Hey Olive. I have to say this is now my fav site, he's done a great job with the graphics and info. Many great contributers as well. I left you a msg on KIV. Stormy
I have one actually, she's 4. (a while back I think I said I had two to throw someone off my tail in that forum - KIV scrap) Anyway just ran the idea past the husband he's into it. Also I really dont want to hijack what's going on on this site, love to read pure #'s and stats related to housing so what about starting a finance meeting thread on KIV? Can you email me? Thanks Stormy
A number of posters have been commenting on the number of listings this week. Between Sunday (April 8) and Friday (April 13) 276 new listings appeared on the MLS. That is over 50 a day folks.
This is a good thing for the Victoria real estate market for the following reasons:
1. There is an unlimited number of first time buyers and we need lots of supply to meet the demand.
2. Everyone wants to move here so now they have plenty of choice.
3. With more properties available there are now more ways for all the speculators to make the easy money.
4. Real estate agents now have more properties to show the buyers. The sellers are happy too because most want to move up to bigger houses and they have more choice too. Whats the use of having all that extra disposable income if you can't spend it??
5. More listings results in a "stable, balanced market" and most real estate agents want to return to "healthy" conditions. It just didn't feel right taking ever increasing commissions as the prices went up.
excellent summary, but you missed the most important element attached to a big increase in listings - a big increase in commissions! 'Cause all those properties will sell.
This is going to be the best summer to be a realtor, ever!
I recommend all stay at home moms and retired dads write the real estate test as soon as possible, because the gravy train is leaving the station!
I'm quitting my job and taking the real estate agents course. After that life will be forever rosy. Doing good by helping people get into a home and also making wacks of money. It doesn't get any better.
"Listings are up big, sales are down small and prices are up. I've been told that we are in the dead cat bounce.
Any one think the same thing?"
Hope your not taking financial advice from that person,LOL. A deadcat bounce is when the price has tanked bigtime, ask that question in say the next year or so.
I don't check the Langford listings very often but WOW are there ever a lot of big expensive houses for sale in the Bear Mountain/Florence Lake area. I didn't look at them all but many were built in "2006" and appeared empty from the photos.
One other said that the seller was motivated because they had already purchased another property - there were Christmas decorations in the photos! (not very motivated I'd say)
Wouldn't that be a strange looking neighbourhood on Bear Mountain if it just suddenly came to a half as-is - in its partially built and excavated state - how yucky.
A small and temporary recovery in a financial market following a large fall.
When a financial market suffers a consistent fall traders attempt to detect when prices are at their lowest and then buy stocks hoping for a bargain. If they buy too soon prices may rise temporarily but then decline again. This is called the dead cat bounce. The idea being that even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it from a great height."
You are correct. We have not had a dead cat bounce yet because we have not had a sharp decline in prices yet. It will be very interesting when it does happen though.
So then, can anyone explain to me why people are still buying when prices have risen and there is more stock to pick from?
So then, can anyone explain to me why people are still buying when prices have risen and there is more stock to pick from?
The conspirasist in me has sometimes wondered if VREB is fudging the numbers. But of course, integrity flows through their veins like the rest of the industry, right?
Olives, I agree but it seems like the only news that is saying anything is the US news and, as we all know, what is happening in the US won't happen up here and has nothing to do with what is happening up here.
Single Family listings are up some 40 percent from the 90 day period of last year to the same period this year.
Sales are down an insignificant 8 percent.
Sales to Listings ratio is down from 0.75 (sellers market) from this 90 day time period last year to 0.5 indicating a balanced market. BUT, price are up some 6.5 percent from this time last year.
Mmmm, still to early to call it a "Dead Cat Bounce". But if demand drops in the next few weeks or listings continue to sky rocket, so that the sales to listings ratio drops below 0.3 (definite buyers market) and prices STILL go up. Yep, thats Barnum & Bailey territory. "A suckers born every minute" and that would be a Dead Cat Bounce.
Single Family listings are up some 40 percent from the 90 day period of last year to the same period this year.
Where do you find this stat? MLS listings are only up 20%, but that is for everything (condos, TH etc) so I'm not saying your number is wrong, just I don't know where to find the info. If your number is correct its interesting that condos and THs haven't increased listings at all but SFHs have by so much.
Okay, Its really simple. You take all of the properties that were listed for sale within a 90 day period, Say from January 1, 2007 to the end of March. This would include the homes that were listed and that sold in that same period -afterall they were LISTED. Your numbers are most likely only showing what is currently up for sale and do not include the ones that were listed and sold in that period.
Also, I am only using Single Family Homes in the Capital Area which includes: Victoria, Saanich East, Saanich West, Esquimalt, View Royal, Vic West, and Oak Bay in my sample.
And your right, the explosion is in the single family home listings. What I believed happened was that in the last three months of 2006 a lot of listings were pulled from the marketplace. These were potential sellers who for what ever reason deceided that it was not a good time to sell in the fall and have waited for the spring market to relist.
Now, we are entering the prime listing and selling market months April to June were the number of listings and sales increase dramatically. And, anticipating your next question - I do not believe that this jump in listings is the spring market listings starting earlier.
My point is that in years past, the sales to listings ratio entering into this "spring market" was highly favourable to sellers. This year it is much, much different. We are entering a "spring market" from a balanced market position, buyers are under far less preasure and the days to sell a property are increasing. The rate of appreciation has been steadily dropping from 19% to about 6.5% in the period of 1 year.
As a side note. If we had started at 0 percent year over year appreciation one year ago - this would mean that today we would be talking about a fall in prices of the difference (19-6.5) of 12.5% and our discussion board would not be speaking of how high prices can go but how low will they fall.
I expect that by the end of the second quarter the listing to sales ratio to be in favour of buyers and the average exposure days to sell a property to extend to over 50 days. Also, our year to year appreciation rate will be nearer the zero mark.
22 comments:
This is my first time here and I look forward to checking it out. I also want to say hi to Stormy and Harmony!
Hey Olive. I have to say this is now my fav site, he's done a great job with the graphics and info. Many great contributers as well. I left you a msg on KIV.
Stormy
Hi Olives and stormy.
It is a great site. I hope that HHV and everyone else has learnt a lot from being on here. I know I have.
I've posted on KIV about meeting up after stormy gets back from holidays so we can discuss housing and finances in person.
How old are your kids? Ours is 2.
S2 (aka Harmony)
I have one actually, she's 4. (a while back I think I said I had two to throw someone off my tail in that forum - KIV scrap) Anyway just ran the idea past the husband he's into it. Also I really dont want to hijack what's going on on this site, love to read pure #'s and stats related to housing so what about starting a finance meeting thread on KIV? Can you email me? Thanks Stormy
A number of posters have been commenting on the number of listings this week. Between Sunday (April 8) and Friday (April 13) 276 new listings appeared on the MLS. That is over 50 a day folks.
This is a good thing for the Victoria real estate market for the following reasons:
1. There is an unlimited number of first time buyers and we need lots of supply to meet the demand.
2. Everyone wants to move here so now they have plenty of choice.
3. With more properties available there are now more ways for all the speculators to make the easy money.
4. Real estate agents now have more properties to show the buyers. The sellers are happy too because most want to move up to bigger houses and they have more choice too. Whats the use of having all that extra disposable income if you can't spend it??
5. More listings results in a "stable, balanced market" and most real estate agents want to return to "healthy" conditions. It just didn't feel right taking ever increasing commissions as the prices went up.
So we have a win-win situation :>)
Listings are up big, sales are down small and prices are up. I've been told that we are in the dead cat bounce.
Any one think the same thing?
S2
Roger -
excellent summary, but you missed the most important element attached to a big increase in listings - a big increase in commissions! 'Cause all those properties will sell.
This is going to be the best summer to be a realtor, ever!
I recommend all stay at home moms and retired dads write the real estate test as soon as possible, because the gravy train is leaving the station!
I'm quitting my job and taking the real estate agents course. After that life will be forever rosy. Doing good by helping people get into a home and also making wacks of money. It doesn't get any better.
"Listings are up big, sales are down small and prices are up. I've been told that we are in the dead cat bounce.
Any one think the same thing?"
Hope your not taking financial advice from that person,LOL.
A deadcat bounce is when the price has tanked bigtime, ask that question in say the next year or so.
Roger,
Your posts nearly always make me spit my coffee on my laptop :) Keep it up good man.
I don't check the Langford listings very often but WOW are there ever a lot of big expensive houses for sale in the Bear Mountain/Florence Lake area. I didn't look at them all but many were built in "2006" and appeared empty from the photos.
One other said that the seller was motivated because they had already purchased another property - there were Christmas decorations in the photos! (not very motivated I'd say)
Wouldn't that be a strange looking neighbourhood on Bear Mountain if it just suddenly came to a half as-is - in its partially built and excavated state - how yucky.
"halt" not half oops
"Dead Cat Bounce:
Meaning
A small and temporary recovery in a financial market following a large fall.
When a financial market suffers a consistent fall traders attempt to detect when prices are at their lowest and then buy stocks hoping for a bargain. If they buy too soon prices may rise temporarily but then decline again. This is called the dead cat bounce. The idea being that even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it from a great height."
You are correct. We have not had a dead cat bounce yet because we have not had a sharp decline in prices yet. It will be very interesting when it does happen though.
So then, can anyone explain to me why people are still buying when prices have risen and there is more stock to pick from?
S2
So then, can anyone explain to me why people are still buying when prices have risen and there is more stock to pick from?
The conspirasist in me has sometimes wondered if VREB is fudging the numbers. But of course, integrity flows through their veins like the rest of the industry, right?
S2,
People are still buying because some people don't ready any news or have a clue what is going on in the world around them.
Olives, I agree but it seems like the only news that is saying anything is the US news and, as we all know, what is happening in the US won't happen up here and has nothing to do with what is happening up here.
S2/Harmony
Looking for the "Dead Cat Bounce"
Single Family listings are up some 40 percent from the 90 day period of last year to the same period this year.
Sales are down an insignificant 8 percent.
Sales to Listings ratio is down from 0.75 (sellers market) from this 90 day time period last year to 0.5 indicating a balanced market. BUT, price are up some 6.5 percent from this time last year.
Mmmm, still to early to call it a "Dead Cat Bounce". But if demand drops in the next few weeks or listings continue to sky rocket, so that the sales to listings ratio drops below 0.3 (definite buyers market) and prices STILL go up. Yep, thats Barnum & Bailey territory. "A suckers born every minute" and that would be a Dead Cat Bounce.
Siobhan
Hi Siobhan
Single Family listings are up some 40 percent from the 90 day period of last year to the same period this year.
Where do you find this stat? MLS listings are only up 20%, but that is for everything (condos, TH etc) so I'm not saying your number is wrong, just I don't know where to find the info. If your number is correct its interesting that condos and THs haven't increased listings at all but SFHs have by so much.
Okay, Its really simple. You take all of the properties that were listed for sale within a 90 day period, Say from January 1, 2007 to the end of March. This would include the homes that were listed and that sold in that same period -afterall they were LISTED. Your numbers are most likely only showing what is currently up for sale and do not include the ones that were listed and sold in that period.
Also, I am only using Single Family Homes in the Capital Area which includes: Victoria, Saanich East, Saanich West, Esquimalt, View Royal, Vic West, and Oak Bay in my sample.
And your right, the explosion is in the single family home listings. What I believed happened was that in the last three months of 2006 a lot of listings were pulled from the marketplace. These were potential sellers who for what ever reason deceided that it was not a good time to sell in the fall and have waited for the spring market to relist.
Now, we are entering the prime listing and selling market months April to June were the number of listings and sales increase dramatically. And, anticipating your next question - I do not believe that this jump in listings is the spring market listings starting earlier.
My point is that in years past, the sales to listings ratio entering into this "spring market" was highly favourable to sellers. This year it is much, much different. We are entering a "spring market" from a balanced market position, buyers are under far less preasure and the days to sell a property are increasing. The rate of appreciation has been steadily dropping from 19% to about 6.5% in the period of 1 year.
As a side note. If we had started at 0 percent year over year appreciation one year ago - this would mean that today we would be talking about a fall in prices of the difference (19-6.5) of 12.5% and our discussion board would not be speaking of how high prices can go but how low will they fall.
I expect that by the end of the second quarter the listing to sales ratio to be in favour of buyers and the average exposure days to sell a property to extend to over 50 days. Also, our year to year appreciation rate will be nearer the zero mark.
Siobhan
You take all of the properties that were listed for sale within a 90 day period, Say from January 1, 2007 to the end of March.
Sure, I get that. I mean where did you get the numbers?
The numbers I am using are from the from the vreb. But they don't split listings of SFH's off from other types of properties.
Thanks
I thought I read (in the paper?) that listings in Greater Victoria were up 46 percent over last year (and sales down 8 percent)
Listings were ~7000 for Jan Mar 2006, ~8400 for Jan Mar 2007. For 20%. Thats for all of Greater Vic, all types of properties.
Sales of SFHs were down 4 units those two periods: 995 in 2006, 991 this year. That is less than 0.5%. I didn't check the other sectors.
Sales numbers are easy to get from the VREB stats. Listings less so.
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