Heading out for greener pastures

For the first time since 1972, BC's net-immigration numbers are negative. You read that right. Despite all the HAM flowing into Richmond and Vancouver's west side, people are leaving in higher volumes than they're coming. That said, we're only talking about a number of souls that can fit into two 747's.

Which brings us to the absence of HHV from posting and discussion around here lately. We're joining the fine folks who, for whatever reason, have decided to head out for greener pastures. It should come as no surprise to those long time readers of this little corner of the interwebs that the HHVs haven't been sitting idly waiting for the market winds to shift. We've bucked the trends, stockpiled cash, paid off debt and executed a plan we're happy with. Part of this plan was on the career/earnings side and apparently people in other places took notice and, hey, good things do get offered when you put your head down and get to work.

We've decided to accept an offer that was just too good to pass up. So despite our yearning to live, work and play in Victoria for the remainder of our lives we've decided to head out on an adventure, earn more in a better role, pay less for shelter and take advantage of all the excitement a new province and city has to offer. 

And we're now homeowners. I can't tell you how refreshing it was to look at 35 houses over the course of a weekend, all more than adequate for the next 10-15 years of our lives and be able to make decisions based on non-financial factors.

As for this blog, it will continue until it dies its natural death... if you can handle it's primary author no longer living in Victoria.   

Monday market update: signals of a general strike

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Month to date April 2011 (last week's numbers in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 299 (167)
New Listings: 846 (514)
Active Listings: 4,211 (4,103) 
Current sales to new listings ratio: 35% (32%)

April 2010 totals 
Net Unconditional Sales: 756
New Listings: 1,783
Active Listings: 4,229
Sales to new listings ratio: 42%
Sales to active listings ratio: 18% or 5.6 MOI

Buyers and sellers are both on strike. Inventory is still high, but it's not growing at a rate fast enough to create significant price pressure. Keep up the discussion!

Monday market update: woah nelly!

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Month to date April 2011 (first 4 days of April in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 167 (47)
New Listings: 514 (135)
Active Listings: 4,103 (3,925)
Current sales to new listings ratio: 32%

April 2010 totals 
Net Unconditional Sales: 756
New Listings: 1,783
Active Listings: 4,229
Sales to new listings ratio: 42%
Sales to active listings ratio: 18% or 5.6 MOI

The spring listings frenzy is on. If current pace continues (and it likely won't) we'll see 1410 new listings this month. I'll put the final number closer to 1250 as the beginning of the month typically sees more listings than the end, and with a major long weekend (4 days of Easter) happening late April, I think we'll see this number slow down.

Obviously the short-term trend of declining sales volume is continuing. If current sales pace continues, we'll be hard pressed to break 500 sales for April 2011. I'll peg the final sales volume number to be somewhere around 520ish.

There's some evidence to suggest the gap between asking price and sales price is growing. There's also evidence to suggest the gap between sales price and assessed value (as per BC Assessment) is shrinking. Both of these factors suggest prices are falling (despite how VREB calculates average prices). Based on current supply demand ratios I'm tempted to suggest that negative price pressure is slight, not substantial at this time.

Further note: that last post had some significant discussion, which I'm very grateful for. Every time I wanted to publish a new post, I felt like I'd be interrupting the discussion. Thanks to all of you readers and commentators out there!   

Monday market update: 4 days of the same?

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Month to date April 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 47
New Listings: 135
Active Listings: 3,925
Current sales to new listings ratio: 35%

April 2010 totals 
Net Unconditional Sales: 756
New Listings: 1,783
Active Listings: 4,229
Sales to new listings ratio: 42%
Sales to active listings ratio: 18% or 5.6 MOI

Our local real estate market in Victoria is too small, with too few transactions, to read four days worth of data as any indication of a trend: be it a continuation of last month's activity or whatnot. But I'mmagonnadoitanyway!

In the first week of March 2011, approximately 17 units sold each day. Over the last 3 days of March 2011, approximately 26 units per day changed from active to pending in the VREB MLS system. In the first three days of April, we've seen 15 sales per day.

All this means absolutely nothing of course, but there's little indication in the sales numbers that buyers were pulled forward by the March 18th mortgage rule changes and there's no indication that the spring market is getting busier. Which is probably why around 300 listings expired at the end of March and haven't been renewed yet.

Feel free to refute my "it's not busy out there" claims with anecdotal evidence of under-priced Gordon Head homes selling in bidding wars or attracting big crowds at 2-hour long open houses on sunny Sunday afternoons.

Sales fall 21%, inventory up significantly in March

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

March 2011 (percent change from 2010 in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 622 (-21%)
New Listings: 1,501 (-13%)
Active Listings: 4,100 (+9.5%)
Sales to new listings ratio: 41%
Sales to active listings ratio: 15% or 6.6 MOI

March 2010 totals
Net Unconditional Sales: 789
New Listings: 1,719
Active Listings: 3,712
Sales to new listings ratio: 46%
Sales to active listings ratio: 21% or 4.7 MOI

Prepare for revised BCREA sales volumes forecasts soon. I have no idea how they think that sales volumes will increase from 2010 when the first three months of 2011 have shown a 20% declining trend.

If the mortgage rule changes indeed brought buyers forward (and it looks likethey may have slightly given the front-loaded sales volume in March) it didn't bring many. Are buyers exhausted, priced out or have Victorians finally figured out that paying $400K for a 2-bedroom crack shack on Burnside isn't a prudent financial decision? 

How does March 2011 stack up against the previous decade?

So why aren't prices falling yet? The trend is towards an over hang of inventory and a lack of sales volume. We're not into the trend long enough to see price pressure yet.