body could have seen this coming...

On thinning ice

totoro victoria said...

Actually, retail space is more expensive per square foot by quite a bit in the new big box malls in Langford than it is on OB avenue or Estevan - I don't know other areas.

As for high prices, I can walk to Fairways for groceries or Safeway and the Pharmasave and Bank are down the street too. When you shop daily you can buy what is on sale.

If you are saving $300 or $400 a month on transportation costs the bottom line is important. Driving to save a few dollars at Walmart might not make as much sense as you think.

I personally prefer the walk and shop experience and luckily there is a big enough market in some of these neighbourhoods to support this.

DavidL said...

@koozdra

The last paragraph of the article sums it all up :
So the Canadian consumer remains the main hope for the economy. It is an odd situation where both government and business have decided to be excessively prudent in their spending, but are hoping that consumers will not follow suit just yet.

patriotz said...

Actually, don't buy a house if your going to get a divorce.

Better, don't get married if you're going to get a divorce.

:-)

Introvert said...

Start with grammar - that seems to be you area or expertise.

These days, I don't even have the energy for that.

Two publications that never have grammar mistakes are the New York Times and the New Yorker magazine; reading them is a breath of fresh air.

I do occasionally see errors in the Times Colonist and in the Globe and Mail. I wrote to the managing editor of the Globe and Mail once, after encountering a few particularly egregious mistakes that a simple proofread would have eliminated. The result? An overly defensive and snarky reply. Not unlike the replies I get from Just Jack.

totoro victoria said...

Did patriotz just use a happy face?

CS said...

@Patriotz
Re: Cyprus is just a cut above Greece and their banking system is essentially a conduit for Russian money laundering, which is why bank deposits were hit. ...

You can put the paranoid fantasies for Canada to bed.

See Mish:

Canada Discusses Forced Depositor Bail-In Procedures for "Too Big To Fail" Banks in 2013 Budget

dasmo said...

That article is fear mongering at its best... I'm pretty sure they mean bonds and not deposits. Our entire financial system is faith based and constantly sits on a precipice of disaster. This proposed legislation is meant to move us a step back from that edge I believe.

koozdra said...

"A line of credit is the most flexible option, Regan-Pollock says. “If for some reason you can’t meet your monthly expenses, a line of credit on your home can be a very good buffer. The interest rates are low — typically prime or prime plus one per cent, depending on the institution and your qualifications. It’s also quite sustainable, since your home will often appreciate in value more than the amount of debt being drawn down against it.”"

OMG!! like I can take out money from my house and then spend it and then I get it for free. Canada is da bomb!!

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/03/27/canada-housing-retirement/?__lsa=700e-4041

Marko said...

Month is finishing out very slowly I don't think we will get to 500 sales this month.

Alexandrahere said...

Kind of a cutie pie at 910 Lucas.

Sold for $370K and assessed at $444K. It is a 2 bed, L/R, D/R, Kit, Fam Rm & 2 bath semi-detached rancher with almost 1300 Sq Ft.
It is in a nice enough area and is almost like a SFH as the other side fronts on another street.

At 20% down the mort. would be $296K and with a 25 yr mort, 5yr term at 2.89% your monthly payment would be $1284. You could probably get $1600 per month if it had to be rented out. Not too bad of an investment as the amount going initially on interest would be $708 per month plus taxes. On the $74K down you would get maybe 2.85% on a conservative GIC locked in over 5 yrs. You would get $2109K per year on the investment minus say 30% income tax thus clearing $1476 per yr or $123.00 per month.

Justrenter said...

Marko, could you tell me how much did MLS® 319783 sell for?
Thank you

dasmo said...

So who else has been investing in robotics related companies like I have? All my picks are up 10% so far for the year. Like it or not The robot age is coming so you might as well capitalize on it before they farm you for energy....

patriotz said...

"You could probably get $1600 per month if it had to be rented out."

Think so? This place is pretty close:

$1107 / 4br - 4 bedroom Co-Op Townhouse (Saanich)

Of course I guess you could rent for more if you were less picky about tenants.

dasmo said...

That "Co-Op Townhouse" is at 4030 Lochside Drive. Next door to the george tripp substation. It's also Co-Op housing which is meant to be bellow market and more affordable to people who need it...

Marko said...

Marko, could you tell me how much did MLS® 319783 sell for?

Showing as current in my system.

subprime11 said...

If we refer to the asset bubble graph attatched then where in the cycle do you think Canadian Real Estate falls right now?

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-bubble-lifecycle.php

a simple man said...

Bull trap.

yogurt said...

I liked 910 Lucas a lot, but it was one bedroom too small for us. If we had a smaller family, I'd rent it for $1600 no problem.

The 4-bedroom $1100 coop townhouse is definitely an anomaly. Way below market.

Indeed, any 3-bedroom rentals in Lake Hill are rare. Check Padmapper: there's usually a big empty space bounded by Quadra, Royal Oak, Blenkinsop, McKenzie.
http://imgur.com/YHBRR1a

yogurt said...

^ Looking at Padmapper again, I think what that image really shows is that rental housing in the region is mainly east of Shelbourne and south of McKenzie.

a simple man said...

Saw two houses in estevan yesterday. Still asking insane prices for questionable housing. It caused me to seriously reconsider the area. It is out of whack.

Introvert said...

Still asking insane prices for questionable housing.

Welcome to the new reality.

subprime11 said...


@simple man - estevan houses.
Agreed that place on Hamiota is out of whack. I hope no-one is dumb enough to pay even close to their asking price of $779K.

a simple man said...

Yes, Hamiota left me shaking my head. if that is the new reality, then we have a bigger fall coming than I imagined.

Introvert said...

... then we have a bigger fall coming than I imagined.

You guys do have excellent imaginations.

a simple man said...

Thanks, intovert. One of the greatest gifts we can have for innovation.

koozdra said...

Introvert's home buying decision process

koozdra said...

"Not only is that a far better deal than Canada’s current 10-year fixed rates of 3.69 per cent, the maximum term most lenders will offer, but it’s a great way to guard against an inevitable rise in interest rates down the road."

Someone should let someone over at McLean's know that rates rising are not "inevitable". We all know that rates won't rise any time soon. That would be really bad. We really really don't want that to happen. So it won't. Continue shopping.

Canadians look south at home loan heaven

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