This will be the first time we've done numbers up week over week. So if they seem like insignificant changes it's because the previous two 'market watch posts' have used 3 and 2 week periods respectively. From here on we plan to do this up weekly on Friday mornings. I may do a low-end market monthly re-cap on the last day of the month in March?
We're only watching low-end houses; what we deem to be affordable anyway, criteria below.
[criteria is suited, or suite potential, under $425K in SW, SE, Vic, Langford, ESQ]
Total houses: 71 (66); 5 new listings, significant drop from 18 for last two-week period
Number sold: 35 (30); 5 above previous
Sold above asking price: 1 (2); again, I counted sold at asking as above, I've noticed that anything in the CedarHill neighbourhood in this price range is fetching above asking. This one was a 'handyman special' that sold for $25K above, and almost $400K
Sold below asking price: 4 (11)
Average days on the market: 37 (27); 3 houses with over 100 DOM sold this week
Listings to sales ratio: 71/35 = 2.03 months inventory (66/30 = 2.2); slight decline
[criteria is 2 beds, at least 1 bath, under $250K in SW, SE, Vic, Langford, ESQ]
Total condos: 109 (96); 13 new listings, slight decline from last 2 weeks 29 new lists
Number sold: 38 (32); 6 above previous week; 1 taken off market
Sold above asking price: 0 (5); again, I counted sold at asking as above
Sold below asking price: 6 (8); sales down from last week by 7
Average days on the market: 24 (23); slight gain
Listings to sales ratio: 109/38 = 2.86 months inventory (96/32 = 3) I'm confused by this outcome. If we have 13 new listings and only 6 sales, inventory should climb right? Not by this math... there must be a margin of error, or I'm completely of my math rocker, which wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.
Our Thoughts: maybe one week's worth of numbers isn't enough to extrapolate anything out of. There were quite a few price changes this week. One dandy downfall from $245K to $200K; still unsold. Our gut is telling us that the low-end condo market is cooling rapidly. The first couple of weeks of March is proving nothing like February. We think the market is speaking. Even our realtor is saying, don't worry, there's no pressure to buy anything, listings will be on the rise in April and May and the selection will get better.
The CedarHill, Maplewood and Mt Tolmie neighbourhoods are still moving. They're nice places to live and most homes are priced closer to $500K, so the ones we see are either experiencing some price compression or are anomalies in this market. Langford used market is slow. This is probably because you can buy new for the same price (you just get a much smaller footprint and lot).
Interesting topic at Victoria's Truth this week. We'll be reading it intently. Seems like a lengthy comments section will grow out of it!