Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Census numbers for the period 2001-2006 are out. Interesting that these dates coincide approximately with the CRD housing run-up and bubble.

Highlights:
  • CRD increase of 5.8% (previous census 1996-2001 showed 4.9% provincially)
  • Westshore increases in the double digits: View Royal 20.6%; Langford 19.2%
  • Saanich still largest but growth of under average at 4.4%
  • Downtown up 17.5% (large number of new condos credited)
  • B.C. birthrate of 1.4 is one of lowest nationally
  • immigration cited as source of growth

While the number of people in the CRD grew, so did the housing costs.

Condos

(year)[total sales]Average price

(2001) [1169] $138K

(2002) [1451] $151K

(2003) [1712] $183K

(2004) [2018] $216K

(2005) [2279] $252K

(2006) [2140] $286K

Houses

(2001) [4096] $259K

(2002) [4430] $280K

(2003) [4477] $328K

(2004) [4285] $386K

(2005) [4214] $463K

(2006) [4008] $521K

But census showed growth in 1996-2001 as well, and the housing price indexes aren't reflective. While population grew, house prices remained flat.

Condos

(1996) [1379] $148K

(1997) [1199] $151K

(1998) [1008] $155K

(1999) [891] $150K

(2000) [768] $143K

Houses

(1996) [3812] $242K

(1997) [3639] $249K

(1998) [3145] $246K

(1999) [3228] $250K

(2000) [3220] $251K

Anyone know where to find historical data on the number of listings? It seems from the above data almost impossible to make a correlation between population growth and housing prices. The missing info may be the most telling piece of data, or it may not.

Another interesting tidbit of info is that in 1996 the vacancy rate in Victoria was 4%; today it is 0.5%. Does this mean more people that come here rent? In which case, it would support the rumour that the job growth is fuelled more by service workers making sub $20/hour than professionals and the like who have average household incomes of $100K/year plus. If it takes $134K/year to finance the average house price in Victoria, then one of two things is going to happen in short order: house prices are coming down, or incomes are going up.

Given the near-recession-like numbers emerging in the US, and the losses on the DOW and TSX of this month, safe bet is incomes won't be increasing anytime soon. Anyone else see the pin peering around the corner with a look of glee on its face as the bubble comes bumbling down the street completely oblivious?

Bonus points if you can tell me how to put tables in blogger...

2 comments:

Roger Need said...

Complete historical stats here:

http://myvictoria.ca/marketupdate/history.htm

HHV said...

Thanks Roger,

I'm looking more for something like this:
link text

But going back over the year's to 1996. Maybe I'm lost, I was just thinking it would be interesting to see sales-to-list ratios for year over year between 1996-2006.