MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.
Month to date April 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 47
New Listings: 135
Active Listings: 3,925
Current sales to new listings ratio: 35%
April 2010 totals
Net Unconditional Sales: 756
New Listings: 1,783
Active Listings: 4,229
Sales to new listings ratio: 42%
Sales to active listings ratio: 18% or 5.6 MOI
Our local real estate market in Victoria is too small, with too few transactions, to read four days worth of data as any indication of a trend: be it a continuation of last month's activity or whatnot. But I'mmagonnadoitanyway!
In the first week of March 2011, approximately 17 units sold each day. Over the last 3 days of March 2011, approximately 26 units per day changed from active to pending in the VREB MLS system. In the first three days of April, we've seen 15 sales per day.
All this means absolutely nothing of course, but there's little indication in the sales numbers that buyers were pulled forward by the March 18th mortgage rule changes and there's no indication that the spring market is getting busier. Which is probably why around 300 listings expired at the end of March and haven't been renewed yet.
Feel free to refute my "it's not busy out there" claims with anecdotal evidence of under-priced Gordon Head homes selling in bidding wars or attracting big crowds at 2-hour long open houses on sunny Sunday afternoons.
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«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 207 of 207Monday, April 11, 2011 8:00am:
MTD April
2011 2010
Net Unconditional Sales: 167 756
New Listings: 514 1,783
Active Listings: 4,103 4,229
Please Note
•Left Column: stats so far this month
•Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year
so, 120 sales last week.
379 new listings.
31.6% sales:new listings.
Simple man,
Last night I said this spring looked real bad for sellers and agents.
I went back in the archives for this blog and found this graph by double agent...
2010 weekly sales and listings
Last year every week, starting in mid-February, had over 145 sales. This year VREB has been reporting much lower than this by around 20%.
But VREB and their lapdog the TC have been pumping this as a "balance and stable" market.
thanks JustWaiting - and lets all remember - last year was a bad year for real estate here. If this year is worse then is spells disaster for a large number of realtors.
At least half of the realtors I know already have a second job to make ends meet.
simple man,
I agree. 2011 is shaping up to be worse for sales than 2010, 2009 and 2008.
Here is another graph from the archives....
Monthly sales April 2008 - April 2010
So far 167 sales in 10 days. If we hit 600 for the month I will be surprised. This will be lower than last month and well below last year!! VREB and TC will be hard pressed to spin that.
a couple of people have noted that market collapse (or at least correction) is inevitable because "this time it's different" -- based on the assertion that our recent run-up in prices is unprecedented.
However, a look at the VREB single family house historic ave prices chart from 1967 to 2010 indicates that there certainly is precedent for the most recent run up.
I believe that if you measure trough to peak the last 3 market surges for Victoria using the VREB data/graphs and going back to say 1972, you will find the latest run-up (from 1996 to 2010) is weaker (in terms of year over year percentage increase)then the run up to peaks hit in 1981 and 1994. To me, the latest surge in prices appears to be the "norm," if not slightly anemic compared to previous market runs.
Maybe someone with a calculator can actually run the numbers for us.
I guess, rates are going to touch higher limits. I am happy to get help from commercial real estate whistler bc
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