Friday, March 9, 2007

Friday Low-end Market Watch

Start of watch-period is January 31. No houses or units removed from the list so the previous counts about two weeks ago have numbers added to them. I'll put previous numbers in brackets.

These are the numbers from the end of the market we're paying close attention to:

[criteria is suited, or suite potential, under $425K in SW, SE, Vic, Langford, ESQ]

Total houses: 66 (48); 18 new listings

Number sold: 30 (17); 13 above previous

Sold above asking price: 2 (10); again, I counted sold at asking as above.

Sold below asking price: 11 (7); Biggest discount was from $394,888 (original price $400K) to $375K or $21K for 18%

Average days on the market: 27 (11); that's a big jump kiddies from February 22. Take it for what it is though: anecdotal evidence at best and quite possibly skewed by houses that had been on market for 100+ days that sold.

Listings to sales ratio: 66/30 = 2.2 months inventory (48/17 = 2.82)

[criteria is 2 beds, at least 1 bath, under $250K in SW, SE, Vic, Langford, ESQ]

Total condos: 96 (67); 29 new listings

Number sold: 32 (19); 13 above previous; 4 taken off market

Sold above asking price: 5 (7); again, I counted sold at asking as above (although there was one gem with an asking of $239K that went for $267K.

Sold below asking price: 8 (12)

Average days on the market: 23 (23); no change

Listings to sales ratio: 96/32 = 3 months inventory (67/19 = 3.52)

Our thoughts: If you look at inventory, the numbers have come down in the past couple of weeks in our market. This isn't reflective of the whole market, just the bottom end. Is it possible to take anything away from this analysis then? If this is a start of a trend, then as a buyer I'm worried. But if this is just a two week blip, then no panic necessary.

If you look at sales to price ratios on the condo side approximately the same number sold above asking as in the previous watch period (which was actually longer by over a week). On the houses side though, we see a significant drop in the number of homes that sold above asking.

We know there are a myriad of ways to make a home look like a bidding war took place, or for an owner to get asking price, so we won't attempt to read too much into these numbers.

I have to admit, I'm more confused by this analysis than reassured. Your thoughts?

Tomorrow: we trying to get into 5 condo units for viewings.

7 comments:

HHV said...

had to post this...

"FLIP THIS HOUSE Carpenter Handy Man's Dream Home 1913 character on a private level city lot in the heart of Victoria 3 BLOCKS to THE GORGEOUS "Gorge"Waterway & near the new improved Tillicum Mall. High ceilings woodburning FP, wood floors 2 main floor bedms, 3rd bedm/den up loft style: + UNFINISHED large Basement. Newer Roof, home needs some major updating seller had just a bldg inspection done : It is said to be a Solid home but elderly sellers lived here over 40 years."

This was the description for the most recent listing I have. All I can say is wow...

VictoriaREBear said...

So what's the asking price for this Victoria dream home?

hhv said...

$319K

Osiris_Vic said...

I am looking at sfh under 400 and currentoy there are 67 houses for the areas I am interested. This is up againfrom last week, though last week was down from 2 weeks prior. It seem that 60 is a fairly stable number, less than that and new houses and price drops seem to come quick (2 price drops and 5 new listings today from my info sheet). Once it gets higher it seems nothing new comes for a while until we get back to around 60.

This is a little frustrating and a little encouraging at the same time for me. Yes, places are selling all over the map, up and down from asking, but the inventory doesn't really seem to be going up or down in my criteria.

As for that victoria dream home, I am going to drive by it tonight, as it is just down the road from me, to see what it looks like. I'll let you know later.

hhv said...

My favourite part of the marketing statement is FLIP THIS HOUSE.

I'll await your report Osiris on the dreamhome...

Osiris_Vic said...

Didn't get to go by but the pictures are up now on mls. Is that thing with a stove jutting out the side of it the kitchen? I guess the price reflects the fact you will have to do a full kitchen.

hhv said...

Yeah, that kitchen is tiny. But surprisingly, the house and property doesn't look anywhere near as bad as I had expected.