Dec 15 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Updated Dec 22

	Dec 2014				Dec  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	112	198	306		355
New Listings	148	271	348		437
Active Listings	3455	3406	3301		3554
Sales to New Listings	76%	73%	88%		81%
Sales Projection	--	455	469
Months of Inventory					10

We won't be hitting the estimate as sales will drop off significantly at the tail end of the month.    Likely closer to 400.    Some signs of a slowdown with the Teranet composite down 0.3% in November with many cities showing a decline, including yours truly.  CMHC also continues to tinker, hiking fees to insure mortgage backed securities by up to 200%.

Update:  A while back there was some chatter about the appreciation rates of condos and single family homes.   I would think that since "they ain't making any more land", the appreciation rate for condos would lag that of SFHs.   So I took a simplistic look at the appreciation rates for both over all 5 year periods over the last 25 odd years and here's the result.

The rates are closer than I thought, but there definitely is a difference between the two.   Average 5 year appreciation is 38% for SFHs, and 32% for condos (or ~1% a year).   I would suspect that a re-sale based index would show a somewhat wider difference.
The condo market is also a bit more volatile, with a range from a 20% drop over 5 years to a 128% increase, while SFHs have ranged from a drop of only 7% to an increase of 109%.

Nov 25 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Nov 2014				Nov  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	137	234	357		412
New Listings	195	366	516		698
Active Listings	3722	3685	3639		4017
Sales to New Listings	70%	64%	69%		59%
Sales Projection	--	468	476
Months of Inventory					9.8

Nov 10 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Nov 2014				Nov  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	137				412
New Listings	195				698
Active Listings	3722				4017
Sales to New Listings	70%				59%
Sales Projection	--
Months of Inventory					9.8

Pretty comparable sales to this week last year but with somewhat lower inventory and fewer new listings coming online.

Oct 20 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Oct 2014				Oct  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	83	230	356		512
New Listings	178	393	556		979
Active Listings	4100	4060	3988		4322
Sales to New Listings	47%	59%	64%		52%
Sales Projection	--	661	630
Months of Inventory					8.4

There has been some discussion about this piece of "analysis" by a mortgage broker.  His theory is that when interest rates go up, so do prices.  Apparently in the last 30 years, increasing mortgage rates lead to increasing prices 62% of the time 2 months later.  Never mind that the two month lag is never justified (as Just Jack said, a 3 month rate hold would blow that out of the water).  The obvious gaping hole in this theory is that prices have been increasing for most of that 30 year period, so it's not at all surprising that 62% of the months they went up.  If someone were to care to evaluate the entire period they would probably find more than 62% of months that showed increasing prices.

Oct 14 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Oct 2014				Oct  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	83	230			512
New Listings	178	393			979
Active Listings	4100	4060			4322
Sales to New Listings	47%	59%			52%
Sales Projection	--	661
Months of Inventory					8.4

Per Marko's request.  We're still (almost) the weakest market in the country for the past 7 years.  Edged out Edmonton in the last couple months but I suspect when September numbers are out we will be in last place.

What it cost to run our house.

In case anyone is wondering what it costs to run a pretty typical house, here is ours for last year:

Gordon head, 1970s build, ~2100sqft.   2 adults 1 child upstairs, 1 adult in suite downstairs.

Month	Hydro	Gas	Water/Sewer /Garbage	Property Tax	Insurance
January	$172.67	$86.25	$200.91
February	$164.64	$104.95
March	$164.64	$78.70
April	$96.83	$78.29
May	$96.83	$65.17
June	$57.49	$59.59	$222.13
July	$57.49	$45.90		$2,897.88	$957.00
August	$57.69	$79.23
September	$57.69	$70.33
October	$110.68	$50.91	$263.32
November	$110.68	$75.68
December	$172.67	$86.47
Total Utilities	$2,888.00
Total	$6,743.00

Heating is a heat pump with gas backup and baseboards downstairs.  Gas for hot water and 2 fireplaces (rarely used).   

So even without factoring the mortgage in, it costs about $560/month to keep the place operating.   Adding in mortgage interest, that goes to $1450/month.    Nothing big on maintenance, but the new gutters and some random Home Depot excursions probably added up to another $100/month.

Sept 29 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Sept 2014				Sept  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	105	232	362	511	487
New Listings	325	580	810	1034	1106
Active Listings	4293	4310	4280	4261	4547
Sales to New Listings	32%	40%	45%	49%	44%
Sales Projection	462	510	530	562
Months of Inventory					9.3

Hey it's an update.  By the way thanks Dasmo for posting the article about the true cost of commuting a few weeks ago.  That lead me to discover Mr. Money Moustache and I've been devouring that blog from start to finish ever since.   Next project: early retirement / financial independence.
Amazing how I didn't stumble across this blog before, given that I suspect there are quite a few commenters here that follow this philosophy.  I'm particularly interested in how realistic the early retirement concept is in an expensive city like Victoria.  Unlike Mr. Money Moustache, our house didn't cost $200,000, we're not retired before having kids (and thus childcare), and most everything is more money in Canada than in the US.  However everyone can still use a good punch in the face as far as spending is concerned.
Bonus:  an entirely new set of spreadsheets to create, and there's nothing like a good spreadsheet to get the adrenaline going.

September

So...   how 'bout this heat?

An unexpected joy of homeownership came up this summer, twice even.  That is scraping egg off stucco that some local teenagers tossed at the house.   Or maybe it was info reminding me to put another damn post up before we hit 500 comments.

Well not much has changed in September, but more and more the market seems to be stabilizing.   Is it a plateau?  Is it a rebound?  Is there a dead cat involved?  Although we hardly fell fast enough to bounce.  Time to update the spreadsheet and see if any particular graph looks interesting enough to post.

Here's one:

Since the market peak in 2010 we had steadily worsening conditions for three whole years.  Every month the inventory grew and sales flagged.  But since mid 2013 there has been a reversal that has been remarkably consistent.   MOI has been dropping for over a year now while prices slowly creep up.   Will this turn around without more government intervention?   Or maybe the 112,000 lost private sector jobs in August will temper the trend all on its own.

Incomes versus prices: what say the numbers?

Statistics Canada released a report of household earnings based on 2012 reported income recently. Depending on your POV, you may or may not be surprised to learn Calgarians reported the highest earnings in the nation. Thought it may be fun to compare 2012 earnings with 2014 average home prices as reported by CREA for a few towns in the Great White North.

City	Median income	Average price	Price/Income
Calgary	$98,300	$466,994	4.75
Edmonton	$96,030	$371,839	3.87
Ottawa	$94,230	$365,366	3.87
St. John's	$87,150	$349,649	4.01
Victoria	$81,580	$496,225	6.08
Canada	$74,540	$413,215	5.54
Vancouver	$71,140	$796,714	11.19
Toronto	$71,210	$568,953	7.99

I was surprised by the incomes reported in Victoria. I would have thought they'd be closer to Vancouver. Perhaps not unexpected is the fact that the two most expensive towns to own a home are also below the national average for income. It's not completely clear what the inputs for "average home price" are in CREA's system, but I'd wager they're lumping and smoothing condos, semi-detached and detached. 

Useful exercise? Thoughts? I'm sure some of the more number savvy folks around here can improve upon my Grade 3 level analysis in the comments. 

July update

Busy times at work and home, so haven't had much time for the blog lately. Of course the small matter that we're no longer house hunting in Victoria plays a role.   However the comments are great as always, so here's another post to keep the party going.   

June numbers are out and I'm happy to see that a bit of the old VREB salesman spark is back.  It's a good time to buy and a good time to sell, so everyone should be happy, most of all the realtors.  It was looking like a mass extinction event was underway for Victoria realtors, but this upswing could forestall that.

Year over year sales increases are starting to peter out, mostly because we're starting to compare to months where it was already picking up last year.  Prices up a bit in the core, down a bit on the west shore.

Marko reports that many buyers are holding on to their rentals to get a better price.  Just like they were last year, and the year before, and the year before that.   Eventually, "I'll hold out another year" turns into "f*ck it let's sell".

May results and a whine from the mortgage industry

May numbers are in, and they're about as expected.  714 sales which puts us on the low middle between a hot market (963 in May 2007) and a moribund one (572 in May 2011).   Prices are well within the margin of noise, with SFH medians up a bit, and townhouses and condos flat.

Just Jack has it right when he says that the market is very fragmented.  There are both reasonably good deals in certain segments, while others have barely declined at all.  The best options price-wise seem to be those houses that have one or two little defects, or a few year old condos.  Unless that condo is cash flow positive, it's likely a losing proposition in the foreseeable future.

While Victoria's market is spectacularly unexciting, the rest of the country seems to be doing ok, with just a few cracks showing in such unimportant places like Halifax and Quebec..  and Ottawa...  and Montreal.  Not to worry.   However just in case there is something to worry about - like more government regulation - the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals are either hosting their annual get together for hay fever suffers (CAAMP ACCHA!), or have released their spring quarterly report.    In there they conclude that the 2012 mortgage changes were inappropriate, in that they apparently didn't do much to slow price appreciation in Canada.

Otherwise there isn't much of interest, mostly because the survey isn't worth a lot.  When they claim that average Canadian homeowner equity has increased by 6 percentage points in 6 months, you can pretty much judge the validity of the rest of the numbers.

One interesting tidbit:  Adding up the increased payments and lump sum payments, we get 12 billion in additional mortgage pay down in 2013.   Pretty impressive right?  Except at the same time home owners extracted $52.7 billion in equity out of their homes.  Well I'm sure the economy won't miss that $40 billion in spending when that well dries up.

May 20 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	May 2014				May  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	229	406			659
New Listings	572	909			1428
Active Listings	4512	4578			4783
Sales to New Listings	40%	45%			46%
Sales Projection	719	687*
Months of Inventory					7.3

*Counting the stat as a weekday.  

It's looking awful fishy out there

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	May 2014				May  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	229				659
New Listings	572				1428
Active Listings	4512				4783
Sales to New Listings	40%				46%
Sales Projection	719
Months of Inventory					7.3

More listings piling on and lower sales/list than last year.  Seems the market is equalizing again or as Marko says "a whole lot of boring".

End of month numbers are no different.  The more data we get, the more it seems the decline went from 2010 to 2012, with flat afterwards.  It took a big shift in sales mix to keep median prices flat during the inventory spike after the 2012 CMHC changes, but stay flat they did.  I wonder what the sales mix is like these days?

Another brick is pulled

Just when the Victoria market was starting to show some signs of life after four years of decline, the noose is tightened a bit more.

First off, the BC Financial Institutions Commission (FICOM) is proposing a set of Residential Mortgage Underwriting Guidelines to bring BC credit unions (who are not covered under the federal Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, or OSFI) in line with federal regulations restricting HELOCs to a max of 65% of the value of the mortgage, amongst other restrictions.

In an interview with CMT, Doug McLean, the Deputy Superintendent of FICOM claims that the new BC guidelines have nothing to do with the feds, but they were certainly inspired by them given the similarities.  Perhaps Doug also got a little antsy from the likes of Vancity offering a little too much lending "innovation" by letting people borrow half their minimum down payments.

The new guidelines are out for feedback, but if I know government agencies, that's hardly more than a formality and they will likely be adopted almost as is. How many people will be affected?  Impossible to say, but what's certain is this will prevent some people from extracting equity from their homes, and prevent others from qualifying to buy, thus taking some demand out of the market.

At the same time, CMHC is getting nervous again and is tightening the screws on borrowers.  CMHC has announced that they will stop insuring second homes (Finally! Which industry shill on their board thought that was ever reasonable??) and stop accepting "non-traditional" (aka fake) proof  of income for self-employed borrowers.  Again, the impact isn't huge, with those programs making up only 3% of CMHC business, but the little adjustments add up (more info on the changes here).  And CMHC isn't done yet, even announcing that more changes are coming.  Funny how things change when you throw out the industry insiders and bring in people that actually know how to regulate financial institutions.

All this comes with the chance it might destabilize our apparently stabilizing market.  After 4 years of decline and 6 years of flat prices in Victoria, it seems our market has shed some risk while the rest of the country continued to go bananas (1.3 months of inventory in Calgary right now!).  However the government remains the wildcard in this game, and they are not concerned with little Victoria.  In order to slow the nation, Victoria might get sideswiped.

April 28 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	April 2014				April  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	108	278	436	564	615
New Listings	338	695	1073	1374	1408
Active Listings	4087	4170	4289	4394	4585
Sales to New Listings	32%	40%	41%	41%	44%
Sales Projection	---	679	685	653
Months of Inventory					7.5

Just about done with April, and it's slowed down a bit from the pace we saw at the beginning of the month.  In fact, it looks like for the first time in almost a year the sales/list ratio will be lower than last year.  Sales will be higher, but if this is the start of a shift the months of YoY improvements might be over.   

April 14 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	April 2014				April  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	108	278			615
New Listings	338	695			1408
Active Listings	4087	4170			4585
Sales to New Listings	32%	40%			44%
Sales Projection	---	679
Months of Inventory					7.5

Same pace continues, sales ahead of last year.  This month might even be ok compared to more than just last year, but I don't think it'll be anything to write home about.   Teranet for March is out, flat year over year.  The beginning of the month predictor said to expect 705 sales, which should be pretty accurate given that sales are still accelerating through April.   

Tim Ayres is taking my jerb

What happened to the old spinmeisters at the VREB?   Gone are the days when we needed this blog to de-spin the VREB press release and no matter the market it was a good time to buy.  Ever since Tim took over, the press releases have been getting progressively more restrained and, dare I say it, balanced?

It starts with the title, "March 2014 Real Estate Activity in Victoria".  That's so boring I could have written it.  What happened to "Spring Market Rebounds in Victoria?" or "Buyers Frothing at the Mouth for Your Home"?  After all, sales are up almost 20% from last year.   It's here I would point out the problem with that comparison, but Tim has thought ahead; so I'm reduced to a lame "what he said".

However, the average sales for the month of March over the past five years is 607 properties per month, so though 2014 is stronger than the year previous, sales have not yet returned to the longer term average

Prices are flat according to the MLS HPI, and the market according to Tim is balanced.  "There is no extreme upward or downward pressure on housing prices right now".   Sure enough, the data agrees.

MOI of 7 is a bit less than the March of the last 3 years, but still on the high side of a balanced market.

Sales to list is again stronger than the last years, but not strong.  

I like the yearly data because it flattens out all the seasonality and minor price movements.   And something unusual is happening.  Whether due to sales mix changes or actual price increases, the yearly median price has gone up for a few months now.  That hasn't happened since the last peak in 2010.

$5000 isn't much, but it's a break from the multi-year trend we've seen.  However, as Just Jack says, if you really want to know what's going on, you have to look at the segment of the market you're interested in.

Mar 26 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	March 2014				March  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	132	259	393		483
New Listings	361	664	953		1231
Active Listings	3826	3927	4007		4333
Sales to New Listings	37%	39%	41%		39%
Sales Projection	---	543	550
Months of Inventory					9.0

On track for about 15% increase in sales over last year.  It's a misleading comparison though, because in March of 2012 we had 570 sales, in 2011 we had 622, and in 2010 there were 789.   The sales rate is still in the toilet, just not the worst we've ever seen.

By the way, is anyone actually swayed by arguments around what the average person is or isn't doing?  The average homeowner won't be in trouble.  The average Canadian doesn't buy US property.  What the heck is the average Canadian?   Anyone have a definition of average that don't make those statements completely meaningless?

Market update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	March 2014				March  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	132	259			483
New Listings	361	664			1231
Active Listings	3826	3927			4333
Sales to New Listings	37%	39%			39%
Sales Projection	---	543
Months of Inventory					9.0

Despite all appearances, House Hunt Florida continues.
And it seems so does the Victoria market.   Sales seem to be off to a strong start here, a bit of a surge unlike last year.  Do people buy houses during spring break?   If this pace continues we will eclipse last March in sales by quite a bit, and even post a somewhat respectable number.    Wonder how our new finance minister will react to his predecessor's failed efforts to tame the housing market?


Update thanks to poobserv:  Looks like I'm dyslexic and wrote 295 rather than 259.  Sales are ahead of last year's pace but not nearly as much as previously stated.

It's March

High time for the spring market to get going.   So how is it looking?  Well not that great.  The VREB has the details as always.

Marginally better sales than last year but that's nothing to write home about.   We're still far off any semblance of a good market.   

More graphs coming later, for now, here's an advertisement idea I saw for you, Marko.  Maybe hand out some flyers?

Courtesy of the League of Gentlemen.

Feb 18 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	February 2014				February  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	101	200			394
New Listings	372	588			1039
Active Listings	3556	3599			4072
Sales to New Listings	27%	34%			38%
Sales Projection	---	400
Months of Inventory					10.3

Pretty steady sales rate of 100/week.   Soon we will no longer be blowing last year's numbers out the water for sales.  But the government is getting nervous again, with some tweaks to CMHC in the 2014 budget.  If the market in the rest of the country doesn't settle down soon there will be more, and more significant ones.

January Roundup

A few days late, a few graphs short, but here's some info about how the market fared in January.  The full report is as always, over at the VREB.   Their new president, Tim Ayres (a past contributor to this blog) seems to be much more reserved with his opinions.   Of course he deals out in Sooke a lot so he has looked the decline in the eyes more than most.   Sales are up, but Tim knows it's hardly cause to celebrate given the extremely low levels last January in the depths of the hit from the mortgage changes.

Another sobering discovery that the VREB has made is the MLS HPI.  In previous years they would have trumpeted gains in the median price (up a staggering 11% Jan 2013 to 2014!!!!) but now they know this is mostly nonsense because the HPI over the same period is down 1.7%.   If you're unlucky enough to live on the peninsula, SFH prices are down just shy of 5%.

Yearly medians are edging up due to sales mix changes, a reduction in the MOI, and the dropping out of last year's very low January numbers.

Looking forward, the sales to new listings ratio gives a clue as to the direction of the market.  It has recovered from it's lows lately, and is heading to the levels seen in the late 90s, which is more in line with the flat market scenario rather than the declines we've seen in the last 4 years.  Of course all this is depending on continued low rates and no more government meddling (and you know how much they like to meddle).

Looking back at the peak, things are about the same median price wise, with SFH down 8%, condos down 12%.  Only townhouses have gone insane in recent months.  Clearly the low sales in this category make this measure far too volatile for anything other than entertainment value.  Just Jack, care to explain a $100k increase in townhouse medians within a few months?

By the way how's that affordability picture looking these days?   If Victoria were governed by more traditional definitions of what constitutes affordable housing, what would the average family be paying?   Based on the average income, 20% down, and current 5 year rates, that would be about $470,000.    So only about a $100k gap to go.

Edit:   LeoM asks: "Has anyone done a Victoria graph similar to the Toronto graph?"

Here is that:

Update:  Regraphed in 2013 dollars and with a power trend line as per Koozdra's request.

Or log scale if you wish....

Although a log scale of inflation adjusted house prices sends quite the wrong message...

Jan 27 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	January 2014				January  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	71	167	243		294
New Listings	362	610	854		1080
Active Listings	3295	3346	3340		3870
Sales to New Listings	20%	27%	28%		27%
Sales Projection	---	295	310
Months of Inventory					13.2

Surprisingly enough sales dropped second week to third, but we'll still easily exceed last year's total.  

2014 Predictions

Time for another prediction thread.  What will happen in 2014?

My guesses are:
1. VREB sales of 6200 (up slightly from 2013).
2. Greater Victoria 6 month SFH average in Dec 2014:  $580,000 (currently $593,000)
3. BoC overnight rate in Dec 2014: 1%
4. Teranet June 2014: 128 (currently 133)
5. Teranet Dec 2014: 124

As for macro events, the larger economy will be sluggish and boring, with Canada not making any headway on unemployment in 2014.  We will be teetering on the edge of deflation, and if the Bank of Canada is going anywhere it is more likely to be to cut rates than to raise them.   The US will slowly dial back stimulus but in baby steps.  Fixed mortgage rates within a narrow range of current values.

We are off the recent peak of months of inventory as the last mortgage changes worked their way through the market, but as the rest of the country goes gangbusters, I suspect there will be more tweaking of the CMHC this year.   Something less headline grabbing than a reduction in the amortizations, perhaps a tweak to the maximum TDS ratios.

Edit:  And the monthly numbers from Marko

	January 2014				January  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	71	167			294
New Listings	362	610			1080
Active Listings	3295	3346			3870
Sales to New Listings	20%	27%			27%
Sales Projection	---	295
Months of Inventory					13.2

The linear sales projection is meaningless in a month like January where sales increase strongly from the first weeks.  We'll be well over 300.

Jan 13 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	January 2014				January  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	71				294
New Listings	362				1080
Active Listings	3295				3870
Sales to New Listings	20%				27%
Sales Projection	---
Months of Inventory					13.2

You can tell it was a blustery rainy weekend by the number of comments and number of mentions of Phoenix.  Sales total should be around 360 if current pace continues..

Happy New Years your home lost value again

Hey it's a new year.  To get the year started on an positive note, home owners around the Greater Victoria area will be getting their assessment to let them know how many tens of thousands of dollars their largest asset declined by this year.

It's a mixed bag out there, but negative across the board.

Read the complete article on the Times Colonist

A whopping 10% decline in Metchosin, but who cares about those farmers, here in Oak Bay we are insulated.   Yep, a paltry $2000/month decline in value for the standard house there.  

Our assessment is down 4.6%.  Interestingly enough, the bank assessment done in June 2013, was 5% higher than the 2013 BC assessed value which is supposed to reflect value as of July 2013.  Seems like quite the variation.  Either banks like higher assessments, or the appraisal procedure consists of taking the current BC assessment and adding or subtracting a random small number (Just Jack are you offended yet?).   Also apparently the land lost value, while the building increased.  Didn't know that buildings age like wine...   Or maybe they noticed that I scraped the moss off the roof?  

The more sophisticated measures of price have made it clear that despite static medians and averages, the market continues to decline.   Assessments down 2% to 5%, and MLS HPI and Teranet both down 2.4%.  As you can see, the median price declines have flattened out due to changes in the sales mix, while the months of inventory has recovered from our little government meddling last year.   I would expect median prices to start declining again in 2014.

The VREB continues to expand the information they provide, which is great to see.  Many real estate boards are very secretive with information, so despite the interesting spin in their summaries, I commend whoever is crunching the numbers over there for making them all public.  Now please archive the full news release every month, not just the price summaries :)

Thanks to everyone for your contributions and comments on the blog last year.  It'd be a boring place without your input.